World Population Expected To Drop For First Time Since Black Death After Mid-2080s

The size of the world’s population is set to peak and fall earlier than previous estimates suggested, according to a new report by the United Nations (UN). 

In 2024, the global population stands at around 8.2 billion. As per the new data, the number of humans will rise to approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before falling to around 10.2 billion by the end of the 21st century.

The new report, the World Population Prospects 2024, takes a deep dive into the population forecasts for 237 countries or areas, and offers some revisions of their previous estimates. 

One of the most poignant revisions is that the world’s population peak is expected to occur earlier and at a lower figure than previously realized. Additionally, the population in 2100 could be 700 million (6 percent) fewer than the figure predicted a decade ago.

There are a bunch of complex factors behind the earlier population peak, but the primary driver is simple: many parts of the world are having fewer children. 

The declining birth rates are particularly prominent in some of the world’s largest countries. Once known for its booming population, the population of China has recently dropped for the first time since the 1960s. It’s a trend that’s being seen in many other parts of the world, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and South Korea.

“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years. In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions,” Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said in a statement.

“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” he added. 

According to the new report, population size has already peaked in at least 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Out of the countries that have already peaked, the population of the group is set to drop by 14 percent over the next 30 years. 

In 48 other countries and regions – such as Brazil,  Iran, Türkiye, and Vietnam – the population is anticipated to reach its peak between 2025 and 2054. 

Meanwhile, in 126 additional countries – India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States – the population is expected to continue growing until 2054 and might peak in the latter half of the century or even later. Among these, nine countries – including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia – are projected to experience a huge population boom, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.

Bear in mind that these forecasts are not set in stone and other researchers have come to slightly different conclusions. In 2020, an influential study predicted that the global population was forecast to grow over the next few decades and peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion people, before tumbling to 8.8 billion by 2100. 

Nevertheless, whatever forecast you put your money on, practically all of them foresee a global population decline. When it occurs, the drop will be the first time the global human population has shrunk since the Black Death in the 14th century, bringing profound changes to the way humans live their lives and organize the world.