Wolves-Mavs predictions: Anonymous scout, coach, exec pick West finals

— Josh Robbins, Sam Amick, Darnell Mayberry

If you’re looking for clues about how the 2024 NBA Western Conference finals will unfold, you may come up empty if you look back on the four regular-season games between the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Minnesota won three of its four meetings against Dallas, amassing a plus-13.3 point differential over those four games.

But — and this is important — the Mavericks were undermanned in most of those games. Luka Dončić missed two of the games, a 118-110 Timberwolves victory on Dec. 28 and a 121-84 Timberwolves win on Jan. 31. Kyrie Irving did not play in three of the games, and Dallas lost all three of them.

And, keep in mind, all of Minnesota’s most important players — Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — appeared in all four of the games against Dallas.

Here’s another wild card: The Mavericks added two key players, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline, which took place after their games against the Timberwolves.

We say all this to make one basic point: Part of what will make this series so interesting is that we haven’t seen the full-strength Mavericks face the Timberwolves yet.

What we know for sure is that both teams earned their way here. The Wolves swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round and then ousted the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, winning Game 7 in Denver. The Mavericks overcame the LA Clippers in the first round in six games and then eliminated the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round in six games.

All of this makes for a fascinating Western Conference finals. To provide some insight, we spoke to an NBA scout, coach and executive and asked them for their predictions and analyses. We granted anonymity because their employers did not give them permission to discuss other franchises publicly. Anonymity also gave them the latitude to be completely candid with their assessments.

(Editor’s note: The experts’ comments have been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.)

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

Scout’s outlook: What a win Sunday for Minnesota. That was just magnificent. Record-breaking because of the deficit (the Timberwolves faced). … It gives them a massive amount of confidence going forward that they won that game. Plus they have home court. … They probably figure they can do anything. And they’re legitimately good.

They were at the top of the Western Conference for much of the year, and they’re the best defensive team in the league. And you saw that in the series against Denver and certainly in Game 7.

They’re super long. They’ve got one of the best shot blockers in the league, They have great perimeter defenders in McDaniels and Edwards, who has become a really good defender, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Mike Conley’s no slouch.

I think McDaniels and Edwards can match up with Irving and Dončić, and then you bring in Alexander-Walker, who has accepted his role as a bench guy who’s a defender and a 3-point shooter, and he can guard too. So Dallas’ two big stars are going to have their work cut out for them and vice versa. But Minnesota has quality perimeter defenders and, of course, Gobert in the middle.

Dončić and Irving are going to get theirs. The key part of the prior series versus OKC was how effective P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. were. Can P.J. Washington step up again? That would be, to me, a huge question in this series. …

In all these series, what often happens is whoever of the best players plays the best, wins. So you have Edwards and Towns and Gobert … versus Dončić and Irving. … I’m going to give the edge to Minnesota’s other guys: McDaniels, Conley, Naz Reid, Alexander-Walker and Anderson. … I like that group. I mean, Naz Reid could start on virtually every team in the league. …

Minnesota was great defensively throughout the year. My question going into the playoffs was: Could they score enough? And they did. McDaniels is an X-factor. He was kind of erratic during the regular season, but he had a big game on Sunday. … They need him and Reid to complement Edwards and Towns in terms of scoring. … If McDaniels and Reid can be double-figure guys, that gives them a huge edge. …

Dallas’ stars have maybe a slight edge in terms of sheer superstar ability, though Edwards, of course, is coming into his own. … But I just think Minnesota’s secondary guys are better. … Minnesota’s got two other things going for them. They have home court, and they’ve got that massive win (Sunday in Denver). I don’t think you can underestimate the impact of that game on them going forward.

Coach’s outlook: I thought Denver was going to win. I’m still in shock that Minnesota won that game. But I love role players. To me, they’re how you win in the playoffs. The stars do their thing, and they have to do their thing. But it’s the role players where you can get an edge. And I thought (Jaden) McDaniels and Naz Reid were so good and so timely (against Denver), I thought they were big time.

McDaniels scoring (23) points in a Game 7, and he doesn’t even have an offensive game like that — I mean, you just can’t game-plan for that. So I think Minnesota is going to win the series, and I just think it will be because of their defense. The suffocating defense that they can throw out there, the energy that Ant Edwards was putting into that defensive end when he wasn’t scoring or playing well, if you put him on Kyrie (Irving) and you throw McDaniels on Luka with that size and length, and you have all that size out there behind those guys at the point of attack, their defense is elite.

Kyrie’s going to have to go off. He’s going to have to get busy. Luka’s going to get numbers. He’s going to be a triple-double dude. He’s just so skilled and good. And he might have some big games when he’s hitting that stepback 3 going left. But to me, Kyrie will have to shake loose versus Minnesota’s defense. If Kyrie can go off and start scoring, it’s not only the points, but it’s the mental game that can get Minnesota doubting.

Dallas has to put some doubt into Minnesota because the entire series with Denver, Minnesota looked supremely confident. They didn’t look rattled. They looked like a team that expected to win. And I think they’re going to feel the same way versus Dallas. But when you’ve got a dude like Kyrie getting buckets and going off, that will put some doubt in Minnesota’s mind.

That (Dereck) Lively-Naz Reid matchup is going to be a big X-factor. Lively won them that game (Sunday against Oklahoma City) just bullying Chet Holmgren with his energy and activity and his rolling. Chet just could not get a rebound. Naz is more physical than that. But Naz is shorter. I would say those two dudes are going to be huge X-factors in that series.

Executive’s outlook: I’ll go Wolves in six. McDaniels on Luka, Ant on (Irving). They have credible bodies to guard their guys, and then they have the rim protection behind them where those guys can be aggressive on their two matchups. That’s a hell of a place to start for them, to me, and just their overall defense can withstand a lot. Who guards P.J. Washington? Does Dallas go to him, actually, in plays? They didn’t (against OKC). They went to him on posts against the Thunder some. Do they find ways to go to him? 

I just think the Wolves have more answers than the Mavs do. It all could be moot if Luka and Kyrie just go berserk. But yeah, my gut is that the Wolves are just a better team, and they win in six.

KAT offensively should be a swing guy. Dallas should run out of answers to someone, just in terms of bodies, and it looks to me like KAT would be the guy who should be able to do what he does if everything works out. And the way they beat the defending champions gives them validation that, “Yeah, the sacrifices I made have made it worth it.” That doesn’t mean that they’re done. I don’t want to say that at all. But if anything, it gives them a stronger level of belief because, “Hell yeah, what I’ve been asked to do worked, and we’re all getting the shine they said would come.” That’s a pretty special moment for a team.

Scout’s pick: Timberwolves in six
Coach’s pick: Timberwolves in six
Executive’s pick: Timberwolves in six

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(Top photo of  Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns (32) and Dallas’ Maxi Kleber and Olivier-Maxence Prosper: David Berding / Getty Images)