What’s Working: Colorado employers may finally have found enough workers, as job openings flatten

Colorado received some notable mentions in the latest national job-openings report. The state had the largest one-month increases in both workers who quit jobs or left involuntarily.

That helped the state rank as the second highest in the nation for workers who quit jobs and third highest for those who lost them in April, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, or JOLTS. The last time the state hit a 3.5% quit rate was in the summer of 2021, when the Great Resignation took hold and employers faced the worst labor shortage in years.

But the frustrations employers felt with getting ghosted by new hires back then doesn’t appear to be happening today, at least from what Tony Gagliardi is hearing. As state director of NFIB, which advocates for 6,000 small business members, there are other concerns, like taxes, inflation or the uncertainty of operating as new state policies go into effect. Finding enough workers is still a concern but for different reasons compared to two years ago when he would hear about members getting zero applications for a job posting.

“Members are concerned about having qualified employees,” Gagliardi said. “There’s also the longevity issue because employers would like to hire long-term employees that want to come and learn the business and hopefully take over the business. I hear from members say, ‘You know, we’ve had a good run, we’ve had a great business and we’ve saved money. But we don’t have employees that are interested in buying the business or taking over the business so we’re just going to close it.’ Now, we’ve lost jobs.”

There are still a lot of available jobs in Colorado, which has hovered around 200,000 a month for the past year, according to JOLTS data. But a year ago, there were 259,000 job openings. As a comparison, JOLTS data had the monthly job openings number between 130,000 and 155,000 in 2019 before the pandemic hit.

Monthly JOLTS data can be questionable since sample sizes are smaller than other Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys, acknowledged the state’s Department of Labor and Employment. CDLE economist Monicque Aragon.

“The JOLTS series is a reflection of the persistent tight labor market in the state,” Aragon said in an email. “Additionally, a high quits rate serves as a potential indicator of employee confidence, and even after accounting for some of the volatility in the series … we are seeing signs of comparatively strong openings and quits in the state.”

1.7 open jobs for every unemployed Coloradan

JOLTS is a key source for the frequently touted jobs-to-unemployed-worker ratio. Colorado’s ratio has been around two jobs for every unemployed worker for two years before dropping in January. In April, the state’s ratio slipped to 1.7 jobs per unemployed worker, as the number of unemployed Coloradans rose. That is still higher than the nation’s ratio of 1.2 open jobs for each unemployed worker.

But it’s not that states should necessarily shoot for a 1-to-1 equilibrium, said Ryan Gedney, a former state labor economist who has ventured out on his own. JOLTS is really just a gauge of labor tightness.

“A relatively higher ratio may mean it’s more difficult for employers to fill jobs, while a relatively lower ratio may mean it’s more difficult for job seekers to find jobs,” Gedney said in an email.

So what to make of rising quit rates and steady job openings? Look at the trends over longer periods of time, said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at the University of Colorado’s business school. He also compares the number of quitters to layoffs and over time, that ratio has been more steady than what the state usually sees.

“If you look back over time, it’s a volatile series,” Lewandowski said. “We have a high job openings rate. We know that our job skills outperform. I think it’s still sort of an employee market in Colorado where employers don’t seem to have a lot of leverage — yet.”

Hiring no longer the top challenge for some employers

The challenges of finding enough workers have lessened, at least anecdotally. Lewandowski said that in surveys with area business leaders, there’s still a labor shortage, but it’s different from before.

“I remember talking to a firm that was having a hard time retaining workers so they increased their wages. But the compromise was they could only afford to employ two people instead of three,” he said. “They felt they needed to pay higher wages in order to have somebody who’s competent working for them.”

It’s happening at larger companies, too. Two years ago, United Airlines held three job fairs in one year in the Denver area to fill jobs in customer service, ramp service and pretty much everything. It raised wages and spread the word.

Today? All good, spokesman Russell Carlton said.

“United has been successful in attracting qualified candidates in our city, and as a result we’re fully staffed with less open roles compared to a few years ago,” Carlton said.

The company has grown to 10,000 employees in Denver, from about 7,000 two years ago. But the increase is also credited to the airline’s $1 billion expansion in Denver. It added new gates and new routes. Last year, it hired 2,500 people in Denver alone.

That said, Carlton added, there are still 700 open jobs in Denver for roles like pilots, attendants and operations. Of those, fewer than 200 are for customer service and ramp service. Companywide, United has received nearly 260,000 applications since January, in addition to 40,000 applications for 300 summer internship slots.

McDonald’s, too, has seen hiring patterns shift. After scrambling during the pandemic, local restaurants focused on retention and longer-term workers. There are about 200 McDonald’s restaurants in the Rocky Mountain region, which includes Colorado, Wyoming and western Nebraska.

Altogether, the 200 stores are hoping to hire about 6,000 employees in 2024. While that number is the same as it was two years ago, the circumstances are different.

“We aren’t seeing any difficulty hiring,” said Jessi Bucar, owner and operator of a McDonald’s in Lakewood, “and as a matter of fact, have a lot of applications in the queue.”

And perhaps Colorado employers are finding the workers they need, or can afford. The state’s job board has seen a decline in activity, with the number of job listings just under 68,000 as of Friday. Two years ago in August, there were more than 150,000 openings listed at ConnectingColorado.com, where workers receiving state unemployment coverage must register with and search for jobs.

Is it hard to find a job or hire workers in Colorado? Please share your experience at tamara@coloradosun.com or take the poll HERE

Sun economy stories you may have missed

➔ Colorado ends budget year $164M in the red with potential tax cuts looming on November ballot. The immediate budget challenges come with an elephant in the room: Two conservative ballot measures that would slash local property taxes across the state and put a cap on their growth >> Read story

➔ Alamo Drafthouse workers hopeful ownership change will favor newly formed union. Sony Pictures bought the movie theater chain less than two weeks after workers at Westminster and Sloan’s Lake locations held union elections. >> Read story

➔ Southeastern Coloradans could pay $20 more a month if state regulators approve utility’s rate increase. Officials in Pueblo and Cañon City are pushing back against Black Hills Energy’s proposal, calling it “one more burden on a poor community” >> Read story

➔ An experiment doled out money to homeless people in Denver, no strings attached. Here’s what happened. The percentage of people who had housing at the 10-month check-in of the Denver Basic Income Project climbed to 45% >> Read story

➔ Facing power plant and coal mine closures, Moffat County wants $118 million in help from the company that owns them. Shutting down Craig Station and Trapper and Colowyo mines will slash as much as 43% of the county’s property tax revenue and 437 jobs >> Read story

➔ Visits to Colorado ski areas reached 14 million in 2023-24, slightly down from prior year’s record. Meanwhile, traffic to the six-state Rocky Mountain Region slipped for the first time since 2019 >> Read story

Other working bits

➔ CU’s “quantum machine shop” gets $20M grant. That’s what researchers at the University of Colorado are calling the future National Quantum Nanofab, a new facility on campus with a clean room and nanofabrication tools that’ll take five years to build. The project just received $20 million from the National Science Foundation. Quantum tech has been part of the Boulder economy for decades, but turning quantum research into a revenue source is a new direction for the growing commercial industry. The future facility could help companies build the components supporting “quantum computer chips that may outperform the fastest computers on the market today,” school officials said. >> Read more

➔ Federal internet subsidy ended, but Longmont has its own. After federal funding ended in May for the Affordable Connectivity Program, 250,000 Colorado households lost access to the $30 monthly subsidy to offset internet costs. But in Longmont, most ACP customers stuck with the city’s NextLight discounted fiber service — and then some. The community-owned internet service began offering discounted plans at the start of the pandemic and still does, at $14.95 per month for 100-megabit service and $44.95 per month for gigabit speeds. That’s a $25 discount. As of mid-June, there were 926 customers on NextLight’s Internet Assistance Program, compared with 906 who had been on ACP. >> NextLight’s low-income program

➔ Denver is short 70,000 homes, says Zillow. If every Colorado family or household had a home of their own, the city of Denver would come up 70,197 houses short. That’s how many individuals and families are living with nonrelatives, according to housing market researchers at Zillow. Of those Denver dwellers, only 5.1% could afford a typical mortgage payment. >> Zillow’s report

Thanks for sticking with me for this week’s report. Remember to check out The Sun’s daily coverage online. As always, share your 2 cents on how the economy is keeping you down or helping you up at cosun.co/heyww. ~ tamara

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