What the trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois means for the Capitals’ lineup

When the Washington Capitals traded goaltender Darcy Kuemper to the Los Angeles Kings for centerman Pierre-Luc Dubois, they solved two problems at once — at least in their minds.

Kuemper, an expensive unrestricted free agent signing in 2022, was outplayed by Charlie Lindgren and relegated to backup after having his worst season pro in 2023-24. Kuemper had three seasons remaining with a $5.25 million cap hit on his contract and seemingly no future with the team.

Meanwhile, Dubois, the number three overall pick in 2016, struggled under huge expectations in LA, posting only 40 points (16, 24a) in 82 games. The 6-foot-4, 25-year-old pivot signed an eight-year, $68 million contract ($8.5 million AAV) before the year that runs through the 2030-31 season.

“I don’t think I did a good enough job of integrating him in the right roles on the team here this year,” Los Angeles general manager Rob Blake said of Dubois. “You know, I think it wasn’t a great fit in that aspect for us, and we’ll take responsibility for that.”

With Dubois now on the roster, the Capitals have an elite player they’ve coveted for years, as well as a top-line center that will help the team slot better up the middle. At his best, Dubois has posted three 60-plus point seasons during his seven years in the NHL and tallied 20 or more goals four different times.

Dylan Strome, who is an effective point producer and power-play contributor, posted career highs in goals (27) and points (67) in 2023-24 but finished on the team’s third line under Spencer Carbery. The 27-year-old Mississauga, Ontario native arguably would be more of a net-positive playing in more of a protected middle six role due to his lack of elite skating and defense.

Then there are young pivots, Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre, who have both shown promise and flashes of brilliance at the NHL level but are still growing as players. McMichael would likely grab the second or third center spot. The acquisition of Dubois also gives Lapierre more runway to develop without pressure — either in the NHL or AHL.

“I don’t want to get too much into the upstairs and management stuff but to thrust and expect Connor McMichael to become Brayden Point, I don’t think that’s fair,” Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery said at the end of the year. “To score 40 goals and be a 100-point guy – I just don’t think that’s fair. Am I saying that Connor can’t do that? I’m not but to say and expect him and Lappy to be hundred-point scorers, those are very, very unique players.

“We’ll see where their path goes and we’ll help them develop and grow and that’s my job. Can they be 25-30 goal guys? Can they play third, second line? Yeah, I think they can and if they really pop maybe that isn’t too unrealistic but I just think we have to be careful and temper expectations. Just because someone is picked in the first round [they aren’t] going to be Brayden Point or Nikita Kucherov or Artemi Panarin.”

Nic Dowd, who has long been the team’s defensive shutdown center, appears slated to anchor the fourth line again next season. Dowd could be entering his final year with the Capitals as his three-year pact concludes in 2024-25 ($1.3 AAV). Dowd’s name has come up in trade rumors since the start of last season and it’s possible he could be dealt at the 2025 trade deadline.

Heading into next year, the Capitals’ depth chart at center could look like this — if no other changes happen in the offseason. Strome or Lapierre could end up at wing when the team drops the puck for next season.

Center depth chart

1. Pierre-Luc Dubois
2. Dylan Strome
3. Connor McMichael
4. Nic Dowd
5. Hendrix Lapierre

Dumping Kumper also helps the Capitals slot better in net, too. Charlie Lindgren was brilliant as the team’s starter in 2023-24, posting a 25-16-7 record with a 2.67 goals against average, a .911 save percentage, and 6 shutouts. Lindgren stopped 10.5 goals above expected — good for 16th best in the NHL — while Kuemper was in the negative (-4.8; 75th out of 83 goaltenders).

The move opens up the backup spot in DC where the Capitals could either sign a veteran or give an opportunity to Hunter Shepard, who seems to have accomplished everything possible with the Hershey Bears.

Shepard was the AHL’s Playoff MVP in 2023 after leading the Hershey Bears to their 12th Calder Cup. He followed that up in 2023-24 by being named the AHL’s most outstanding goaltender during the regular season and has led the Bears to a second consecutive Calder Cup Finals appearance.

Shepard went 2-1-1 in his first four career starts for the Caps. His best game came on November 11, 2023, when he stopped 36 of 37 shots against the New York Islanders.

The Capitals also have prospect goaltender Clay Stevenson, who led the AHL in shutouts with 7 as a rookie and could be the NHL team’s goaltender of the future.

The Capitals signed Stevenson to a three-year, $2.325 million extension in December 2023 and, if Shepard is in Washington, that would allow him to receive a bulk of the work in the AHL next year.

Harvard graduate Mitch Gibson sparkled in his two appearances in net for Hershey, going 2-0 and posting a 1.92 goals against average and 0.915 save percentage.

Goaltender depth chart

1. Charlie Lindgren
2. Hunter Shepard
3. Clay Stevenson
4. Mitch Gibson
5. Garin Bjorklund

The Dubois trade is a big gamble. Rightly or wrongly, the French Canadian centerman has a reputation for being difficult to coach. His term — seven years at $8.5 million per season — is a huge commitment, especially for a Capitals’ team that is retooling for the future and finding a new identity.

But elite centers don’t grow on trees and this was the move that presented itself. With a little over a week until the NHL Draft and NHL free agency, the Capitals can now focus on trying to acquire another top-six forward, likely at wing, with TJ Oshie potentially unable to return next season.

When Brian MacLellan first took over for George McPhee, he made the aggressive signings of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik. Those huge deals were risky, too. But those moonshots helped solidify the team’s backend and changed the trajectory of the Capitals for years to come.

Will Dubois’s arrival do the same thing? It’s unclear, but clearly, to MacLellan, it was a risk worth taking.