What should Nuggets take away from playoff collapse vs. Timberwolves? “It sucks because I think we’re the better team”

Nikola Jokic (15) of the Denver Nuggets speaks to members of the media after the fourth quarter of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 98-90 win at Ball Arena in Denver on Sunday, May 19, 2024. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

In an emptying locker room of players who had forgotten what it feels like to end a season with a loss, nobody was in uncharted territory as much as Christian Braun.

Towel draped over his head, eyes red underneath it, the second-year guard was in a state of disbelief that replicated the entire Nuggets fanbase. Braun actually went back-to-back before this season, sort of. He won an NCAA championship in 2022 on his way out of Kansas and an NBA championship in 2023 on his way in the door with Denver.

“It sucks,” he said, “because I think we’re the better team.”

Better team or not, the Nuggets’ 2023-24 season is over too soon, shockingly soon. They are the fifth consecutive defending champion to not make it out of the second round of the playoffs. They were also the closest to breaking that trend — up 58-38 on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second half of a Game 7 at home. They would have hosted the Western Conference Finals, too, if they didn’t squander that 20-point lead.

Instead they were left sitting in the sudden stillness of the offseason, first marinating in the agony of the biggest Game 7 comeback in NBA history, then wondering how they allowed it to happen. How they spiraled from a plus-10 rebounding advantage in the first half to a minus-13 in the second half. How they didn’t capitalize on Anthony Edwards’ 6-for-24 game. How their starting lineup was minus-60 points in the series against a team they beat in five games last season. How they ran out of gas where they’re meant to be invincible, at altitude.

“We played into June last year — a lot of basketball. And then we had to play our guys, our main guys, unlike last season, through Game 82 to secure the No. 2 seed,” coach Michael Malone said. “Whereas last year we were able to rest down the stretch. And I think the run last season, and coming back, and the amount of minutes that our starters had to play, I think mentally, emotionally, physically, guys are gassed. They’re dead tired. They gave me everything I could ever ask for.”

The irony makes it twice as painful. That push to secure the No. 2 seed in Game 82? First, that was supposed to be for the No. 1 seed. It would have been a success if not for pesky Game 81, when Denver coughed up a 23-point second-half lead at San Antonio in a game that felt very much in conversation with this Game 7. The Nuggets would have avoided Minnesota and Oklahoma City for two rounds. Maybe they’d be preparing for Ant right now.

Second, all the minutes and all the effort Denver devoted to that regular-season push ended up being a waste. By playing the starters on the last day in Memphis, all the Nuggets earned was a silver lining: the No. 2 seed, meaning home-court advantage in a potential second-round series with Minnesota. This second-round series with Minnesota. The series in which Minnesota won three of four games at Ball Arena.

“I’m not worried about being tired,” Jamal Murray said when asked about Malone’s comment that starters might have been over-relied on. “I’ve been playing in Denver for eight years now. I’m used to the altitude and used to finding my second wind. That doesn’t even make sense. I’m playing the game. I played 42 (minutes); Ant played 43.”

Contradictory statements such as those summed up the postgame scene. Malone, asked what went wrong with Denver’s defense in the second half, combatted the question by pinpointing offense. Braun, asked what the Nuggets needed more of to win, said “defense.” Braun kept reiterating his belief that Denver was the better team, making the loss sting more. Nikola Jokic disagreed. “I don’t believe in that,” he said. “I think the team who wins is better team. You have seven games, or a best-of-seven, so if someone beats you, I think they’re the better team.”

When all that frustration and confusion settles, the in-house questions will shift toward how the Nuggets can make this wake-up call productive for their future. If every playoff series defeat is a revelation of something or someone that needs to change, who got exposed?

It probably can’t be seen as a referendum on Murray, as poorly as he shot the ball and as frequently as Minnesota targeted his defense in the post. His playoff reputation is too ironclad, his fit with Jokic too tailored. This was the first mediocre postseason of his career, and he was battling through an injured calf.

It probably can’t be seen as an indictment on general manager Calvin Booth, as gaping as the Bruce Brown-sized hole in the roster felt. The Nuggets were CBA-bound from offering Brown the money he deserved last offseason. Reggie Jackson’s two-year contract hasn’t aged well since December 2023, but Braun was Booth’s vision for the sixth man anyway. Braun, who guarded Edwards impressively during this series and improved his offense throughout the season.

It probably can’t be seen as a damnation of Malone, as valid as it is to scrutinize his removal of Peyton Watson from the rotation. Watson’s defense and athleticism might have made a difference, but Justin Holiday ate up his minutes and was outstanding for more than half the series. And anyway, Malone’s bench rotation wasn’t responsible for losing this series. Denver’s starters underperformed. And this definitely isn’t a referendum on Nikola Jokic. He’s Nikola Jokic.

So maybe it’s a referendum on that starting lineup, and whether it has run its course after two years — whether the rest of the league has caught up to it. Maybe this defeat is a sign of necessary changes to that unit. Those might be on the horizon anyway. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is expected to decline his $15.4 million player option and attract a robust market, league sources told The Denver Post in March.

Maybe it’s a commentary on the long-term sustainability of Michael Porter Jr., who averaged only 10.7 points in the series and disappeared for the last four games. He apologized to all of his teammates after Game 7, choosing to wear the blame for the outcome. But that would be ignoring the most durable season of Porter’s career, as well as his heroics in the first round against a Lakers team that (in hindsight) was pretty close to taking Denver six or seven games.

Or maybe it’s none of these things. Maybe one playoff choke isn’t enough to rattle the cages so dramatically when everyone involved is a proven championship contributor, even if everyone mentioned deserves a piece of the blame. Maybe this series was simply a testament to the difficulty of repeating in a post-Warriors world, where parity is supreme. “The one thing I keep on going back to right now is, I consider the San Antonio Spurs a dynasty,” Malone said, echoing Booth’s ambition for the Jokic era. “And they’ve never won back-to-back.”

“Just mentally and physically conjuring up the energy to fight like you’re being hunted. That’s the emotion,” Murray said. “When you’re the hunter, you have so much more motivation and you grasp onto anything to prove everybody wrong. You have a constant chip on your shoulder. I don’t know, I feel like we should have won tonight. That’s the tough part.”

More specifically, there’s the elephant in the room: The Nuggets were the hunted this year, but the only successful hunter was ex-Nuggets executive Tim Connelly.

Here’s something Denver’s players can start to agree on, regardless of which team was better this season. A rivalry is blooming between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.

“I don’t like them. I think that we need more of that in the NBA,” Braun said. “They’re a really good team. Really well-coached. Really good players. It’s a matchup that you love to play in. You don’t want to play, like, really friendly with a bunch of teams. I think it’s a really good rivalry for the NBA. I would say it is a rivalry. And that’s why this hurts more.”

“I think they’re built to beat us,” Jokic said. “Just look at their roster.”