Western Conference Finals Game 2 Preview: Mavericks look to win again in clash with Timberwolves

The Dallas Mavericks are fresh off an impressive win in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night, and they’ll look to add to it in Game 2 of the series in Minneapolis on Friday night at 7:30 PM CT on TNT. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and company stared down the hottest team in the league on the road to open the series as the Timberwolves rained down a barrage of threes in the first half, but did not flinch, slowly working their way back to a fourth quarter win thanks to Doncic’s 15 points in the final frame.

But this series will be a chess match, we always knew that, so the Mavericks will need to be ready for a reenergized Minnesota squad looking to prove a point after running out of steam Wednesday. Here is what we’ll be watching for on Friday.

Blitz or drop

The Timberwolves have plenty of size in their rotation, especially playing a defensive frontcourt of Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. But just like his previous team (Utah Jazz), Minnesota plays primarily in drop coverage — meaning that when they defend a high-screen the center (Gobert) will not defend the ball handler near the screen and will drop back closer to the basket to avoid the offensive player blowing by them to the rim, and not forcing help defenders to leave corner shooters. On Wednesday night both Doncic and Irving took full advantage of this, time and again, either using the space for comfortable midrange jumpers or patiently pulling Gobert to them to open up the lob to Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II. Irving was a man on fire in the first half, scoring 24 points in the on 11-of-14 shooting.

Minnesota did mix their coverages as the game went on, using Towns and a few others to blitz both Doncic and Irving at the screen to force the ball out of their hands. Both defenders involved in the action leaves the screener to slip to the open short roll area. For the Mavericks that is using Gafford, Lively, PJ Washington, or Derrick Jones Jr. in the space to receive the ball between the top of the key and free throw line and either drive or kick to corner shooters. The Timberwolves were very committed to eliminating any three point attempts from the corners — an impactful strategy as it left Mavericks shooters mostly out of rhythm.

This will be a major adjustment point for Game 2. The Timberwolves will need to use drop most of the time Gobert is on the floor, but they can’t have a repeat of Game 1 again. I expect the Timberwolves to try and blitz more screens when Gafford is on the floor, who is the least sure with the ball in his hands and has a track record of awkward shots or turnovers in those situations. If Minnesota just opts to be more aggressive on all screens, to force other Mavericks to beat them, then I would expect Washington and Jones to screen for the ballhandler more. This back and forth could determine a lot of the offensive flow for Dallas.

Help defense and close-outs

The Mavericks made some clear choices in Game 1 defensively, choice that mirrored some of what they did in their second round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their pack the paint approach is cutting off driving lanes for the dynamic Anthony Edwards, to load up on rebounding support, and it’s at times to invite shooting from inconsistent role players.

That last point was pushed to its limits early in Game 1, where help defenders were so far from their man and so slow in closing out, guys like Jaden McDaniels must have felt like he was at shootaround. Has McDaniels in the past been streaky enough to see if his recent hot streak would hold? To a point. But he was on Wednesday, connecting on six of his nine attempts. The Timberwolves had 11 first half threes in all, and looked locked in early.

The Mavericks made some second half adjustments. The help in the lane, mostly from Doncic, wasn’t quite so deliberate; the close outs back out to shooters, much more crisp. And they didn’t have to sacrifice much in return, other than a wrinkle of Towns to Gobert lob game that the Mavs will need to sort out. Overall Minnesota was just 14-of-25 at the rim.

The Mavericks are likely to keep at the second half approach again in Game 2: placing emphasis on contesting the lane by sagging off role players, but not so much that you let McDaniels set fire.

Finding rhythm

The Mavericks will need to find some fire of their own Friday. They were a shocking 6-of-25 from three — not just bad shooting, but also rather low attempts. Some of this is the drop coverage giving the Mavs the lane. Some of it was the Timberwolves’ commitment to shutting down corner threes — the Mavericks only attempted just four corner threes…and they hit three of them. And some of it was just icy shooting: the Mavericks were 3-of-21 above the break.

It is worth keeping an eye on if Minnesota adjusts more help defending to the lane in drop, freeing up some more threes, or if they continue to sell out in shutting that down. If they do, the Mavericks will need to discover some rhythm elsewhere. The Mavericks won a game where they were -36 in the three-point battle. They proved they don’t require it to win, but they need to start hitting some to open up the rest of the offense.

How to watch

Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM CT and can be watched on TNT.