Nearly half of American voters believe they will be better off if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, according to a poll that comes at the start of a Republican convention set to be dominated by the fallout from the candidate’s attempted assassination.
The nationwide poll was conducted last week, before a lone gunman fired shots at Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. The survey nevertheless underscores Trump’s edge on the economy with voters heading into November’s election.
Forty-five per cent of voters — including 40 per cent of independents — said they would be “much” or “somewhat” better off under Trump, while only 35 per cent said they would be “much” or “somewhat” worse off, according to the latest survey conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, out on Monday.
The monthly FT-Ross School of Business poll tracks economic sentiment and voters’ opinions in the run-up to November’s presidential election.
Trump has consistently polled better than Democratic president Joe Biden on the economy. Although economic data has shown strong growth, low unemployment and falling inflation in recent months, Biden has failed to convince an electorate that continues to struggle with high prices that his economic policies are working.
Trump has argued that the economy was strong under his stewardship before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and on the campaign trail has vowed to slash regulations, cut taxes and sharply increase tariffs on imports if given another four years in the White House.
Biden’s struggles appear closely tied to voter perceptions about inflation. Over the past three months, 77 per cent of Americans said they believe inflation has gone up — with 44 per cent saying they believe it has gone up a lot — even as it has moderated.
The latest official figures, out last week, showed US inflation fell faster than forecast, to 3 per cent, in June — more than six points lower than the high above 9 per cent reached two years earlier.
At the same time, only 32 per cent of voters said they have benefited from the record run on Wall Street, with 49 per cent saying they have not benefited “at all” from recent record highs for equities.
“Trump is still beating Biden on handling the economy,” said Erik Gordon of Ross. “Given that the economy is the most important factor driving voting intentions, Biden needs to appeal to a broader voter base.”
The new FT-Ross Michigan results are the first since Biden’s damaging debate performance last month. His approval ratings have dropped two percentage points over the past month, with 40 per cent of Americans saying they thought he was doing a good job as president, down from 42 per cent in June.
But it is on economic issues where Biden continues to struggle most. Just 18 per cent of respondents said they felt financially better off since Biden become president, compared with 49 per cent who said they felt worse off. About a third said there had been no change. Those numbers have barely changed since the poll began in November.
The poll was conducted between July 8 and 10, more than a week after the debate plunged Democrats into disarray over whether the president was mentally able to continue his campaign or govern for another four years.
On the question of which candidate they trusted more to handle the economy, just 35 per cent chose Biden, down two points since before the debate. Trump was unchanged from the previous poll, on 41 per cent.
Despite official consumer price index data showing a moderation in inflation, nearly four in five poll respondents said price increases were among their biggest sources of financial stress over the past month.
“Biden is not winning the perception battle regarding inflation,” said Gordon. “The tactic of talking about improved CPI numbers hasn’t convinced voters that inflation is down.”
The FT-Michigan Ross Poll was conducted online by Democratic strategists Global Strategy Group and Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research. It reflects the opinions of 1,005 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Additional reporting by Eva Xiao in New York
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