Truck transportation jobs down in May; total now matches November

The May data also saw revisions from earlier data on truck transportation jobs in April and March. Seasonally adjusted April jobs were revised downward by 2,300. For March, the downward revision was 1,700.

While economists and analysts generally talk about seasonally adjusted numbers, the not seasonally adjusted numbers paint a different picture.

The report for May shows not seasonally adjusted truck transportation jobs rising significantly, to 1,548,000 jobs from 1,538,600 in April, a figure that was revised down 1,100 jobs from what was originally reported. As one analyst noted, the difference between the rise in not seasonally adjusted jobs and the drop in seasonally adjusted figures suggests the BLS’ adjustment sees a seasonal swing of more than 14,000 jobs in May based on past trends. Applying that adjustment to the not seasonally adjusted figures resulted in the big swing between the two categories.

“The decline was expected, given that spot rates have trended along the floor for most of the year,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said in an email to FreightWaves about the report. “Additionally, low spot rates continue to push down contract rates, leading carriers to reduce driver head counts. Total employment is down nearly 30,000 jobs from May 2023, as pressure on asset carriers continues to mount.”

Some of the most volatile numbers in recent jobs reports have come out of the warehouse sector. But that part of the economy was downright boring in May.

Warehousing and storage seasonally adjusted jobs rose 700 jobs, to 1,772,100. But April jobs were revised down by 4,200, and March jobs were reported at 2,100 fewer than last month’s.

After the wild volatility of 2023, when warehouse jobs had several months of declines of 5,000 positions or more — a warehouse job increase only occurred in one month last year — the sector seems to have reached a semblance of balance. Jobs in the warehouse sector are up 5,200 from where they stood in December.

In other highlights from the report:

• The BLS provides an unemployment rate for the entire transportation and warehousing sector, which also includes couriers and rail. The rate for May was 5.5%, up from 4.7%. Its recent low rate was 3.3% in June 2023. Average weekly hours worked fell to 37.8. It’s the lowest  number in a year.

Shannon Gabriel, vice president of leadership solutions at TBM Consulting Group, noted another statistic: the number of people registered on job search platform Indeed as “ready to work now.” The number of registered users who declared themselves as such in transportation is almost 2.5 million, a figure that Gabriel said is “high.”

“May traditionally shows a lower number of jobs added due to the seasonality impact that the month brings: graduations, end of school, vacations, etc.,” Gabriel said in an email to FreightWaves. “There are fewer hiring managers in position to make decisions than other months. Even with the increase in tourism-based transportation jobs, it isn’t enough to support a growing number of those that are currently unemployed, or soon to be unemployed.”

• Average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory truck transportation employees moved higher. At $29.68, the average wage rate in April — there is a one-month lag in reporting that date category — was at its highest ever. Average hours worked in April — 39.8 — declined slightly from 39.9. But they still haven’t cracked 40 hours in 2024, and the recent peak was 42.2 in May 2022.
• Rail jobs dropped by just 100. But it isn’t the direction that rail executives say they are heading, with pressure to increase employment to boost service. At 152,900 seasonally adjusted jobs, the total is a mere 100 jobs more than it was last year.

More articles by John Kingston

Teamsters tie up with Staten Island Amazon union, win other elections

Love’s cuts some services but boosts training opportunities in tight job market

Numbers at major truck lender BMO show worsening credit conditions