Times Now vs India Today: Question of credibility!

Several television news channels, popular survey agencies and small-time local survey teams, besides independent psephologists came out with their own exit polls in the last two days over the outcome of the general elections across the country and that of Andhra Pradesh assembly elections.

But the most keenly-watched channels are India Today and Times Now, for whose exit polls people across the country and also Andhra Pradesh eagerly awaited, for they thought the surveys of these channels are more professional and scientific and have some credibility.

Setting aside their predictions at the national level for some time, as both predicted the return of NDA with a slight difference of numbers, their exit poll predictions with regard to Andhra Pradesh assembly elections were surprisingly quite contrary to each other.

India Today, which conducted the exit polls in association with My Axis survey agency, predicted that the Telugu Desam Party-led National Democratic Alliance will come to power by winning 98-120 seats in the 175-member state assembly, while the YSR Congress party will end up with 55-77 seats.

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It also disclosed that among the NDA partners, TDP may individually get 78-96 seats, Jana Sena 16-18 seats and BJP 4-6 seats.

On the other hand, Times Now, in association with ETG, conducted the exit polls, indicated that the YSRCP would return to power for a second successive term by winning 117-125 seats with 51% vote share, whereas the NDA would not get more than 50-58 seats with a combined vote share of 47%.

Times Now also made a prediction of how many seats and votes each NDA partner will get independently. It said the TDP will get 40-46 seats (36% votes), Jana Sena Party will get 10-11 seats (8%) and the BJP 0-1 seats (3% votes).

Both the news channels appear to have gone to the extreme lengths in their predictions.

For example, India Today predicting 16-18 seats for Jana Sena Party seems a little farfetched. So is the case with the Times Now prediction that the TDP will get 40-46 seats, yet with a fall in its vote share from 39.5% in 2019 to 36% this time.

In any case, it is a question of credibility for both, though they might have their own reasons for coming to their conclusions. It remains to be seen which channel will come closer to the reality on Tuesday.