This Week in Mets: What’s up with Edwin Díaz?

“It’s not so easy to become what one is, to rediscover one’s deepest measure.”
—“Nuptials at Tipasa,” Albert Camus

On the same mound where his 2023 season ended, Edwin Díaz saw his 2024 reach an unexpected early nadir.

Díaz’s meltdown in Miami on Saturday marked the third straight appearance in which he’d blown a ninth-inning lead for New York. He’d blown three of his four prior save opportunities; Saturday’s lead was too large to count as a fourth in five.

And so it was that Reed Garrett locked down a six-out save for the Mets on Sunday, as manager Carlos Mendoza pondered finding lower-leverage spots for Díaz to find his way back to the form that made him the sport’s highest-paid reliever two winters ago.

With the immense help of Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard, let’s examine what’s up with Díaz.

His velocity is down

You can’t ignore the radar gun. Díaz’s fastball velocity is down 2.2 mph and his slider velocity is down 1.8 mph from the 2022 season.

In 2022, almost 80 percent of Díaz’s fastballs were 98 or harder. This year, it’s less than 15 percent. His hardest fastball this year was slower than 173 that he threw in 2022.

This isn’t an unreasonable development given the injury Díaz sustained and his time away from the mound. But that doesn’t mean it hasn’t factored into the results.

He’s not getting as many strikes with his fastball

Díaz’s fastball control has not been as strong as it was two seasons ago. He’s in the zone a bit less often, he’s inducing swings a bit less often, and he’s generating swings-and-misses on his fastball a lot less often (18.0 percent in 2022 compared to 14.7 percent this year).

Díaz’s struggles with both the velocity and control of his fastball have more consistently placed him behind in the count than in 2022.

In 2022, he was 0-1 on opposing hitters more than twice as often as he was 1-0; this year, that ratio is 1.6:1. In 2022, he was 1-2 almost 2 1/2 times as often as he was 2-1; this year, that ratio is 1.4:1. He threw a pitch in a 2-0 or 3-1 count just 57 times in more than 1,000 deliveries in 2022; this year, he’s done it 27 times in fewer than 400 pitches.

He’s been behind more often, to say nothing of the increase in his walk rate.

He’s leaving his slider in the middle of the plate more often.

This strikes me as the main problem, as it recalls Díaz’s woes from 2019. When Díaz’s slider is properly located, it’s almost impossible to hit and just as hard to lay off. When it’s in the middle of the plate, it can be launched very far.

Here’s Díaz’s year-by-year percentage of sliders in the “heart” of the plate charted in front of the opponents’ weighted on-base average against those sliders:

Josh Bell’s homer off a Díaz slider Saturday was already the third long ball Díaz has yielded on his slider in 18 innings; he had allowed one on a slider in 150 1/3 innings pitched from the start of 2020 through the 2022 season. (Congrats Daulton Varsho.) The only season he’s allowed more than three? 2019.

As a result of all this, his confidence is down

To his credit, Díaz has always been remarkably candid in his self-evaluation — through good times and bad. He was that way on Saturday, telling reporters in Miami that he’d lost some of his self-confidence because of how the season is going. When a pitcher’s confidence wavers, so does his conviction in what he’s throwing, and the results can snowball from there.

The good news is, well, Díaz has been here before. He’s battled back from an even larger obstacle in 2019, when his slump lasted the entire season and came when he had little credibility with a new fan base. (He’s unlikely to be booed as vociferously now at Citi Field as he was that season; he may not even be booed at all.)

Toward the end of that 2019 season, I did a story reaching out to closers who had experienced similar slumps. The advice from them then is true again for Díaz. Tune out the noise, build solid outing on solid outing, and remember how good you really are.

The exposition

The Mets once again salvaged the finale of a series, defeating the Marlins on Sunday to avoid being swept by the team with the worst record in baseball. New York’s past three wins are all to avoid being swept. At 21-25, the Mets are third in the National League East.

The Guardians walked off the Twins on Sunday to complete a weekend sweep and push their record to 30-17, 1 1/2 games clear of the Royals in the American League Central.

The Giants likewise polished off a weekend sweep of the Rockies. Despite a remarkable run of injuries, San Francisco has won four in a row to get to 23-25 and third in the NL West. The Giants visit Pittsburgh from Tuesday through Thursday.

The pitching possibles

at Cleveland

RHP Tylor Megill (0-1, 2.25 ERA) v. RHP Ben Lively (2-2, 3.06)
RHP Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.44) v. RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 5.16)
LHP Jose Quintana (1-4, 5.21) v. RHP Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.23)

v. San Francisco

RHP Christian Scott (0-2, 4.32) v. LHP Kyle Harrison (4-1, 3.60)
RHP Luis Severino (2-2, 3.48) v. RHP Jordan Hicks (4-1, 2.38)
LHP Sean Manaea (3-1, 3.11) v. RHP Logan Webb (4-4, 3.03)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• After being briefly shut down earlier in the week, Drew Smith played catch on Thursday. Smith is expected to throw a bullpen session Monday or Tuesday, and he’ll likely need to restart a rehab assignment before returning to the majors.

• David Peterson could be an option in the rotation by the end of the month. Peterson isn’t eligible to come off the 60-day IL until May 27 at the earliest. The Mets have been excited by Peterson’s performance during his rehab assignment, believing the hip surgery should allow him to throw strikes and finish his delivery more consistently than in the past few years.

• Kodai Senga will take a longer time to return, of course. Senga felt better with his mechanics this week during a bullpen session, and the Mets have yet to decide whether the next step is a live batting practice or a rehab assignment. When Senga does go out on a rehab assignment, expect him to make several starts at the minor-league level. Even after being fully built up through spring training and the first week of the season, Tylor Megill made four rehab starts; Peterson has made four himself and will make at least two more.

• The Mets remain unsure about the long-term prognosis for Brooks Raley. Raley’s latest MRI on Tuesday revealed a strain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, albeit one that was healing. Raley will take the next two weeks off from throwing before re-evaluating the UCL. Surgery is still on the table.

• A possible replacement for Raley, lefty prospect Nate Lavender, went under the knife for a “variation of Tommy John surgery” with an internal brace, president of baseball operations David Stearns said Thursday. Lavender will be out for roughly 12 months.

• Shintaro Fujinami, who was recalled and placed on the major-league injured list earlier in the week, has a shoulder strain of undetermined severity. While Stearns didn’t think surgery would be necessary, he expects Fujinami to be shut down “for a while.” An eventual move to the 60-day injured list appears likely.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (New York, AL)
Double-A: Binghamton at Reading (Philadelphia)
High-A: Brooklyn v. Hudson Valley (New York, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie v. Clearwater (Philadelphia)

Last week in Mets

• The Mets provided a kind of blueprint win Thursday; it hasn’t held
• Why the Mets are poised to hand out their largest bonus to an international amateur ever
• Enough with the walks
• Which prospects have raised expectations and which have fallen short so far this season
• Why now for Mark Vientos
• Diving deeper on some of the Mets’ offensive trends
• On the start of Edwin Díaz’s struggles
• Why the Mets are being flexible with Kodai Senga
• TWIM: The Mets need more from their stars

A note on the epigraph

I usually try to quote something from a book I’ve read recently, but sometimes I haven’t read anything good recently, and those weeks I basically cycle through Camus, Dostoevsky and Faulkner. If all you’ve ever read by Camus is “The Stranger,” you’re missing out. “Nuptials at Tipasa” is part of a collection of “Lyrical and Critical Essays,” and I’ve read through the former a bunch of times.

Trivia time

The 15 home runs Díaz allowed in 2019 set a new franchise record for long balls surrendered by a reliever. One of Díaz’s teammates in the bullpen that season is tied for the fourth-most home runs allowed by a Mets reliever in a season with 11. Who was it?

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Edwin Díaz: Rhona Wise / USA Today)