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There Are Fewer Jobs These Days, but the Outlook Is Still Sunny, Economists Say

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6 months ago

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There Are Fewer Jobs These Days, but the Outlook Is Still Sunny, Economists Say

Key Takeaways

  • Hiring rates have fallen, but that hasn’t translated into much difficulty for job seekers, new research from Goldman Sachs economists shows.
  • Instead, the drop-off in hiring indicates the labor market has shifted into a more stable pattern, with less hiring, firing, and quitting than before—in other words, less turnover.
  • One group has had a much harder time finding jobs: Among people new to the workforce, only 13% were able to find a job after six months of searching, down from 20% in 2022.

Employers have slowed their hiring dramatically in recent months—yet for most job seekers, it hasn’t gotten much more difficult to get hired. 

That’s the surprising conclusion of an analysis of government jobs data by economists at Goldman Sachs this week, who found that a recent downturn in hiring just means that more people are staying in their jobs, with few quitting or being laid off. Job seekers are getting hired at rates similar to just before the pandemic, although below the elevated levels of 2022, they found.

“A situation where turnover is low because workers are content with their jobs and employers with their employees is not necessarily a major problem,” Elsie Peng, U.S. economist at Goldman, wrote in a research note.

Labor Market Is Slowing, but Not Stopping

The research shed light on recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing the job market slowing down from the frenzied churn of the last few years as the economy recovered from the pandemic, and there were as many as two open jobs for every unemployed worker. In March, the number of job openings fell to its lowest since 2021, while fewer people were hired than at any time since April 2020.

Despite the slowdown in early 2024, unemployed people were able to find work within six months at rates similar to just before the pandemic, which was 27%, Goldman’s analysis showed.  

There was one group for whom that wasn’t true: Only 13% of people with little prior work experience found jobs in six months, down from 20% in 2022 and well below pre-pandemic levels. 

Relatively Easy To Find Work

Overall though, workers were still finding it relatively easy to find jobs by historic standards, including people without college degrees, foreign-born workers, and people working in low-skill industries.

The data “suggests that workers continue to transition into employment at a healthy pace and have not had to settle for part-time positions at a higher rate than usual,” Peng wrote. 

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