The Windup: Four teams close to accepting deadline fates

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Fire up the Hall of Fame discussion, because Jayson Stark has weighed in. Plus: Ken on the developing seller market, the Cardinals and Reds trying to make noise and the baseball card of the week. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Ken’s Notebook: Four teams close to accepting deadline fates

Trade deadline analysis seems to start before spring training is even over, so naturally, panic set in early. Teams are bunched up! There won’t be enough sellers! The deadline will be a dud!

Please. Separation is occurring as teams fall out of contention, whether they are ready to admit it or not. Even more sellers will emerge in the nearly four weeks that remain until the deadline, prompting the usual works as the big moment nears.

For your Friday treat, we present four teams with practically the same record, all of whom entered Thursday with playoff odds of 6 percent or lower. A hot streak for each of these clubs remains possible. The expanded playoffs allow for extended hope. But eventually, for these Futile Four and others, reality will set in:

Cubs (40-48, run differential -26, six back in wild-card race): All those who had the Cubs scoring 10 runs Wednesday in a game started by the Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez, raise your hand. And yes, we all know the Cubs got hot right around this time last year, and will be reluctant to concede in Craig Counsell’s first season as manager.

Yet, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney wrote Thursday, Cody Bellinger’s quiet season is pointing to an inevitable selloff. Bellinger is one candidate to move, though his two player options complicate matters. Things would get more interesting if the Cubs made some of their more controllable pieces available.

Rangers (39-48, run differential -7, 8 1/2 back in wild-card race): Yes, the defending World Series champions make our little list. Their run differential means their record should be closer to .500, but their offense has cratered from third in the majors in runs per game last season to 17th this season. Since May 1, they are 23-34.

Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors points out that, with the Rangers $12 million over the first luxury-tax threshold, ownership might be all the more motivated to sell.

The Rangers have starters (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney) and relievers (Kirby Yates, David Robertson) to offer. And let’s not rule out Max Scherzer, who has a full no-trade clause, but could be attractive with the Mets paying nearly three-fourths of his salary.

Tigers (39-48, run differential -26, 8 1/2 back in wild-card race): No surprise here. They have been trending in this direction all season, particularly with three other AL Central clubs — the Guardians, Twins and Royals — emerging as contenders.

It might be time for the Tigers to get creative in their search for offense. Not trade Tarik Skubal creative, but something a little more imaginative than simply parting with potential free agents such as Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha and Gio Urshela.

Blue Jays (39-48, run differential -61, 8 1/2 back in wild-card race): Ah, my beloved paper tigers. Would you believe their run differential is the fourth-worst in the American League, ahead of only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox?

I wrote a column last week assessing the Jays’ options. Shame on them if they trade only their potential free agents and run it back in 2025.

Future Hall of Famers: Who’s on pace for Cooperstown?

On July 21, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Jim Leyland and Joe Mauer will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Half the fun of the Hall of Fame is the “who’s in, who’s out?” discussion. One sub-topic: Which active players are currently on pace to join them? 

Today, for the second year in a row, Jayson Stark took on the role of curator for this discussion, dividing the candidates into some (very specific!) tiers. In his list, there were three players whose candidacy I found particularly interesting:

Aaron Judge (Tier: “The ‘Across the 50’ Gang”)

Jayson starts with a fact that surprised him, so I don’t feel too ashamed for not realizing it either: Judge doesn’t even have 1,000 hits yet! But just about every other aspect of Judge’s career suggests he’ll be in there — his career OPS is just under 1.000, plus he has two home run titles and an MVP (and could add to each of those categories this year).

The trick with Judge is that his breakout season didn’t happen until he was 25, which puts him a few years behind guys like Ken Griffey Jr. or Hank Aaron, who started really compiling stats in those early-20s years.

Here, I think, is Judge’s Hall of Fame case in a nutshell (from Baseball Reference):

• Judge: 47.4 career WAR, 46.5 7yr-peak WAR, 47.0 JAWS, 8.3 WAR/162
• Average HOF RF: 71.1 career WAR, 42.4 7yr-peak WAR, 56.7 JAWS, 5.1 WAR/162

He’s had a better seven-year peak than the average HOF right fielder, and a significantly higher WAR per 162 games. At 32, he just needs to spend the back half of his 30s hitting like — well, kinda like Aaron Judge.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt (Tier: “The ‘Red Zone’ Club)

There’s a David Bazan lyric that I love: “Holy or unholy ghost  / well now I can’t tell, but either way you cut it / You should get some distance if you plan to take a stand.”

That’s how I feel about the Cardinals’ two highest-paid players, who are both having career-worst years in OPS (Arenado at .677 and Goldschmidt at .663). It’s also happening in a season when the Cardinals could really use something better (more on that later).

But get some distance, and you remember just how good those guys were at their peaks. Ten Gold Gloves in a row for Arenado. Goldschmidt has 351 career home runs and a higher bWAR than Todd Helton.

I think Jayson is right that neither one is a certainty just yet. But they’re both close enough that one or two more good seasons should push them over the line.

For Jayson’s take on these three — and 43 other active players — click here. 

NL Central Race: Are the Cardinals or Reds good?

So the Reds swept the Yankees in New York, and the Cardinals are in a playoff position. Could we see three NL Central teams in the postseason?

It might come as a surprise that there has only been one month this year that the Cardinals posted a losing record. It was March (1-3). Since then:

• April: 13-13
• May: 13-12
• June: 16-12
• July, so far: 2-1

And yet, it took until June 17 for them to spend their second day of the year above .500. They’re 45-41 now, and fans are filling Katie Woo mailbags with questions about whom the team might add at the deadline.

Some of their needs will be addressed internally, but while they could use a left-handed pitcher, their “Dad Strength” rotation has performed about as well as anyone could have hoped.

They trail the Padres by a half-game for the second wild-card position. Four teams down in the standings — just 3 1/2 games out — lurks Cincinnati, whose three-game run happens to be the longest current winning streak in the NL. (They should get a bonus win for this.)

The 42-45 Reds certainly have more work to do. C. Trent Rosecrans has more here on how important the next 10 games are as they try to separate themselves from the rest of the tepid NL’s would-be contenders.

Baseball Card of the Week: 1992 Classic Best Robb Nen

From 1994 to 2002, Robb Nen notched 314 saves and an ERA of 2.66 in years when the league average hovered between around 4.80 and 5.10 (this year, it’s 4.02). As a kid, I wondered how Texas could possibly have traded Nen and fellow reliever Kurt Miller to the Marlins for the fine-but-unremarkable Cris Carpenter.

These stats (plus his 6.35 ERA with 26 walks and 12 strikeouts for Texas in 1993), help it make more sense. (The Marlins had no such excuse when they traded him for essentially nothing after the 1997 season.)

His career ended after the 2002 World Series when he pitched through a torn-and-tearing rotator cuff.

Handshakes and High Fives

While we were off for Independence Day, the league announced the starters for the All-Star Game. A few links:

Atlanta starter Max Fried had a rough start to the season. Advice from veterans Chris Sale and Charlie Morton have helped get him back to his All-Star form.

Let’s not forget the Giants. With a series win over Atlanta (and injured pitchers nearing return), there’s cause for optimism.

The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Even without Kyle Tucker, their offense is surging.

With Royce Lewis back on the IL (this time it’s a right adductor strain), the Twins have called up prospect Brooks Lee.

The Yankees have demoted Anthony Volpe from the leadoff spot. Chris Kirschner isn’t taking credit, but …

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(Photo:  Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)