The Futility of the US Trade War With China in Two Pictures

Let’s check in on the progress of the US trade war with China that Trump started and Biden continued.

Balance of Trade Since 2018

• China from -418 to -279
• Mexico from -78 to -152
• Vietnam from -70 to -105
• Japan from -55 to -71
• Taiwan from -10 to -48
• Mexico+Taiwan+Vietnam from -132 to -305

Trump started a trade war with China in 2020 and the numbers generally got worse as the chart shows.

US Balance of Trade Select Countries 2024 Year-to-Date Through March

Year-to-Date Through March Details + Projection vs 2023

• China from -61 to -244 vs -279
• Mexico from -40 to -160 vs -152
• Vietnam from -26 to -104 vs -105
• Japan from -18 to -72 vs -71
• Taiwan from -13 to -52 vs -48
• Mexico+Taiwan+Vietnam from -79 to -316 vs -305

The projection is March data multiplied by 4. If the trends hold, any improvement in China will shift to Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

On May 14, I noted BYD Unveils the “Shark” a Plug-in Hybrid Pickup Truck Built in Mexico

The Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dreams) announces a 700-mile range PHEV that will be built in Mexico, this year.

Also see Biden Wants EVs so Badly That He Will Quadruple Tariffs on Them

Astute readers will immediately notice the title of this post makes no sense. It’s not supposed to. But it is exactly what President Biden is doing.

The EU is too shellshocked and disorganized to do anything. The US is fighting with tariffs and sanctions.

But US sanctions on China and Russia have backfired massively. That actually a good thing because it would otherwise add to inflation.

China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

On May 17, I commented China Shock II Is Coming, the EU Will Be Hit Hard, Then the US

Germany is feeling the pinch of China shock. But the US is on deck too. A global trade war looms.

German exporters are getting crushed by China. The EU as a whole cannot compete. The US is responding with massive tariffs.

China will retaliate against US tariffs. One way might be to stop exports of rare earth minerals used in cell phones, EV, computers, wind turbines, and military guidance systems.

Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy

Please consider a Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy

The US Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.

Nearly all of them are mined or refined in China. Yet Biden just blocked production in the US.

The world is on a huge collision course with China.