The French President Will Get Crushed in the European Parliament Elections

Expect a surge in groups classified as “far right” in the European Parliament elections June 6-9. In France, Macron’s party will get pummeled as will the Greens everywhere.

European Parliament Overview

Politico comments How to Watch the European Election Like a Pro

The European Parliament election kicks off on Thursday — have you heard? — and lasts until Sunday evening, when preliminary results will show what the European Union’s politics will look like for the coming five years.

With votes taking place in 27 countries and politicians from some 200 parties across Europe up for election, you’re forgiven if you miss a beat. 

Some 373 million Europeans are eligible to vote. They will elect 720 representatives. That’s 15 more than last time, but less than the 751 MEPs who were in the Parliament before Brexit.

Country-by-Country Guide

EuroNews provides a Country-by-Country Guide to the elections.

From 6 to 9 June, around 373 million eligible voters in the European Union will elect 720 new members to the European Parliament in the biggest transnational poll in history.

But the vote is likely to be profoundly shaped by domestic issues, despite the EU’s increasingly visible role in addressing common challenges such as security, defence, climate change, cost of living and migration.

The ballot is also set to take the political temperature across the bloc’s 27 countries at a critical juncture for Europe, with far-right forces on the rise while centrist parties see support stagnating in many parts of the continent.

France: Far-right sensation Bardella poised to crush Macron’s liberals

Marine Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, has been front and centre of the campaign in France. The rising star is set to scoop up around a third of the French vote and deliver a historic victory for the far-right National Rally.

With a sharp social media strategy and polished performances in electoral debates, Bardella has tried to use his campaign to prepare the ground for what will likely be Le Pen’s last bid to become president in the upcoming 2027 vote.

It means a headache for President Emmanuel Macron’s and his liberal Renaissance party, which has progressively plummeted in the polls and could even finish third if socialist wildcard Raphaël Glucksmann sees a last-minute uptick in support.

Spain: Political debate deeply polarised amid amnesty and corruption rows

Less than seven months after he clinched a second term as Spain’s prime minister by striking a controversial amnesty deal with Catalan separatists, Pedro Sánchez’s socialists are trailing five seats behind the centre-right opposition according to Euronews’ Super Poll.

The far-right Vox party is on track to make small gains, with some polls predicting that another far-right challenger party, The Party’s Over (Se Acabó la Fiesta), could enter the European Parliament for the first time.

Italy: Giorgia Meloni eyes big gains at the expense of coalition partners

In a highly tactical move, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni is the only EU leader who has chosen to lead an electoral list as she aims to convert her domestic support into a strong outcome for her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party.

Under the campaign slogan ‘Con Giorgia, l’Italia cambia l’Europa’ (With Giorgia, Italy changes Europe), FdI is topping the Italian poll and is could secure an impressive 23 seats.

But the surge comes at the expense of Meloni’s governing partners in Rome: Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party is set to be the biggest loser of the night in Italy. After finishing first in the last EU election in 2019, Salvini’s party could come in fourth or even fifth this time.

The result could not only consolidate Meloni’s domestic power, but also cast her as the kingmaker in Brussels. She’s being courted by outgoing European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on the centre-right, who’s coveting Meloni’s support to secure a second term, as well as France’s Marine Le Pen on the far-right, who wants her backing to merge far-right powers to create a supergroup in the European Parliament.

Germany: Ruling coalition under pressure

As in many countries, the vote in Germany is being framed as a referendum on the country’s three-way ruling coalition of socialists, liberals and greens. All ruling parties could see their support stagnate or dip, with the Greens set to take the hardest hit as security and migration overtake climate among voters’ concerns.

The centre-right bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) stands head and shoulder above other contenders.

Further to the right, the embattled Alternative for Germany (AfD) is also set to see support rise, although much less than predicted earlier this year. The party’s lead candidate Maximilan Krah has been embroiled in an investigation into Chinese and Russian interference, and was recently banned from campaigning after making Nazi comments in the media. It prompted the AfD’s expulsion from its family in the European Parliament.

The anti-immigration far-left Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party is also set to enter the European Parliament for the first time with as many as seven seats, as anti-migration AfD voters find a new political home on the extreme left.

Belgium: Far-right Flemish separatists set to deepen divides

The European election in Belgium will no doubt be overshadowed by simultaneous federal and regional elections considered pivotal for the future of the country.

The far-right Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party – which is openly advocating for Flanders’ secession and the division of the Belgian state – is currently predicted to win around 27% of the Flemish vote.

Vlaams Belang has been cordoned off in the past for its extreme stances, but the surge in its popularity will make the convention hard to uphold, particularly in Flanders.

A strong performance for Vlaams in the EU ballot will meanwhile bolster Europe’s hard-right camp. The party is calling for a fundamental reform of the European Union by watering down EU powers coincidentally concentrated in the Belgian capital of Brussels.

The article covers more countries but I will stop there to discuss an important question:

What Is the Far Right?

It is hard to say. In Poland it means support for Ukraine, except as applies to agricultural imports. Poland, Left and Right is hopping mad at grain imports from Ukraine hammering crop prices.

In France, Marine Le Pen has surged after dropping her plan to abandon the Euro. Nonetheless mainstream media still labels her Far Right because of her anti-immigration policies and because she does not support Ukraine.

El Pais has an interesting article in English, Marine Le Pen: ‘If Russia wins the war, it will be catastrophic… if Ukraine wins, it will mean WWIII has been unleashed’

In Italy, prime minister Giorgia Meloni is considered by many to be far right simply because of her anti-immigration stance.

I find it interesting that EuroNews labels Ursula von der Leyen “center right” despite the fact she currently wears a Green climate flag every day, figuratively speaking.

If she is center-right, it’s no wonder everything else looks far right. But it’s not just EuroNews with these labels. All US mainstream media likes to promote everything that isn’t Left as Far Right.

A Surge for the Far Right?

Yep, it’s coming, as labeled. But generally, only two things tie the Far Right together: immigration and anti-greenness.

Otherwise politics is local. So is Euroscepticism. Le Pen turned towards the center on that issue without going overboard like Meloni.

Can a coalition of the right plus the far right knock off Ursula von der Leyen?

From where I sit, I hope to say “Good Riddance”, but I doubt that happens. The far right won’t be a majority, but they will gain enough power to influence decisions.

Ursula will do whatever it takes to buy votes to stay in power. It’s the same in the US.

If she hangs onto power, expect Green policies to be watered down with a focus shift on China instead.

The election is underway. We will have results early next week.