The best, worst and most surprising of the NBA draft: Favorite picks, classes and rookie year predictions

Fifty-eight total picks. Four French players taken in the first round. The first two-day event in NBA history. And with that and more, the 2024 NBA draft is officially over.

Round 1 at Barclays Center saw the first four picks directly align with ESPN’s final mock draft, including the Atlanta Hawks‘ selection of Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 pick. Then, the Detroit Pistons pulled off the first surprise by drafting ESPN’s No. 13th-ranked prospect Ron Holland at No. 5.

Thursday’s second round saw a flurry of draft trades and team transactions, along with college stars Kyle Filipowski, Tyler Kolek and Johnny Furphy going early off the board. Round 2 also featured the selection of Bronny James to the Los Angeles Lakers with the No. 55 pick.

What was the best value pick? Which team drafted the best class? And which players will be named to the First Team All-Rookie Team? ESPN draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo have spent years studying the prospects in the 2024 class, and they’re here to fill you in on the moves the liked, the moves that were surprising and give a few long-term predictions.

Givony and Woo dig into the fallout of this draft by answering 15 questions:

Jump to:
Top pick | Best value | Most surprising
Favorite team class | Least favorite team class
Sizing up trades | Rookie of Year candidates
Best to go undrafted | Predictions

What was your favorite pick of the entire draft?

Givony: Dalton Knecht to the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 17. With the emphasis the league is putting on 3-point shooting, I’m still shocked 29 teams let Knecht fall this far considering he was the best perimeter scorer in college basketball last season, has outstanding physical tools for a wing and looked like one of the best plug-and-play scorers in this draft class. I’m sure at the moment Knecht was disappointed to fall in the draft, but he’ll get over that quickly when he lands in Los Angeles and sees what a great situation he’s walking into.

Woo: Donovan Clingan to the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 7. Both the value and fit here were excellent, and no one thought he’d actually fall to No. 7, but with Detroit at No. 5 and Charlotte at No. 6 going in different directions than most expected (and presumably not feeling comfortable enough to trade back and get who they wanted), Clingan became a coup for the Blazers. I had him as a top-three prospect and think he’s exactly what the Blazers need long term to solidify their rebuild.

Which player landed in the ideal situation to maximize his talent?

Givony: Rob Dillingham to the Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 8. What an incredible luxury for him to have an experienced leader such as Mike Conley guiding him in practice on the nuances of picking apart NBA defenses. He also joins a Timberwolves team that ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency last season, with All-NBA defenders such as Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert alongside and behind him to help minimize his weaknesses on that end of the floor.

I had Dillingham, who landed in Minnesota because of the team’s aggressive trade up with the Spurs, ranked as the No. 3 player on my personal big board.

Woo: Zach Edey to the Memphis Grizzlies at No. 9. I love that he walked into an incredible opportunity in Memphis, where he figures to be a real piece of the team’s puzzle. To maximize his long-term growth, Edey needed to land somewhere that valued his unique strengths and could help cushion him defensively for the time being.

I’m curious what type of balance the Grizz will strike in terms of pace when Edey and Ja Morant are on the floor, but I have a feeling it’s going to work.

What was the best value pick?

Givony: Kyle Filipowski to the Utah Jazz at No. 32. Filipowski is a competitively skilled, 20-year-old 7-footer who can dribble, pass and shoot and was one of the most productive players in this draft class. He has always been a better defender than he has been given credit for and helped lead Duke to the Elite Eight. He was a top-10 prospect on ESPN’s Big Board in March. I’ve spoken with dozens of people who know him and his situation intimately and trust he will find a way to develop into a very good player who will deliver strong value to Utah after picking him in the second round.

Woo: Devin Carter to the Sacramento Kings at No. 13. I had Carter ranked quite high on my personal board, and I thought the Kings walked away as big winners when he fell to No. 13. Most teams were expecting the Chicago Bulls (at No. 11) to take him before Matas Buzelis fell. Carter should easily outperform his draft slot, and I’m curious to see how the Kings use him in rotation with De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk.

Which pick most surprised you?

Givony: Kel’el Ware to the Miami Heat at No. 15. I get betting on talent and hoping that immersing him in Heat culture can get him to realize his full potential, but the fact they passed on Dalton Knecht at the same time wasn’t something I was expecting when they were on the clock. Ware’s combination of rim protection and floor spacing at 7-foot-1 might allow him to see some minutes alongside Bam Adebayo in supersized lineups.

He is going to be put through the Heat’s notorious conditioning program, and will show first he can maintain a much higher level of consistent intensity on both ends of the floor than he has to this point in his career.

Woo: Ron Holland to the Detroit Pistons at No. 5. This was less about the notion Holland was falling in the draft and more about how well Detroit masked its interest in the former G League Ignite forward. It’s a big upside swing on talent, and the Pistons will have to rearrange their roster deck a bit to improve the fit.

Which team has your favorite class as a whole?

Givony: Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers added my No. 10 (Jared McCain), 26 (Adem Bona) and 53 (Justin Edwards) prospects on my personal big board with the No. 16 and 41 picks and a two-way contract, which is strong value. Rival teams often point out the Sixers might be the least active team in the league in terms of bringing players in for workouts in the pre-draft process. I’ve often wondered if these workouts can at times serve as more of a distraction than the all-encompassing sources of knowledge that teams tend to make them out to be, and we’ll see in a few years if that proves to be the case with the way Philadelphia’s class pans out.

Woo: Oklahoma City Thunder. I really liked what the Thunder did, loading up on three playmakers I feel good about in Nikola Topic, Dillon Jones and Ajay Mitchell. You can never really have enough players who can pass, handle and shoot, and the Thunder are smartly stockpiling and developing these types of players. Oklahoma City will have to progressively consolidate some of the talent and assets it has to improve its roster, and the key to sustainability is having guys like this who can step in over time as those moves occur.

Which team has your least favorite class as a whole?

Givony: Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets drafted one player in DaRon Holmes II, but the way they telegraphed this pick to the NBA nearly a month in advance, forcing them to burn through three second-round picks, wasn’t great from a process standpoint, especially since they did almost the same exact thing a year ago in chasing Jalen Pickett — many scouts around the league whom I trust did not consider Pickett a real NBA prospect. I had Holmes ranked 50th on my personal big board, so I’m fascinated to see what kind of NBA player he turns out to be. The Nuggets have their own unique style of basketball and clearly value different traits than other teams. Like many of the NBA’s best teams, they are threading a very thin needle at the moment with their salary cap and luxury tax situation and need to hit on their draft picks to stay in championship contention.

Woo: Milwaukee Bucks. I didn’t love the direction the Bucks took with this draft, and it was less about the players (AJ Johnson, Tyler Smith) and more a question of the timeline. The Bucks brought in coach Doc Rivers to win now, and surely Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard feel the same way. The development swings Milwaukee has taken in recent drafts mostly haven’t paid off yet, and adding two more teenagers into the mix when there were more readymade players available at Nos. 23 and 33 was a bit confusing to me.

What was your favorite in-draft trade?

Givony: The Houston Rockets acquiring AJ Griffin for the No. 43 pick (which turned into Nikola Djurisic) and salary cap relief. It wasn’t long ago that Griffin, 20, was considered a top-10 prospect in the 2022 draft. He showed flashes as a NBA rookie but had a disappointing sophomore campaign, and probably wasn’t in the Hawks’ plans after they drafted Zaccharie Risacher. There were medical concerns with Griffin dating back to his draft days, and he has had injuries while playing for the Hawks.

Still, this is a really interesting gamble from the Rockets who continue to stockpile young talent at every position. Griffin’s combination of length (7-foot wingspan) and shot-making versatility (he made 39% of his 3s as a rookie on good volume, and 45% of his 3s in his lone season at Duke) make him someone worth betting on, in addition to his youth. If he doesn’t pan out, well, they didn’t give up that much.

Woo: The San Antonio Spurs trading Dillingham to the Timberwolves for Minnesota’s 2031 first-round pick, and a 2030 top-one-protected pick swap. It’s so rare to see any team trade into the lottery with just futures, and it’s also pretty rare to see two teams simultaneously accept the risk and reward of a deal like this. It was an exciting gamble by the Timberwolves and a measured short-term punt by the Spurs that also put one of the draft’s more exciting but volatile prospects in Dillingham in an excellent situation to succeed, and set up San Antonio to make another trade down the line with those picks if it chooses.

I said this at the moment of the trade: I don’t know who will look better in this deal five years from now, but I was entertained that both sides were down to make it happen.

What was your least favorite in-draft trade?

Givony: The Spurs-Timberwolves trade. The Spurs might end up regretting trading Dillingham to the Timberwolves. I thought Dillingham was an ideal guard to pair with Victor Wembanyama, and they will see quite a bit of him now in the Western Conference, possibly in future playoff battles. As difficult as these things are to predict, with Anthony Edwards being only 22 years old, it’s hard to see Minnesota falling off that much by the time 2030 and 2031 roll around.

Woo: I didn’t think there were any blatantly bad trades, but I do wonder if the Blazers might regret not waiting to see who was available at No. 14 before sending it to Washington. Knecht would have been a useful addition there.

In five years, we’re all going to wonder why ____________ fell in the draft.

Givony: Cameron Christie to the LA Clippers at No. 46. I had him ranked as the No. 23 prospect on my big board, so for the Clippers to scoop him up at No. 46 was incredible value. He’s going to need time to improve his frame and defense enough to join their rotation, but 18-year-olds with his combination of size and shot-making versatility aren’t that easy to come by, which is why I pegged him as one of my draft sleepers last week.

Woo: Isaiah Collier to the Jazz at No. 29. I get why teams cooled on him, but drafting him at No. 29 was an amazing break for the Jazz, and puts Collier in a great situation to develop and learn on the job. It’s the type of fit he needed, and I think he has the talent to accelerate his learning curve in a better situation in the pros. He’ll need to shoot it a lot better, but this sticks out as a fall that might look goofy in hindsight.

Call it now: Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

Givony: Zaccharie Risacher. The Hawks will give Risacher every opportunity to be successful after picking him No. 1, and he’s a great fit on their roster operating off one of the best passers in the NBA in Trae Young.

Woo: Zach Edey. This might wind up looking dumb, but with the information I have now, I’m going to pick Edey. The efficiency and production will be there when he’s in the game and the Grizzlies might have to lean on him to play winning minutes. In reality, your guess is as good as mine.

Call it now: Which five players will be named to the NBA All-Rookie first team?

Givony: Devin Carter, Zaccharie Risacher, Dalton Knecht, Alex Sarr, Zach Edey. Situation matters when it comes to making the All-Rookie Team. These players have some combination of NBA readiness and a team-friendly situation that should give them a platform to compete for this honor.

Woo: Reed Sheppard, Risacher, Knecht, Sarr, Edey. This is more a referendum on the playing time and opportunity these guys are likely going to get than anything else because it’s a really hard year to guess on that front.

Which player is most likely to light up the G League in 2024-25?

Givony: Tyler Kolek, New York Knicks. With Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride entrenched in the backcourt, coach Tom Thibodeau’s tight rotations and the proximity between the Knicks’ practice facility and G League team (Westchester), I imagine Kolek (the No. 34 pick) will be getting a decent amount of burn there next year. He led college basketball in assists last season, and will likely do the same in the G League also, depending on how many assignments he gets. He’s going to be a very good NBA player in time, I believe.

Woo: KJ Simpson, Charlotte Hornets. I can see Simpson getting quite a few buckets with the Greensboro (North Carolina) Swarm. Charlotte has guards in place ahead of him and probably will want to get him developmental minutes, and he’s a great fit for the pace and style of the G League game.

Which undrafted player are you most interested to follow?

Givony: Keshad Johnson. I love his fit with the Miami Heat, and could easily see him being their next big developmental success story. The coaching staff will surely come to appreciate his defensive versatility, explosiveness, toughness and off-court character. The Heat have done well to develop players’ 3-point shooting, and if Johnson can find consistency there, he’s an NBA rotation player with all the other things he brings.

Woo: Isaac Jones. I became a big fan of the Washington State’s big man over the past few months, and he was one of the top undrafted free agent two-way signings for the Sacramento Kings. It won’t shock me if he winds up as a useful bench player in time.

Make one prediction about this class for five years from now.

Givony: There will be at least three All-Stars to emerge from this group, and quite a few high-quality role-players will emerge from every portion of the draft (the lottery, the remainder of the first round, the second round, and undrafted players). It happens every year, and this year will be no exception, despite the way this class was widely panned for its lack of star power at the top (which turned into this being discussed as an all-time bad draft class, which I do not agree with one bit).

Woo: Despite the amount of gloom and doom that kind of characterized some of this draft cycle, I don’t think we’ll be looking at this as the Worst Draft Ever. A lot of players landed in great situations, a lot of guys are going to pan out, and there was good value to be had, even though the top five to 10 picks were difficult to parse. These guys should turn out all right on the whole.

What is your top overarching takeaway from this draft?

Givony: This was one of the youngest lottery (Nos. 1 through 14) portions of the draft we’ve ever seen, and it was the oldest second half of the first round (Nos. 15 through 30) since 2010. Such incredibly contrasting messages the NBA is sending — we’ll take and develop the very best teenage prospects in the world very high, but after that, we want older, ready-made guys who can be instant contributors.

The fact that one-and-done prospects such as Tyler Smith (No. 33), Johnny Furphy (No. 35), Cam Christie (No. 46), Ulrich Chomche, Justin Edwards (undrafted) and Trentyn Flowers (undrafted) fell the way they did tells me the NBA might want to consider allowing players to withdraw their names from the draft in between the first and second days and have a do-over. I’m not sure every one of those players would have taken advantage of that, but it would be nice to at least give those players the option of going to college or finding an international situation that could help them increase their readiness and standing in a year’s time.

Woo: This draft was ultimately just as flat and inscrutable as we thought it would be for much of the past year. The fact things went off script so early reflected that; teams like the Pistons and Hornets were swinging for upside and weren’t afraid to take chances on the guy they wanted. A lot of teams presumably felt like they couldn’t trade back and be sure their player would be there. And in an uncertain market like this one was, sometimes the best thing is to simply draft who you want.