Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts

The predicted result would also have a major impact on who could follow Mr Sunak as Tory leader, given that many of those tipped to run next month if there is a defeat are predicted to lose their seats.

Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former migration minister, all lose their seats on this prediction.

So too do Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, meaning that three of the four great offices of state holders would be swept out. The fourth, Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, is not an MP.

Reform – according to the Savanta analysis – would not win any seats, though given the rapid recent changes in the party’s profile, an extra element of doubt could apply to it.

Mr Farage only became Reform leader a few days before this polling began, with an uptick in its vote being seen throughout the last fortnight. His impact on the seat of Clacton, where he is standing, is also hard to predict with nationwide polling.

Reform’s polling increase means only recently has Savanta started putting it among the list of political parties offered up front as an option to respondents, rather than only after the select “other”.

Plaid Cymru would be on four seats. The Greens would get zero seats. Seat projections are not made for Northern Ireland, given polling challenges because of party differences there.

Two other MRP polling analyses were published on Wednesday. The Tories were put on 108 MPs by YouGov and 155 by More in Common, underscoring how small changes in vote share could have significant impacts. More in Common had Labour 16 points ahead of the Tories, in contrast to Savanta’s 21.