In “Rocky II,” just as Adrian – the titular character’s love interest – tells the boxer to win by beating Apollo Creed in a rematch, Rocky’s manager Mickey yells, “What are we waiting for?” That line could be directed at the Federal Reserve after Friday morning’s jobs report . The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% in June, and wage inflation is moderating, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% last month. There have also been significant downward revisions to payrolls reports in recent months . It’s time for the Fed to cut rates at the end of July. While the central bank wants to see “further progress on inflation,” I would argue it already has, including Friday’s jobs number, which came in slightly ahead of the Dow Jones forecast for 200,000. Add to that the moderation in the consumer price index , the producer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and the need to wait for further signs of improvement seems like overkill. Another inflation measure, the New York Federal Reserve’s multivariate core trend, slid to 2.36% in May. Further, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for second quarter economic growth is down to an annual rate of 1.5% after topping 3% just weeks ago. Granted, the consumer economy appears resilient, judging by expectations for record travel around the Independence Day holiday. But consumers are, at least anecdotally, starting to dial back spending on home upgrades, like putting in pools , which was all the rage in the pandemic era. If the Federal Reserve waits until inflation reaches its 2% target before dialing back rates, it will have inadvertently tightened interest rate policy just as the economy is slowing down. That overshoot could also lead to an unnecessary recession. Also, if the Fed dials back policy later – rather than sooner – there will be claims of political interference if it cut rates immediately before the presidential election. This is a move it is typically unwilling to make. By starting in July and adding another cut in September, the Fed could avoid uncomfortable claims that it’s lending a hand to President Joe Biden, rather than acknowledging the reality of a slowing economy and declining rates of inflation. Like Rocky, the Fed has been in the fight of its life. The central bank has been dealing with an economy-crashing pandemic, a surge in prices and uncertainty over how its policies would affect the broad economy, inflation and consumer behavior over time. Some economists persistently warned the Fed that its polices were likely to lead to a replay of the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. We now know that this is not at all the case. There has been no second wave of inflation, no feared wage-price spiral and, in many ways, no meaningful additional shocks to the system that would warrant higher rates for much longer. Indeed, a long-awaited drop in rents, at least in select large metropolitan areas , has begun to materialize. This is a factor that will likely drive inflation rates lower. While the Fed may feel a little punch-drunk after the beating it has taken from its various detractors, the central bank should take a lesson from Rocky and Adrian. Go out and win. What are we waiting for? — CNBC contributor Ron Insana is CEO of iFi.AI, an artificial intelligence fintech firm.
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