Rainy Indy 500 forecast could create dilemma for Kyle Larson: Stay or go to NASCAR?

INDIANAPOLIS — Kyle Larson doesn’t get anxious about many things. He thought topping 240 mph for the first time last week was a breeze, and he was barely stressed about qualifying for his first Indianapolis 500.

But the Indy 500 weather forecast? That has him shook, at least by Larson’s typically unflappable standards.

“It’s stressful because weather is always unpredictable, but you just don’t really know until it’s happening,” Larson said Thursday. “You can have backup plans for the backup plan, but you can’t really do anything or react until it’s the moment.”

Larson is worried about rain because, unlike the other 32 drivers in the Indy 500 field, the 31-year-old has other places to be on Sunday. His day job, the NASCAR Cup Series, has its marathon Coca-Cola 600 near Charlotte, N.C., later Sunday night and represents the second half of the “Double.”

Larson’s departure deadline from Indy is 4:15 p.m. ET; according to a timestamped post on X, last year’s Indy 500 ended at 4:14 p.m. ET.

But if Larson is late for the NASCAR race — or misses it altogether — he would need a waiver from NASCAR to still qualify for its playoffs this fall (and as the current points leader, Larson is one of the title favorites).

According to Rule 12.3.2.1.A of the NASCAR rulebook: “Unless otherwise authorized by NASCAR, driver(s) and Team Owner(s) must start all Championship Events of the current season to be eligible for The Playoffs.”

The “authorized by NASCAR” is the key there. NASCAR would likely give Larson a hall pass for missing the race, except that would create a new precedent. Previously, waivers have been mostly handed out for injuries — but never because a driver was racing elsewhere.

Though this would obviously be an exceptional circumstance with some nuance, there would certainly be some level of social media outcry with accusations of NASCAR favoritism toward both Larson and his powerhouse NASCAR team, Hendrick Motorsports.

But past drivers doing the Double didn’t have to worry about losing their championship eligibility. In 2014, when Kurt Busch was the last to run the Double, drivers only had to “attempt to qualify” for every NASCAR race. Busch, for example, qualified his Cup Series car on the Thursday before the races; although he certainly wanted to make it back to Charlotte in time on Sunday, he no longer had to worry about missing the playoffs if he didn’t.

NASCAR then changed the rule prior to the 2015 season to state drivers must actually start every race, not just attempt to qualify. That’s part of the reason Larson is in a tough spot now.

If it does rain in Indianapolis, the best case for Larson is a total washout. Then he wouldn’t do the same-day Double, but at least he’d still be able to participate in both races.

“If it is going to rain, I hope it rains all day,” Larson said. “That way it can just get pushed to Monday. We can get (NASCAR) in on Sunday night and then come here (to Indianapolis) Monday.”

While Friday morning’s National Weather Service forecast said the exact timing is still too far out to predict, a “very unstable atmosphere” and an incoming spring storm system have combined to “present a clear severe weather outbreak possibility Sunday and Sunday night.”

There is currently an 80 percent chance of rain for the Indy 500.

The biggest problem for Larson concerns scenarios not involving a Monday postponement. Indy 500 officials have said they will do everything possible to get the race in on Sunday, primarily because a crowd of more than 330,000 is expected that day. In the previous 107 races, the Indy 500 has only been completely postponed three times (1915, 1986 and 1997) and partially postponed — started, but then stopped and continued on another day — two times (1967, 1973).

If the green flag is delayed and starts late, what would Larson do? It seems unlikely he’d pull into the pits and get out of the car in the middle of the world’s biggest race. But no one has definitively ruled it out.

Similarly, what would Larson do if the race begins, but then is interrupted by a rain delay? Would he wait in Indianapolis, hoping to continue the 500 but knowing he’d miss the NASCAR race altogether? It’s a tricky answer with ramifications at multiple levels.

One major factor in Larson’s favor: His NASCAR team owner, Rick Hendrick, is also the sponsor of his No. 17 Arrow McLaren IndyCar. Hendrick, who makes his living as a car dealer, has HendrickCars.com on both of Larson’s vehicles and has invested untold money into Larson’s Indy 500 effort.

So if Larson wanted to stay in Indy, he’d likely have Hendrick’s blessing to do so.

“I don’t know anything,” Larson said. “I have no answers for you guys, as far as decisions and all that. I don’t think anybody really does at this point.

“It probably has to come down to game-time decisions and playing it by ear.”

GO DEEPER

For Kyle Larson’s Indy 500/NASCAR marathon, there will be one voice in his ear

(Top photo of Kyle Larson: Grace Hollars / USA Today)