Uncommon Knowledge
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Vladimir Putin has no plans as yet to comment on “terror attacks” in southern Russia and in the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol, the Kremlin said on Monday afternoon.
Russia’s investigative committee released footage of what it said showed its probe into Sunday’s attack in the Muslim-majority republic of Dagestan republic in which at least 19 people have reportedly been killed. Gunmen with automatic weapons burst into an Orthodox church and a synagogue in the coastal city of Derbent on Sunday evening, killing a Russian Orthodox priest. About 80 miles further north, attackers shot at a traffic police post and attacked a church in the republic’s capital of Makhachkala.
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was asked about the Russian leader’s response to the attack, as well as Russian claims that five people had been killed by falling debris when five Ukrainian missiles were shot down in the Crimean city of Sevastopol on Sunday. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin and the investigative committee for further comment.
Moscow has blamed the U.S. for the attack, saying that American-supplied missiles were used. State news agency quoted Peskov as saying that Putin “does not plan to give any special address about the terror attacks in Sevastopol and Dagestan.”
Russian investigators said 15 police officers and four civilians had been killed in Dagestan, as well as at least five attackers in Sunday’s incidents, for which there has been no immediate claim of responsibility.
However, the attack on Christian and Jewish places of worship stoked fears Russia may be facing a renewed militant Islamist threat. Just three months ago, 145 people were killed and hundreds injured at the Crocus concert hall in Moscow, for which Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) Province claimed responsibility.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Wilayat Kavkaz, the Islamic State’s Northern Caucasus branch, was likely responsible for Sunday’s attacks. As with the March attacks, Russian officials have not blamed the Islamist militant groups most likely behind the attack, but pointed to the West.
“By leaning on this narrative, Russian authorities are seeking to divert public concerns that security forces are not doing enough to counter the Islamist threat,” said Markus Korhonen, senior associate, S-RM, a geopolitical and cyber risk consultancy.
“Instead, focusing blame on the principal foes in Ukraine and the West allows Russia to maintain a consistent line in painting the war in Ukraine as an existential battle,” Korhonen told Newsweek. “Two major terror attacks in a relatively short time period highlight Russia’s internal security failures,” he said. “The intelligence failures behind the attacks are sure to be embarrassing.
“In pointing to Ukraine, rather than the genuine culprits, the regime can maintain it is directing its efforts to ensure security in the right place, at least for now.”
North Caucasus security analyst Harold Chambers told Newsweek that as yet Wilayat Kavkaz’s links to the attacks are not known, but cooperation between it and IS-K has grown closer. “The precise relationship appears flexible and not well established.”
However, it is difficult to know whether Sunday’s attacks were part of an insurgency against Putin’s rule, Chambers said.
“There has been increasing militant activity in most of the North Caucasus republics, but this remains at low levels of activity, and it is unclear both how large and how sustained this activity can be,” said Chambers, a Ph.D. student at Indiana University.
“As of now, militant cells are not lasting long, with their members being eliminated on the same day as their first attack in all but two cases,” he added.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.