Putin offers new clues about his red line in Ukraine war: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday “indirectly indicated” that Ukraine using Western weapons to strike targets on Russian territory does not cross a Russian “red line,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Ever since the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian officials have referred to crossing so-called red lines that would result in an escalation of the conflict. The Kremlin has even gone as far as suggesting nuclear action would be taken if there was an existential threat to Russia.

The United States recently announced that Kyiv is now allowed to use American weapons to hit Russian territory in a move that many war analysts have said would constitute a crossing of Putin’s red line. However, in a Friday assessment of the war, the ISW said Putin implied strikes on Russian soil with Western weapons would not compel him to use nuclear arms.

Referring to comments the Russian leader made at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the ISW said: “Putin stated that Russia’s nuclear doctrine calls for Russia to only use nuclear weapons in the event of ‘exceptional cases’ of threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The ISW continued: “Putin stated that he does not think such an ‘exceptional’ case has arisen so ‘there is no such need’ for Russia to use nuclear weapons.”

The U.S.-based think tank noted that Ukraine’s armed forces have recently struck targets in the Russian border region of Belgorod with U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) using GMLRS Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets.

“Putin’s June 7 statement is a significant rhetorical reversal given that Putin and other Kremlin officials have previously threatened Russian nuclear weapon use should Western states allow Ukraine to strike into Russian territory with Western-provided weapons,” the ISW said.

The think tank added that there have been several instances throughout the conflict when Ukraine and its Western allies have taken actions that would have crossed red lines based on previous Kremlin statements. Some examples of this includes allies providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, modern tanks and F-16 fighter jets. (While Ukraine does not yet have F-16s, several countries have pledged to provide the aircraft to Kyiv, and Ukrainian pilots have been training to fly the jets.)

Given that such actions have not resulted in “a significant Russian reaction,” the ISW said that “many of Russia’s ‘red lines’ are most likely information operations designed to push the West to self-deter.”

Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin via email on Saturday for comment.