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NHL Draft consensus big board: Who follows Celebrini up top?

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NHL Draft consensus big board: Who follows Celebrini up top?

No draft ranking can properly account for the chaos that is the NHL Draft.

Each year, we see that vividly when the picks start flying and the shock and awe follow. Last year, for example, Arizona selected Russian defenseman Dmitriy Simashev at sixth overall. That was much earlier than the public consensus had expected — Simashev was 24th on last year’s consensus big board — but well within the range of his highest individual ranking in that survey: Corey Pronman’s list, which had him at No. 10.

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And while Simashev’s case shows how an apparent consensus can sometimes be misleading, it’s also an example of the value of putting different draft lists side-by-side. The wisdom of the crowd matters — but it only takes one team to make a pick, so the variance in lists is just as notable as agreement.

That’s why we’re once again compiling a composite big-board of five high-profile draft rankings, in an attempt to find both consensus and dissent.

We started with rankings from The Athletic’s own prospect writers, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, as well as FloHockey’s Chris Peters, who contributes regularly to The Athletic Hockey Show podcast. To give some outside flavor to the consensus, we also surveyed the lists of former NHL GM Craig Button, who is currently the director of scouting for TSN, and his TSN colleague Bob McKenzie, whose list is itself a composite survey of 10 NHL scouts, and is therefore a highly useful insight into the league’s thinking.

Each list is of course worth reading on its own. But the goal in combining them into a composite here is to find some form of consensus, as well as to highlight where there are major differences.

So, let’s dig into the findings of this year’s list, starting at the position that could define the 2024 Draft.

Top defensemen

Consensus Name Position Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie

3

Artyom Levshunov

RHD

2

3

2

8

3

4

Zeev Buium

LHD

5

4

6

4

7

5

Anton Silayev

LHD

4

9

4

12

4

6

Zayne Parekh

RHD

9

5

8

7

8

8

Sam Dickinson

LHD

11

6

9

10

6

12

Carter Yakemchuk

RHD

3

13

10

15

13

16

Adam Jiricek

RHD

15

22

16

19

16

17

Stian Solberg

LHD

12

21

25

20

20

25

EJ Emery

RHD

36

32

23

16

27

27

Leo Sahlin Wallenius

LHD

21

27

34

29

42

The first thing you may note is that five defensemen ranked in the top eight overall. That’s a big number considering just two defensemen were picked in the top eight last year, and three in 2022. In fact, the last time five ‘D’ went in the first picks was 2012, when six defensemen went in the top eight, and eight in the top 10: Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Dumba, Derrick Pouliot, Jacob Trouba and Slater Koekkoek.

We’ll see how many ultimately go in that range this year, especially with forwards locking down the top two spots on the consensus board (Ivan Demidov edged out Artyom Levshunov by just one point for the second overall spot), but there’s no doubt that the ‘D’ will be a key story early on.

Levshunov ranked second or third on four of the five lists we surveyed, a testament to the value of a right-shot ‘D’ with size (6-foot-2) who put up excellent numbers as an NCAA freshman. His 35 points in 38 games for Michigan State dwarf the draft-year numbers of 2021 first-overall pick Owen Power, who had 16 points in 26 games in the same conference. Power’s size at 6-foot-6 is a notable difference, but the production from Levshunov is impressive.

Even more impressive? There was another NCAA freshman defenseman who topped it this season. That would be Denver’s Zeev Buium, who comes in at fourth overall on the composite after ranking in the top seven on all five lists. Buium’s staggering 50 points in 42 NCAA games are among the most ever by a U19 defenseman, and while his number of games played helps that, they also speak to a selling point for Buium: He played that big role on the NCAA champion. In fact, Buium won both the NCAA title and the world juniors last season, giving his production a winning backing.

Towering Russian Anton Silayev is up next at No. 5, bolstered by three different lists having him at No. 4 — Pronman, Peters and McKenzie’s scout poll. Silayev’s size at six-foot-seven certainly stands out first, but his production in the KHL is even more eye-catching: Silayev’s 11 points in 63 games are the most ever points by a U18 player — not just a defenseman — in that league. There are players who scored at better rates in the KHL at that age, including Vladimir Tarasenko, Kirill Kaprizov, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, but playing in so many KHL games as a 17-year-old defenseman speaks to Silayev’s rare profile.

After that, three CHL defensemen slot into the top 12: Saginaw (OHL) dynamo Zayne Parekh slots in at sixth overall, London’s (OHL) Sam Dickinson is at No. 8, and Calgary (WHL) dynamo Carter Yakemchuk is at No. 12. All three had big-time years in Canada’s top junior circuit, and Parekh and Dickinson squared off in the Memorial Cup Final earlier this month. And while Yakemchuk may be the lowest of the three on the consensus board, he had the highest individual-list ranking of any of the three, finishing at No. 3 on Pronman’s list.

While we’re showing the top 10 here, there is some separation after those six, with Czech defender Adam Jiricek (brother of Blue Jackets prospect David Jiricek) and late-rising Norwegian Stian Solberg clustered together in the teens, followed by EJ Emery of the USA Hockey National Team Development Program and Sweden’s Leo Sahlin Wallenius more in the mid 20s.

That speaks to one potential shape this year’s first round could take on: a run on the top defenders early, shifting into a more forward-heavy crop in the teens.

Top forwards

Consensus Name Position Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie

1

Macklin Celebrini

C

1

1

1

1

1

2

Ivan Demidov

RW

8

2

3

2

2

7

Cayden Lindstrom

C

10

10

7

9

5

9

Berkly Catton

C

6

8

5

14

12

10

Tij Iginla

C/W

13

12

12

3

10

11

Konsta Helenius

C

14

11

13

6

9

T13

Beckett Sennecke

RW

7

16

11

11

11

T13

Cole Eiserman

LW

16

7

14

5

14

15

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard

RW

17

14

15

17

17

18

Michael Hage

C

25

15

17

21

24

19

Trevor Connelly

LW

24

17

20

27

15

T20

Igor Chernyshov

LW

18

23

19

24

21

T20

Jett Luchanko

C

19

31

18

18

19

22

Liam Greentree

RW

23

18

31

23

18

23

Sacha Boisvert

C

27

24

22

25

22

Celebrini is of course the headliner of this draft, with no real doubt that he will be the Sharks’ choice at first overall. Behind him is where it gets interesting. Demidov took the second spot overall on the composite list behind three second-place rankings (Peters ranked him third, Pronman eighth), but will he actually be the second forward off the board?

The Russian winger has dynamic skill and could go as high as No. 2 to Chicago, but if he were to slip a bit — perhaps based on difficulty with in-person scouting in Russia in recent years — it’s entirely feasible the consensus No. 3 forward, WHL center Cayden Lindstrom, could go ahead of him. Lindstrom ranked in the top five of only one list we surveyed (McKenzie’s), but his rare combination of size, skating and skill could be enough to land him there on draft day, especially if teams are content with his medicals after he missed time with a back injury.

Two more WHL wingers are next up, with Spokane’s Berkly Catton and Kelowna’s Tij Iginla finishing ninth and 10th on the composite list. Both are relatively small (NHL Central Scouting lists Catton at 5-foot-10 and Iginla at 6-foot) but both finished in the top seven of all WHL goal scorers this season, and Catton (who plays center) finished fourth in total points.

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Three more names who did not finish in the consensus top 10 received at least one top-10 ranking, though: Finnish center Konsta Helenius finished at 11th but landed at ninth for McKenzie and all the way up at No. 6 for Button. OHL winger Beckett Sennecke and U.S. NTDP sniper Cole Eiserman tied for the 13th spot on the composite, but Sennecke ranked seventh for Pronman, and Eiserman ranked seventh for Wheeler and fifth for Button.

There is still some substantial forward depth beyond those names that should carry into the 20s, but those top eight forwards — and how early they can break into the run on defensemen — could determine just how long that depth lasts on draft day.

Biggest variance in top-25

Consensus Name Position Gap Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie

24

Terik Parascak

RW

24

37

20

28

13

25

25

EJ Emery

RHD

20

36

32

23

16

27

17

Stian Solberg

LHD

13

12

21

25

20

20

T20

Jett Luchanko

C

13

19

31

18

18

19

22

Liam Greentree

RW

13

23

18

31

23

18

12

Carter Yakemchuk

RHD

12

3

13

10

15

13

19

Trevor Connelly

LW

12

24

17

20

27

15

T13

Cole Eiserman

LW

11

16

7

14

5

14

10

Tij Iginla

C/W

10

13

12

12

3

10

18

Michael Hage

C

10

25

15

17

21

24

This, to me, is the most interesting part of the composite board: seeing how wide the range is on different players, and what it means for their overall placement on a list. Parascak, for instance, had a ranking as low as 37 from Pronman, but ends up in the No. 24 spot largely on the strength of his place on the lists of Button (13) and Wheeler (20). While that’s certainly a wide gap for a player this high on the overall list, it speaks to his potential range of outcomes.

Behind Parascak on the list of players with wide ranges are a pair of defense-first defensemen in Solberg and Emery. That profile may not be as sexy or have the gaudy stat lines, but we see year after year that general managers value it significantly, so high rankings of 12 for Solberg (Pronman) and 16 for Emery (Button) could well prove accurate come draft day.

Other players ended up here more on the pull of one low ranking. That’s certainly true of Guelph center Jett Luchanko, who was top-19 for four lists surveyed, but down at No. 31 for Wheeler. And it’s true to a lesser extent of Greentree, who was in the top 23 for everyone but Peters, who ranked him 31st.

You can read the complete top 65 here:

2024 NHL Draft consensus ranking

Consensus Name Position Pronman Wheeler Peters Button McKenzie

1

Macklin Celebrini

C

1

1

1

1

1

2

Ivan Demidov

RW

8

2

3

2

2

3

Artyom Levshunov

RHD

2

3

2

8

3

4

Zeev Buium

LHD

5

4

6

4

7

5

Anton Silayev

LHD

4

9

4

12

4

6

Zayne Parekh

RHD

9

5

8

7

8

7

Cayden Lindstrom

C

10

10

7

9

5

8

Sam Dickinson

LHD

11

6

9

10

6

9

Berkly Catton

C

6

8

5

14

12

10

Tij Iginla

C/W

13

12

12

3

10

11

Konsta Helenius

C

14

11

13

6

9

12

Carter Yakemchuk

RHD

3

13

10

15

13

T13

Beckett Sennecke

RW

7

16

11

11

11

T13

Cole Eiserman

LW

16

7

14

5

14

15

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard

RW

17

14

15

17

17

16

Adam Jiricek

RHD

15

22

16

19

16

17

Stian Solberg

LHD

12

21

25

20

20

18

Michael Hage

C

25

15

17

21

24

19

Trevor Connelly

LW

24

17

20

27

15

T20

Igor Chernyshov

LW

18

23

19

24

21

T20

Jett Luchanko

C

19

31

18

18

19

22

Liam Greentree

RW

23

18

31

23

18

23

Sacha Boisvert

C

27

24

22

25

22

24

Terik Parascak

RW

37

20

28

13

25

25

EJ Emery

RHD

36

32

23

16

27

26

Cole Beaudoin

C

20

37

27

28

23

27

Leo Sahlin Wallenius

LHD

21

27

34

29

42

T28

Egor Surin

C

31

41

26

31

34

T28

Emil Hemming

RW

50

19

29

39

26

30

Nikita Artamonov

LW

30

40

21

40

35

31

Charlie Elick

RHD

22

43

24

49

33

32

Matvei Gridin

RW

34

38

30

36

37

33

Ryder Ritchie

RW

49

30

37

32

31

34

Dominik Badinka

RHD

29

44

44

48

29

35

Marek Vanacker

LW

52

35

50

34

28

36

Andrew Basha

LW

87

29

47

30

30

T37

Linus Eriksson

C

26

47

43

42

44

T37

Cole Hutson

LHD

60

34

35

26

47

39

Julius Miettinen

C

33

69

38

22

46

40

Dean Letourneau

C

28

45

32

69

36

41

Sam O’Reilly

RW

41

52

49

35

32

42

Adam Kleber

RHD

35

49

33

47

51

T43

Henry Mews

RHD

42

26

36

70

48

T43

Maxim Masse

RW

48

28

56

46

39

45

Lucas Pettersson

C

40

36

41

66

40

46

Alfons Freij

LHD

83

39

58

37

41

47

Teddy Stiga

C

65

33

40

64

43

48

Aron Kiviharju

LHD

61

25

52

60

52

49

Jesse Pulkkinen

LHD

46

75

42

75

38

50

Tanner Howe

LW

66

42

46

74

45

51

Luca Marrelli

RHD

43

73

51

44

62

52

Adam Jecho

C

38

62

45

67

60

53

Matvei Shuravin

LHD

32

66

NR

61

50

T54

Ben Danford

RHD

44

58

57

78

54

T54

John Mustard

C

67

51

39

68

58

56

Leon Muggli

LHD

80

48

48

62

56

57

Harrison Brunicke

RHD

45

56

54

72

61

58

Will Skahan

LHD

63

64

59

52

49

59

Justin Poirier

RW

90

55

83

38

0

60

Max Plante

LW

88

76

73

33

65

61

Veeti Vaisanen

LHD

82

59

65

43

75

T62

Marcus Gidlof

G

39

86

86

NR

NR

T62

Carson Wetsch

RW

51

82

53

65

70

T62

Simon Zether

C

58

46

72

90

88

T62

Spencer Gill

RHD

106

97

81

51

53

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos; Bailey Hillesheim / Icon Sportswire, Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Images / LightRocket, Nic Antaya / Getty Images)

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