NASCAR predictions: Projecting winner, order of finish for entire field at Pocono

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Tricky Triangle on Sunday, as the best drivers in America will put their talent to the test at Pocono Raceway.

Over the course of his career, Pocono has been kind to Denny Hamlin, but his teammate Martin Truex Jr. will be battling against him for the win, in what could be his final trip to a track close to his heart. His name will be painted along the start-finish-line, so perhaps that’s a good omen for the No. 19.

Ahead of what should be an awesome race, the crew over at Racing Insights, utilizing their “advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results,” have projected the entire finishing order for the race.

1) Denny Hamlin

The struggle has been real for Denny Hamlin over the last couple of weeks. The Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman thankfully has three wins on the season, so his P30 finish at Chicago doesn’t hurt him, but the last couple of weeks haven’t gone the No. 11 driver’s way. 

Over the course of his career, Pocono has been one of, if not Hamlin’s best track on the schedule. He won his first two races at the Tricky Triangle, and he also returned to Victory Lane in 2023. There’s plenty of merit for the No. 11 to win next weekend.

2) Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson seemed like the wheelman who was best suited to give Shane van Gisbergen a run for his money on Sunday. In a shocking twist, both Larson and SVG ended up with DNFs on the afternoon, as the former NASCAR Cup Series champion came home P39 on the afternoon.

Moving ahead to this weekend’s race in Pocono, it’s a track where Larson has never won, but he’s come close on multiple occasions. Last season, the Hendrick Motorsports wheelman finished P20 in the mountains, so he’ll be hoping for a much better run in 2024.

3) Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott had a serious gripe with Daniel Suárez after the Chicago Street Race. The No. 9 went from a firm top ten to being spun in the final lap of the race, and he wasn’t happy about it afterwards, following his P21 finish on the afternoon.

Elliott has raced at Pocono 14 times over the course of his Cup Series career, and he’s won at the track once, which came in 2022. Can he win his second race at the track, and his second race of the season? It remains to be seen, but it’d be a popular result if it came true.

4) William Byron

While William Byron wasn’t exactly a factor near the front for most of the afternoon, he still ended up with a solid finish in Chicago. The No. 24 wheelman brought his Chevrolet home P8, as he watched his teammate cruise to a win in Illinois. 

Throughout the course of his career, Byron has raced well in Pocono. He’s never finished below P18, which is actually his worst finish at the track. However, he’s never won at the track, so perhaps Sunday will be a fruitful trip for the No. 24.

5) Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski has never been a favorite on any type of road course, but he was holding his own in the top ten, until he was wrecked on the final lap. Still, the No. 6 wheelman impressed, and he came home with a P18 finish on Sunday. 

Since joining the Cup Series full-time, Keselowski has raced at the Tricky Triangle 26 times in his career. He won back in 2011, and he’s come close a couple of times since, including three runner-up finishes. He’s an interesting driver to keep an eye on ahead of next weekend’s iteration of the Cup Series in Pocono.

NASCAR projections for Pocono — P6 through P37:

6) Martin Truex Jr.
7) Kyle Busch
8) Christopher Bell
9) Ryan Blaney
10) Tyler Reddick
11) Alex Bowman
12) Ty Gibbs
13) Joey Logano
14) Erik Jones
15) Bubba Wallace
16) Daniel Suarez
17) Ross Chastain
18) Chris Buescher
19) Michael McDowell
20) Todd Gilliland
21) AJ Allmendinger
22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
23) Austin Dillon
24) Chase Briscoe
25) Harrison Burton
26) Noah Gragson
27) Austin Cindric
28) Ryan Preece
29) Justin Haley
30) John Hunter Nemechek
31) Corey LaJoie
32) Daniel Hemric
33) Josh Berry
34) Cody Ware
35) Carson Hocevar
36) Zane Smith
37) JJ Yeley

As you can tell, the Racing Insights team believes Denny Hamlin will win back-to-back races at Pocono, but Kyle Larson will have something for the No. 11. Time will tell if the No. 5 can shake the data and get the win, or if Hamlin will best the Hendrick Motorsports star once again in Pennsylvania.