MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Red Sox vs. Yankees odds, predictions and best bets for July 7

Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox vs. Yankees:

For the second time in under a month, the Red Sox and Yankees will square off on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. The venue has changed, as the last game was June 16 at Fenway Park, but it remains to be seen if the outcome will. The Red Sox won that game 9-3 with Kutter Crawford lined up against Marcus Stroman.

Crawford will be involved once again, but the Yankees will send out Luis Gil in hopes of getting him back on track with one week left until the All-Star Break.

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How to Watch Red Sox vs. Yankees

Where: ESPN

When: Sunday July 7, 7:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Odds

Boston Red Sox +110 // New York Yankees -130

Total: 8.5 (-115/-105)

The Yankees have been riding the struggle bus to work for a little while now. Disappointment and discontent have permeated the fan base, as the team has gone just 6-15 over the last 21 games, including a series loss to Boston in mid-June. Yesterday’s 14-4 win was a sight for sore eyes, as rookie Ben Rice became the fastest player to hit three home runs in a game, but the Yankees haven’t won consecutive games since June 11-12 in Kansas City.

Boston’s Saturday night setback snapped a five-game winning streak. At the time of the last Sunday Night Baseball game between these two teams, I spoke about how the Red Sox had consistently found ways to be .500, one game over, or one game below. Well, that June 16 win put them at 37-35 and they’re now sitting at 48-40 and control their own destiny in the AL Wild Card race.

The pitching staff is a big reason why Boston is in that position and Crawford is one of the main contributors. He has a 3.42 ERA with a 3.96 FIP in 100 innings with 104 strikeouts against 30 walks. He has given up 14 homers and that will be something to watch here on a very warm night in the Bronx. First-pitch temps will be a stone’s throw away from 90 and oppressive humidity has taken hold in the Big Apple this week.

Crawford is a fly ball guy and has a 4.46 ERA with a 4.83 FIP, including all 14 homers, since the start of May. His March/April numbers are really propping up his full-season stats, though he’s still had 70 strikeouts over his last 66.2 innings, so we’ll see if he can use that to create more margin for error.

When Gil faced the Sox on June 14, he allowed one run on four hits. He did walk four, but the Red Sox were unable to fully capitalize. In three starts since, the current Rookie of the Year favorite has allowed 16 runs on 14 hits over his last 9.2 innings of work. Gil is +200 to win that award, but Wyatt Langford and others, including Red Sox Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, have closed the gap with Gil’s recent hiccups.

Gil has 102 K in 89.2 IP, but a high walk rate and some batted ball regression have turned the tide a bit for him. He’s allowed a homer in each of his last three starts and has allowed a 47.4% Hard Hit% with an 11.5% Barrel% in six starts since the beginning of June. He only has six strikeouts against nine walks in those last three outings, so the control and command have both malfunctioned.

I think this is a tough handicap as a result. Both bullpens are fine after yesterday’s blowout win for New York, so that isn’t really a huge factor. Both Crawford and Gil have had tough moments lately. 

Based on the recent bodies of work for the two teams, I lean Red Sox here at the plus-money price, especially because a rookie like Gil may struggle to find answers, while a vet like Crawford may be better equipped to battle through, especially because he isn’t creating his own problems with walks.

Pick: Red Sox +110

Red Sox vs. Yankees Player Props

Luis Gil Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-130)

This is definitely chalky, but with his control problems and the deep counts that come from having 150 strikeouts or walks out of 372 batters faced, it is tough to see Gil working deep into this game on a very hot night. With the way that the Yankees have been playing, there is a heightened sense of urgency from manager Aaron Boone and that could also mean a quicker hook. Gil has gone under this in four straight starts and that includes his lone outing against Boston.