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Memorial Day travel forecast: What to expect this holiday

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Memorial Day travel forecast: What to expect this holiday

AAA said it projects 43.8 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Memorial Day holiday traveling period, which is the second-highest forecast since AAA began its tracking in 2000.

“We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “We’re projecting an additional one million travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019, which not only means we’re exceeding pre-pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead.”

Memorial Day 2024: Gas prices

AAA is predicting that 38.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, the highest for that weekend since AAA began tracking in 2000, according to their press release. The number of drivers is up 4% from last year and 1.9% from 2019.

According to AAA, drivers can expect similar gas prices to last year when the national average was around $3.57, but prices may creep up as the summer driving season progresses. Unlike last year, there are now two wars- in the Middle East and Ukraine- which could rock the oil market, leaving the cost of oil a wildcard, according to AAA.

Airports expected to be busy over Memorial Day

AAA says airports are bracing for a spike in travelers. 3.51 million people are expected to travel by plane over the holiday weekend, an increase of 4.8% from last year and a 9% jump compared to 2019, according to AAA. This is expected to be the most crowded Memorial Day weekend at airports since 2005, when 3.64 million flew for the holiday as the travel industry rebounded post-9/11, according to AAA’s press release.

AAA says the air ticket prices are comparable to last year, their booking data shows a 1% to 2% increase in prices for domestic flights, but several factors play into airfare such as destination, number of stops and fare class.

Other forms of travel

According to AAA, 1.9 million people are expected to travel by other forms of transportation including buses, cruises and trains, which is an increase of 5.6% from last year.

“This category took the biggest hit during the pandemic with fewer people taking public transportation or not cruising at all,” Twidale said. “Now – five years later – we’re back to 2019 numbers. Travel demand has been soaring, and long holiday weekends create the perfect windows for getaways.”

Best and worst times to drive during Memorial Day weekend

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says drivers leaving Thursday or Friday should hit the road early to avoid mixing with commuters. Travelers going back home on Sunday or Monday should avoid the afternoon hours when return trips will peak, according to AAA’s press release.

  • Thursday, May 23: The worst times to drive are between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m., while the best are before 11 a.m. and after 7 p.m., according to INRIX.
  • Friday, May 24: The worst times to drive are between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m., while the best are before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m., according to INRIX.
  • Saturday, May 25: The worst times to drive are between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., while the best are before 1 p.m. and after 6 p.m., according to INRIX.
  • Sunday, May 26: The worst times to drive are between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., while the best time is before 1 p.m., according to INRIX.
  • Monday, May 27: The worst times to drive are between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m., while the best time is after 7 p.m., according to INRIX.

Peak Congestion by Metro in New York

According to INRIX, the route from NY to Albany New York via I-87N is expected to be at peak congestion around Thursday at 11:45 a.m., with an estimated travel time of two hours and 37 minutes. This is a 64% increase compared to normal, according to INRIX.

Top Travel Destinations over Memorial Day

Here are the top 10 domestic destinations based on AAA booking data:

  • Orlando, FL
  • Seattle, WA
  • New York, NY
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Anaheim/ Los Angeles, CA
  • Denver, CO
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Fort Lauderdale, FL
  • Miami, FL
  • Boston, MA

Travel Trends

As travelers make plans for summer and beyond, AAA Travel has identified the following trends:

  • Bucket Lists: Travelers taking once-in-a-lifetime trips
  • Milestones: Families booking anniversary, retirement, and family reunion trips
  • Asia: More travelers interested in visiting Asia, especially Japan
  • Solo Trips: More people, especially women, interested in traveling by themselves
  • Luxury Vacations: More travelers seeking high-end cruises and tours
  • Trains: Many travelers interested in rail vacations across New England, Canada, and Europe
  • Adventure in Nature: Travelers booking trips to Antarctica, Africa, and South Pacific

According to AAA, surveys were distributed to a random sample of their travel agents between March 18 and March 29, 2024, to understand recent traveler trends over the past 60 days. AAA agent responses were collected from 13 AAA clubs (representing 97% of AAA membership overall as of February 2024), according to AAA’s press release.

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