La Niña Still Expected To Develop In Coming Months | Weather.com

La Niña is still expected to develop in the coming months, possibly having effects later in the 2024 hurricane season and next winter, according to an updated government outlook.

Neutral conditions are in place right now: Following El Niño’s official demise in June, waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have remained near average this month. That means neither El Niño, nor its counterpart La Niña, are ongoing.

Y​ou can see this in the analysis of sea-surface temperatures below, which shows that waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are a mix of cooler and warmer than average.

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T​he forecast: In the coming months, water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are forecast to cool gradually to the threshold that meets La Niña conditions. A​ La Niña watch has been issued by NOAA in anticipation of its likely development.

There is a 70% chance La Niña will develop sometime from August to October, which includes the heart of the hurricane season, according to the latest NOAA update. That said, it notes the latest forecast guidance shows La Niña’s emergence is expected to be delayed from previous expectations to most likely between September and November.

W​hy this matters: La Niña’s cooling effect on the equatorial Pacific waters can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away, including near the U.S. While far from the only driver of the weather pattern, here are some impacts you could see in this transition to La Niña:

-​ An active Atlantic hurricane season, particularly in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Colorado State University’s updated forecast released on Tuesday calls for 25 named storms, which is two more than their previous outlook. (That 25 includes the three that have already developed – Alberto, Beryl and Chris.)

-​ A warmer, drier winter 2024-25 in the South, colder winter in the Northern Plains and wetter winter in the Pacific Northwest.

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I​s it weird to go from a strong El Niño to La Niña? According to NOAA’s Tom Di Liberto in a February 2024 ENSO blog, a La Niña followed an El Niño event more than half the time. Di Liberto also noted five of the eight strong El Niños since 1950 were quickly followed by a La Niña.

(MORE:​ What Is La Niña? A Deeper Dive)​

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.