Keith Law’s MLB Draft biggest surprises, best team hauls and best players still available

After all of the gossip and rumors and claims that there would be some crazy pre-draft deals with players and shocking picks, the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft mostly comprised the guys we thought would go in the first. MLB teams selected 74 players on Day 1, and 66 were in my top 100.

Of the first 30 picks — the true first round — 25 of those players were ranked in my top 31. There weren’t huge shocks, no non-top 100 types taken in the first round, no outrageous reaches, and for the most part the best guys went at the top of the draft.

Here are some general observations followed by my pick-by-pick thoughts for the entire first round. I’ll have team-by-team recaps for all 30 clubs later this week, so if I didn’t mention your team here, patient you must be.

Cleveland Guardians: They had the first pick and took one of the only two valid options in my opinion, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana. The Guardians then turned around and took a high school pitcher, Braylon Doughty, with their Competitive Balance Round A (CBA) pick at 36, which I assume will absorb much of the savings from what will probably be an under-slot deal with Bazzana. They followed up with NC State catcher Jacob Cozart, who quietly had a tremendous year at the plate for the Wolfpack, with their second-round pick (No. 48). I feel like they landed two everyday players at positions up the middle, and then took a sensible flier on a very good high school arm.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies landed the No. 1 player on my board, Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon, and grabbed another first-round talent in Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht with their CBA pick at 38. Brecht is a project, a high school arm on a college pitcher’s body, so to speak, but if anyone needs to take chances on high-upside pitching, it’s the Rockies.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dbacks landed two players from my top 15 in high school outfielder Slade Caldwell (No. 29) and Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (No. 31). Caldwell is a diminutive outfielder from Arkansas who probably goes much higher if he’s 6 feet tall, but he can really hit and defend. Waldschmidt was one of the best hitters in the college group but apparently slid as some teams were concerned about the knee injury (ACL) that ended his 2023 season. They went for some upside with JD Dix, a high school infielder from Wisconsin who is committed to Oregon State, at pick No. 35, and then reached quite a bit for their last pick of the day, Puerto Rican catcher Ivan Luciano (No. 64), who will probably come in under slot.

Kansas City Royals: Look, I don’t think Jac Caglianone is a two-way player, and I’m not sure I believe the Royals do, either, even though they announced him as one. He has the kind of power the Royals have been seeking for the entire history of the franchise, and it makes all the sense in the world to take him at No. 6, when he was one of the best players available anyway. I also love the pick of left-hander David Shields at 41. He earned very high marks for his delivery and feel to pitch, and I’m all about taking high schoolers who have those things and whose big velocity may be a few years down the line.

New York Mets and New York Yankees: If you don’t love New York, skip this note. I love the Mets’ two picks, with Carson Benge (No. 19) a real upside play as a hitter who makes very hard contact and needs some small tweaks to get to power; and Jonathan Santucci (No. 46), the Duke left-hander with first-round stuff and some injury concerns after his 2023 spring ended due to a fractured elbow. Santucci was their second-round pick, and taking the chance on a first-round arm like that with your second pick is a great gamble. Meanwhile, the Yankees took a personal favorite of mine in this draft, Alabama right-hander Ben Hess, with their first pick (No. 26), and followed it up with Vanderbilt righty Bryce Cunningham (No. 53). Both seem like the sort of pitchers who thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.

Seattle Mariners: I heard the Mariners wanted pitching, and they landed two of the pitchers in my top 30 with switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 15) and prep right-hander Ryan Sloan (No. 55). (Commissioner Rob Manfred announced Cijntje as a “switch-handed pitcher.” What? We don’t say “switch-handed hitter.” It’s switch-hitter and it should be switch-pitcher.) Sloan is very much a now stuff guy, up to 100 mph with a plus changeup, and if he can show he’ll throw enough strikes the Mariners should be aggressive with him. Their system is very hitter-heavy, and it just so happened that the draft presented them with a pair of first-round arms.

Washington Nationals: The Nats did well with their three picks, one just acquired on Saturday from the Royals for Hunter Harvey, landing Wake Forest shortstop/centerfielder Seaver King with their first pick (No. 10) and a high-upside high school infielder in Luke Dickerson with their third pick (No. 44). They used the new pick (No. 39) on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita, fair value at that pick, although I can’t warm up to a guy who is as impatient as he is at the plate.

Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies make surprise picks: The biggest surprises of the first round by ranking were Braylon Payne (Milwaukee) and Dante Nori (Philadelphia). Payne went at 17 overall; I ranked him 78th, despite his 80 speed, because he needs to get a lot stronger just to hit enough to make the speed matter. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but that takes time, and there’s risk that he doesn’t get to the strength he’ll need. Nori went 27th overall, and I had him 65th, more than anything because he’s a 19-year-old high school product — he’ll turn 20 in October. He does have tools, and I think there might be another grade of power in there if someone loosens up his lower half. I’m not saying either is a bad pick, not by any means, but I didn’t see either guy going in the first.

Vance Honeycutt went to the Orioles at pick 22. (Ben McKeown / Associated Press)

Where the high-profile names landed: Most of the famous guys coming into the draft went lower than their fame might have implied. Caglianone may have been the most famous player in the class, and he went sixth, not too shabby but not the 1-1 that the hype would have led you to believe. Vance Honeycutt scraped his way into the first round at 22 with Baltimore. Tommy White, a.k.a. Tommy Tanks, who was the top freshman in the country in 2022, ended up going at pick 40 to the A’s. The industry is pretty good at ignoring the hype and evaluating the player.

Best available players for Day 2

1. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (ranked No. 34)
2. Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech (No. 35)
3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 49)
4. D’Marion Terrell, OF, Thompson HS, AL (No. 52)
5. Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (No. 54)
6. Carson Wiggins, RHP, Roland HS, OK (No. 55)
7. Jared Jones, 1B, LSU (No. 57)
8. Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker HS, AL (No. 61)
9. Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot HS, ID (No. 63)
10. Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (No. 65)

The list of best players still available looks different this year — usually it’s mostly high school guys with high price tags, but this year the first three are college bats, and only four of the 10 best players remaining are high schoolers. D’Marion Terrell and Connor Gatwood are both committed to Auburn, Dax Whitney is committed to Oregon State, and Carson Wiggins is committed to Arkansas. I imagine the six college players here will go off the board quickly unless there’s a medical or some other non-baseball factor I haven’t heard about.

(Top photo: LM Otero / Associated Press)