Justin Trudeau suffers shock by-election defeat in Liberal stronghold

The defeat in St Paul’s is likely to prompt conversations within the Liberal Party about his leadership.

Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative campaign manager, said on Monday that the by-election could end up being “Trudeau’s last stand”.

A loss means Liberal MPs “who all know their jobs are on the line in a year’s time are going to start getting vocal not just internally but externally”, he told broadcasters, according to Politico.

According to projections by 338Canada, the Conservatives would take 209 seats if an election had been held on June 23 – substantially clear of the 172 seats needed for a majority – while the Liberals would topple to 70.

The Liberals have a less than one per cent chance of forming either a majority or a minority government after the next election, it forecasts.

Downplayed result

Nevertheless, Liberal sources have downplayed the significance of the St Paul’s result, arguing that a by-election could not be applied to a general election.

“If you have [a lone race] in the summer, during an Oilers [hockey] game, during everything else that is going on, there’s always an element of unpredictability when you look at turnout, when you look at the ability to get people to the polls,” Stevie O’Brien, a former chief of staff to Liberal ministers, said.

Despite his waning popularity, Mr Trudeau is expected to seek a fourth term in office in the 2025 election – a feat that only two prime ministers have ever pulled off.

None of the potential replacements for Mr Trudeau would significantly sway the voting public towards the Liberals, according to research from polling firm Angus Reid published on Monday.

It also found Canadians are most concerned by the government’s lack of progress on issues including housing and cost of living.

A study from May concluded that Canada was suffering one of its worst declines in living standards in 40 years, and had one of the latest rates of growth in the G7.

The Fraser Institute found that from mid-2019 to the end of 2023, GDP per person dropped three per cent when adjusted for inflation, from $59,905 (£34,625) to $58,111.