Iran warns Israel will face “formidable defeat” against Hezbollah

Iranian officials have shared with Newsweek a warning to Israel over potential plans to conduct a major offensive against the Lebanese Hezbollah movement amid intensive cross-border clashes taking place on the sidelines of the ongoing war with the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip.

The comments came a day after Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi told personnel near the northern border on Tuesday that “we are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made” regarding “an offensive in the north.” The comment was the latest in a series of remarks by Israel officials hinting at military action in Lebanon since the outbreak of the war in Gaza last October.

In response, the Iranian Mission to the United Nations asserted that Iranian officials “do not lend any credence whatsoever to the rhetoric of certain Israeli regime officials who threaten a ground offensive in southern Lebanon,” and argued such an undertaking would only prove a major setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Although Netanyahu might seek to escalate the crisis and expand the geography of the war to maintain his grip on power,” the Iranian Mission told Newsweek, “the rulers of the Zionist regime and its supporters are acutely aware that—having already failed against Hamas—they will undoubtedly face a more formidable defeat against Hezbollah, which boasts significantly superior military strength compared to Hamas.”

Tehran is a key supporter of Hezbollah, which the IDF estimates has amassed an arsenal of up to 200,000 rockets, as well as other armaments such as drones, mortars, anti-tank weapons and precision-guided missiles that Iranian officials argue precludes the need for direct intervention from the Islamic Republic.

“Our assessment indicates that Hezbollah does not desire such a conflict but stands prepared for any eventuality,” the Iranian Mission said. “Hezbollah possesses sufficient capabilities to defend itself and Lebanon independently, without requiring assistance from Iran.”

Newsweek has reached out to Hezbollah, the IDF and the Office of the Israeli Prime Minister for comment.

A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council referred Newsweek to comments made Friday by U.S. President Joe Biden when he unveiled a three-phase ceasefire deal for the nearly eight-month war in Gaza along with the release of Hamas-held hostages and Palestinians in Israeli prisons.

“And once a ceasefire and hostage deal is concluded, it unlocks the possibility of a great deal more progress, including calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon,” Biden said during his speech.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan also referenced these remarks during a press briefing Tuesday, saying “a ceasefire in Gaza can lead to a calm on the border between Israel and Lebanon—an end to the exchanges of fire that have destabilized but, beyond that, have cause death and destruction on both sides of the border.”

And yet, as the U.S. leader’s plan is being considered by both Israel and Hamas, conflict has only intensified across the Israel-Lebanon border, which has been the site of near-daily hostilities since the beginning of what has become the longest and deadliest war in Gaza.

Attention was especially drawn to Israel’s northern front on Monday after a barrage of Hezbollah rockets sparked massive wildfires that rapidly spread through northern Israel, sparking a large-scale emergency services response. The following day, Netanyahu convened his war cabinet to discuss the situation at the border.

“We are prepared for very intense action in the north,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the border on Wednesday. “One way or another, we will restore security to the north.”

Israeli officials estimate that up to 80,000 people have already been evacuated from communities in the country’s north as a result of the clashes and the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has placed the number of those displaced from southern Lebanon at nearly 93,000.

Israel and Lebanon have no formal diplomatic relations and have a lengthy history of conflict, with the most recent war erupting between the IDF and Hezbollah in July 2006. The month-long conflict ended with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of nonstate actors in Lebanon and the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani river.

Israel has frequently accused Hezbollah of violating the resolution by conducting activities near the border and has argued that U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers have failed to enforce the buffer zone. Hezbollah and Lebanon officials have also charged Israeli forces with frequent violations of the resolution by occupying border posts and conducting regular flyovers over Lebanese territory.

While occasional incidents persisted along what’s known as the Blue Line dividing Israel and Lebanon, the war in Gaza has prompted the largest outbreak of violence since 2006, with frequent concerns over a new all-out war on this front.

Days after Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah portrayed the ongoing clashes as a “battle of destiny” for both Lebanese and Palestinians in a televised speech on Friday, his deputy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that “any Israeli expansion of the war on Lebanon will be met with devastation, destruction and displacement in Israel.

After the IDF announced the formation of a new mountaineer brigade to operate along the northern borders with Lebanon and Syria in March, a Hezbollah spokesperson told Newsweek that the group is “ready to resist all possibilities and any changes.”

Meanwhile, the group claimed at least 10 new attacks throughout Wednesday, targeting military positions across northern Israel and the Israel-occupied Shebaa Farms region “in support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their valiant and honorable resistance.” The operations were said to have been carried out using rockets, drones, mortars and anti-tank weapons.

The IDF, for its part, reported Wednesday on two explosive drones launched from Lebanon against the northern Israeli town of Hurfeish as well as Israel’s interception of another “hostile aircraft” and multiple IDF air and artillery strikes conducted against Hezbollah launchers, military structures and other targets in at least nine locations across southern Lebanon.

Israel has also faced hostile fire on other fronts as well since the ongoing war in Gaza, with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, and other groups part of the broader Iran-lined “Axis of Resistance” coalition regularly claiming attacks on their mutual foe with the stated aim of halting the IDF’s campaign in Gaza.

Tehran has touted its support for such forces but has denied having direct command and control over them.

This support was put on full display when acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri met with Nasrallah to discuss the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon in Beirut. The following day, Bagheri traveled to Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, also a member of the “Axis of Resistance.”

Syria has been subject to a years-long campaign of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran-linked positions throughout the country, but one strike in particular in Damascus that killed senior Iranian military officials in April prompted an unprecedented Iranian missile and drone response directly targeting Israel.

With the region still on edge, reports emerged Monday of Saeed Abyar’s death, another adviser of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) killed as a result of Israeli airstrikes in Syria’s second city of Aleppo.

On Wednesday, IRGC commander Major General Hossein Salami issued a new threat of retaliation over the fallen adviser’s death.

“The Zionist child murderers should bear in mind that they will pay the price for the pure blood shed in this crime,” Salami said, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency, “and they should wait for the response.”