Here’s who will win big at the Tony Awards on Sunday

Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

The race: The Best Actress race comes down to a photo finish between newcomer Maleah Joi Moon and veterans Kelli O’Hara and Maryann Plunkett. O’Hara gave what may be the performance of her career—which is saying a lot—as an alcoholic wife and mother in Days of Wine and Roses, and Plunkett is a revered industry figure who received a Special Citation from the New York Drama Critics’ Circle this year for lifetime achievement. But both of them already have Tonys, and voters tend to find it hard to resist a star-is-born turn like Moon’s. We think the newbie will take it by a nose, but we wouldn’t put money on it.

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Brody Grant, The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub 

The race: This is Brian d’Arcy James’s fifth Tony nomination, and he hasn’t won yet. He’ll have to wait a bit longer, though: The special sauce in the Merrily revival is Groffsauce, and the widely beloved actor is nearly certain to take the win for his radiantly sincere central performance. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Amy Ryan, Doubt

The race: What a difficult choice for voters this year, and what a wonderful problem to have. It’s a three-way race among mothers: Past winner Jessica Lange may well win for her arresting work in Mother Play, and Rachel McAdams could score an upset with her heartbreakingly sunny Broadway debut as the mom of a severely disabled child. But the odds favor Sarah Paulson for her relentless performance as the tough center of Appropriate. 

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious
Liev Schreiber, Doubt
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

The race: In a somewhat less exciting three-way race than the one for Best Actress, we think the top vote-getters will be Strong, Odom and Stuhlbarg—and that Strong, who has never won before and who anchored a hit production that is still running, has the somewhat strongest path. 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
Amber Iman, Lempicka
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot
Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

The race: This Tony category is often a heartbreaker, since there are usually so many worthy contenders for a single honor. That’s especially true this year, when ties in the nominating process have yielded a whopping seven nominees (and at least three or four others could easily have made the cut). Neuwirth is a community favorite, but we think this race ultimately comes down to Mendez and Lewis, both of whom are terrific in their shows. The former won a few years ago for Carousel, and the latter has been paying her dues for decades. But in a race this close, the deciding factor may be practical: The pregnant Mendez has missed a lot of performances this spring—including, presumably, some at which Tony voters were present. That just might put Lewis over the top. 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Roger Bart, Back To The Future: The Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell’s Kitchen
Sky Lakota-Lynch, The Outsiders
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

The race: Radcliffe’s tour-de-force performance of the breakdown song “Franklin Shepherd, Inc.” explodes like a hand grenade in Merrily We Roll Along, propelling the rest of the production forward. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a major star—and a major box-office draw—who has also proved endearingly humble and hardworking in all five of his Broadway shows.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY 

Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt: A Parable
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

The race: The showdown between Stereophonic‘s Pidgeon and Purlie‘s Young may be the single tightest race of the night, and it’s one that no one can confidently predict. Pidgeon benefits from several things: There is a lot of enthusiasm for Stereophonic generally and for its ensemble cast specifically; the production is still running, and just extended its run; she arguably has the play’s most memorable role; and she sings a lot, which voters love. (Just ask Audra McDonald, who has won two Tonys for singing in plays.) But Young’s masterful turn in Purlie is hard to forget, and this is her third nomination in this category in three years. Our gut feeling is that voters will skew Young and look to the Best Featured Actor category to honor Stereophonic.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

The race: The three actors from Stereophonic that are nominated in this category may cancel each other out and open a door for the well-respected Stoll to sneak in. But we think this will be the place where voters honor one member of Stereophonic‘s excellent ensemble as a way of recognizing the whole cast by synecdoche. Brill is the best-known actor in the bunch, and has sensational moments toward the start of the play; but his character fades in importance as the play goes on, whereas’s Gelb’s becomes more and more central. We predict that will tip the scales toward Gelb, but anything could happen. 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif, Hell’s Kitchen
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders 

The race: It’s a crime that Michael Greif has never won a Tony—even for Rent or Dear Evan Hansen—and the fact that he directed three original musicals this spring is a major accomplishment. But his Susan Lucci streak seems likely to continue even if Hell’s Kitchen wins Best Musical; Maria Friedman’s success in turning Merrily We Roll Along around is likely to earn her this award.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate
Whitney White, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding 

The race: A Best Play victory usually means one for Best Director as well, and this year will be no exception: Aukin is all but guaranteed to win. 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Annie-B Parson, Here Lies Love
Camille A. Brown, Hell’s Kitchen
Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, Water for Elephants

The race: Illinoise is a dance show, which gives Justin Peck a huge advantage. If anyone can pull off a dark-horse surprise, it will be Camille A. Brown for her vital work in Hell’s Kitchen or Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman for The Outsiders memorable rumble.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Timo Andres, Illinoise
Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic
Justin Levine, Matt Hinkley and Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance), The Outsiders
Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell’s Kitchen
Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

The race: Longtime Sondheim orchestrator Jonathan Tunick is a legend in his field—he’s an EGOT winner, for cripes’ sake!—who won the very first Tony for Best Orchestrations in 1997 and has been nominated 11 times since. But there was no award for orchestrations when he first created them for Merrily We Roll Along back in 1981. Tony voters have a chance to honor him now for his superb work on the show, and we predict they will do just that—though Timo Andres has a fighting chance for his treatment of Sufjan Stevens’s score for Illinoise. 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, Hell’s Kitchen
Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephants
David Korins, Here Lies Love
Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini, Lempicka
Tim Hatley and Finn Ross, Back To The Future: The Musical
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

The race: This category of seven is crowded with good work, but it will be a grave injustice if behind-the-scenes wizard David Korins doesn’t win his first (!) Tony for his stunning transformation of the Broadway Theatre into an immersive nightclub space in Here Lies Love. If Tony voters’ memory fails them, however, Tom Scutt’s less radical but still pretty impressive transformation of the August Wilson Theatre into Cabaret‘s Kit Kat Club might steal the prize.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

dots, Appropriate
dots, An Enemy of the People
Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious
David Zinn, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
David Zinn, Stereophonic

The race: David Zinn and the collective known as dots are each are nominated twice in this category, but the big fight will be between their designs for Stereophonic and Appropriate, respectively. We think dots will take it for a final coup de théâtre that brings down the house.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Dede Ayite, Hell’s Kitchen
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby
David Israel Reynoso, Water for Elephants
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Paul Tazewell, Suffs

The race: As is often the British way, scenographer Scutt designed not only the sets for Cabaret but its costumes as well. We think this is where the Tonys will honor his work.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Dede Ayite, Appropriate
Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic
Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious
David Zinn, An Enemy of the People

The race: Stereophonic‘s parade of 1970s finery, designed by Enver Chakartash, could well win the day. But this has been a huge year for Dede Ayite, as her three nominations attest—and of the three, Ayite is most likely to win for her vivid costumes in Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, which perfectly complemented the hair design for which Nikiya Mathis is receiving a Special Tony Award this year. 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Brandon Stirling Baker, Illinoise
Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Natasha Katz, Hell’s Kitchen
Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants
Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

The race: All five of this year’s nominees did exquisite work, so the winner is anyone’s guess. We’re tempted to call it for Byrd, who is also nominated for her beautiful work in Enemy of the People, but this seems like a category in which voters can spread some wealth to The Outsiders.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People
Amith Chandrashaker, Prayer for the French Republic
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic
Jane Cox, Appropriate
Natasha Katz, Grey House

The race: In another highly competitive category, our guess is Cox for illuminating the dark secrets of the family manse in Appropriate. But if voters have Stereophonic fever, this may be one more place to show it.

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BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

M.L. Dogg and Cody Spencer, Here Lies Love
Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Nick Lidster for Autograph, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gareth Owen, Hell’s Kitchen
Cody Spencer, The Outsiders 

The race: The marvelous voices in Hell’s Kitchen are beautifully served by Garther Owen’s sound design, which we believe will give him the edge. 

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BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

Justin Ellington and Stefania Bulbarella, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Leah Gelpe, Mary Jane
Tom Gibbons, Grey House
Bray Poor and Will Pickens, Appropriate
Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

The race: It will be a shock heard round the world if Ryan Rumery does not win for Stereophonic, in which the sound design is practically an eighth character.

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HONORARY AWARDS (NONCOMPETITIVE)

Special Tony Award 

Alex Edelman
Abe Jacob
Nikiya Mathis

Special Tony Award for Lifetime Achievement

Jack O’Brien
George C. Wolfe

Regional Theatre Tony Award

The Wilma Theatre

Tony Honors for Excellence in the Theatre

Wendall K. Harrington
Colleen Jennings-Roggernsack
Judith O. Rubin
The Dramatists Guild Foundation
The Samuel J. Friedman Health Center for the Performing Arts