Health care jobs with best growth, wage trends for the next 10 years in Michigan

Nearly all health care jobs are expected to experience workforce shortages over the next decade.

Home health and personal care aides are projected to face a shortage of more than 170,000 jobs over the next decade. It’s the largest expected shortage in the industry according to an analysis published Thursday, May 16, by the Michigan Health Council.

Nursing assistants are on the “unhealthiest” job growth trend thanks to some of the worst position shortages and turnover numbers, according to the 2024 Michigan Healthcare Workforce Index. Other low-ranking jobs include dental assistants and hygienists, clinical lab technologists and technicians, and psychologists.

At the other end of the spectrum, optometry jobs are projected to see the “healthiest” job growth, followed by group physicians, nurse practitioners, diagnostic medical sonographers, and physician assistants.

The Michigan Healthcare Workforce Index assessed position increases, wage growth, and turnover rates to rank the outlook for 36 industry job types.

Data compiled by the Michigan Health Council points to a growing health care workforce crisis that requires intervention from state leaders, according to Craig Donahue, the council’s CEO and president.

“The Index helped confirm what we’ve known anecdotally for years,” Donahue said in a prepared statement. “Now we need to identify and support solutions. Our hope is that decision-makers use this report to inform how to invest limited time and resources for maximum impact.”

Below is a database that ranks each of the 36 industry job types by projected job growth, job shortage, wage increases, and turnover rates based on data from 2012 to 2022.

After home health and personal care aids, the jobs with the largest projected shortages are nursing assistants, dental assistants, physical therapy assistants, and phlebotomists.

Only four occupations — radiation therapists, dentists, diagnostic medical sonographers and social workers (BSW) — are projected to have a surplus over the next 10 years, though the report found they can be poorly distributed throughout the state.

Michigan’s dentist supply, for example, is at the national average per 10,000 people, but about half of the counties in the state live in areas with a shortage of dentists.

The Michigan Health Council first published its healthcare workforce index last year. It pulled job counts and wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and generated projections using historic jobs data as well as college enrollment data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

Among the jobs that improved their standing since the 2023 report, due to a variety of factors including higher wages, were group physicians, licenses practical nurses (LPNs), licensed vocational nurses (LVNs), and social workers (child, family and school). Emergency Medical Technicians (EMT) also improved nine spots, largely due to job growth and a reduction in the state’s EMT shortage.

Nurse anesthetists, general dentists and “occupations requiring a Master’s degree in social work” slipped furthest since the 2023 rankings, largely due to poor wage trends.

“The 2024 Michigan Healthcare Workforce Index is a vital, unbiased tool to help stakeholders and policymakers understand the current healthcare workforce landscape and build the healthcare workforce of the future,” said Ruthanne Sudderth, senior vice president and chief strategy officer for the Michigan Health & Hospital Association.

The full 24-page report is available at mhc.org/index.