Guess What Will Drive Most Retail Sales By 2028, According to Forrester

Worldwide, the online shopping business will be worth $6.8 trillion by 2028, a new Forrester study predicted, up from $4.4 trillion last year

While that represents a growth of more than $2 trillion, the prognostication is more conservative than other estimates pegging e-commerce at $6 trillion in 2024. But that’s not the most fascinating aspect. This is: The research firm’s outlook reckons that the larger global retail market will hit $28.7 trillion in sales.

There’s a fascinating aspect in this math. If most of those transactions aren’t happening online, they will necessarily have to come from somewhere else — namely physical shops.

Despite the upheaval with brick-and-mortar stores, with new openings from coast to coast contrasting waves of closures by Express, Rue21, Macy’s and others, physical shopping appears to be riding out the storm. Coresight Research indicated as much earlier this month, with analyst Bryan Gildenberg telling WWD, “For all the noise about retail apocalypses, store chains since the end of COVID are on a net opening front in the U.S.”

Now Forrester believes physical shopping isn’t just holding on, but will continue having an outsize role in retail, at least for the near future. As much as 76 percent of those $28.7 trillion in global sales, which equates to $21.9 trillion, will happen offline, it said.

In a blog post on Thursday, Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst, explained, “Although widespread store closures and social distancing during the pandemic turbocharged e-commerce growth, recent years saw a growth reversal as consumers flocked back to physical stores.”

However, he expects e-commerce to “regain momentum” due to efforts like shopping offers and generative AI initiatives. This effort is already well underway, with an Nvidia survey in January revealing that 98 percent of retailers plan to invest in the tech over the next year and a half.

E-commerce will also benefit from other factors, Miglani added, such as maturing channels — think online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, direct-to-consumer commerce and others — plus expanding internet access reaching a growing number of young consumers and more innovative payment solutions.

In the U.S. alone, e-commerce is expected to reach $1.6 trillion in four years, up from $1 trillion in 2023, accounting for 28 percent of all retail sales in this market.