French election projections show voters punishing Macron’s centrists, boosting far right

The projections showed National Rally narrowly falling short of a majority of seats. If it can expand its lead in the second round of voting on July 7, it could form the country’s first far-right government since World War II, with 28-year-old Bardella as prime minister, and replace Macron’s pro-Europe, pro-business agenda with its populist, euroskeptic and anti-immigration platform.

Alternatively, a second-round result that doesn’t produce a clear majority could paralyze French politics.

“The French crisis has only just started,” said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States.

Bardella pledged Sunday night to become “the prime minister of all French people” and promote “unity of the nation.” He then lashed out at the left and far-left, now his main competition, saying they “would lead the country to disorder, to insurrection and the ruin of our economy.”

Le Pen declared in a speech Sunday night that voters had conveyed a “desire to turn the page after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power.”

Macron did not acknowledge defeat. In a statement, he hailed the unusually high vote turnout and called for “a broad, clearly democratic and republican rally for the second round.” But the projected results suggested that his gamble in calling snap elections had backfired spectacularly and that his influence over French politics is rapidly waning.

Araud compared him with Napoleon Bonaparte when the French emperor launched his failed campaign to invade Russia in 1812. Many politicians who have supported Macron for years face the possibility of losing their seats, leaving him politically isolated.

Macron could stay on as president until his term expires in 2027 — and he has said he will not resign. But he wouldn’t be able to do much to prevent the adoption of laws passed by a far-right majority or enact new policies in the case of a hung parliament.

Sunday’s projected results are likely to cause alarm in many European capitals. France is one of the European Union’s original members, its second largest economy and a driving force in E.U. affairs. The National Rally party no longer advocates leaving the bloc, but many of its proposals are out of step with E.U. policies.

Another concern is whether the French far right might undermine Europe’s support for Ukraine and its stance on Russia. Le Pen is already challenging Macron’s hold on French foreign policy and defense, suggesting the president play a more honorary role as commander in chief of the armed forces.

A hung parliament in France could unsettle European politics. France looks like it is heading for “deadlock and confusion with an irreconcilably blocked National Assembly,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. “This spells bad news for France, the E.U. and Ukraine.”

In many ways, Sunday’s vote was a referendum on Macron, who founded a movement in his own image and upended French politics when he became the first modern president elected from outside the center-left and center-right parties that had dominated French politics for decades.

Having twice fended off Le Pen for the presidency, in 2017 and 2022, Macron was seen by his supporters as a masterful political strategist and perhaps the only French politician capable of derailing the rise of the far right.

But in the coming days, Macron’s centrist alliance could “explode,” said Pierre Mathiot, a political scientist at Sciences Po Lille.“The center right will reorganize itself without Macron,” he said.

Some of Macron’s critics accuse him of an imperial governing style and of decimating the traditional political parties in a way that made extreme parties the only viable outlets for anyone frustrated with his program.

The National Rally party grew out of a fringe movement co-founded by Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who repeatedly called the Nazi gas chambers a “detail” of history and reinforced the toxicity of the far right in many circles. But efforts by Marine Le Pen and Bardella to make the party more broadly appealing have yielded significant gains, and the party served Macron’s coalition a humiliating defeat in European Parliament elections on June 9.

While Macron wasn’t required to dissolve France’s National Assembly, he said he had little choice. If he had not called the vote, he told reporters, “you would have told me: ‘This guy has lost touch with reality.’”

He seemed to be betting that the possibility of a far-right government would mobilize his supporters and reinforce his party’s mandate. But he appears to have both underestimated the far right and the French left, which — despite deep divisions — was able to cobble together a broad alliance, unified at least in part by opposition to Macron.

Although turnout on Sunday was more on par with a presidential election than a legislative first round, it appeared to primarily benefit the National Rally and the leftist alliance.

“It’s possible that he underestimated the hate that he generates in a part of the population,” said Chloé Morin, an author and political analyst.

Racist and antisemitic rhetoric and conspiracy theories spread by National Rally candidates came under scrutiny during the campaign sprint — and amplified questions about whether the party’s rebranding was merely window dressing. Almost 1 in 5 of National Rally’s candidates for parliament have made “racist, antisemitic and homophobic remarks,” French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said in a televised debate Thursday.

Many voters appeared undeterred by these concerns.

On Sunday, far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon cast his New Popular Front coalition as “the only alternative” to National Rally, amid the Macron alliance’s losses.

He said leftist candidates would drop out of races where they had placed third and risked splitting the vote in the second round, helping National Rally candidates win. That vow put pressure on Macron and his allies to promise the same.

Projections show that up to 315 second-round races could be between more than two candidates.

Attal said, vaguely, that the centrist alliance would withdraw candidates if their presence could prevent the victory of “another candidate — who, like us — defends the values of the Republic.”

But Macron has at times portrayed the far left as equally dangerous as the far right.

Mathiot, the political scientist, said the number of races with more than two candidates could be decisive next Sunday. “If there are many triangular races, the National Rally will have an absolute majority,” he said.

Rauhala reported from Brussels and Timsit from Nice, France.