Five NFL offseason storylines that are overblown; five that deserve more attention

I’ve come full circle on this one. I get why so many people didn’t like the selection of Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall originally, and I don’t blame them for feeling that way. Everything to that point of the offseason indicated Atlanta was making a push for now, and the Penix move appeared to undercut that in an odd way.

If you want to argue that it didn’t help Kirk Cousins get better, I hear you. But I’d push back on the idea that it didn’t make the team better. Falcons fans might be programmed a certain way, having seen Matt Ryan start virtually every game for a decade and a half, and Cousins had been pretty darned durable prior to last year’s Achilles injury, but having two quarterbacks capable of starting is seldom a bad thing.

I’m not worried about Cousins’ psyche. He’s seen too much (and made too much money) to be thrown off by this. And if Cousins does get hurt, the Falcons have legitimate hope with their Plan B, even if Penix is a rookie — in part because he’s a rookie who spent six years and made 45 starts in college.

Look, the NFC South is eminently winnable. The Falcons have a favorable schedule. You might not have liked their decision to protect their most important asset with a layer of insurance, but it’s hard to deny it might come in pretty handy.

I’m not exactly sure where I’d rate the expectations for Caleb Williams in Year 1, but they feel high to me. Perhaps not Andrew Luck-level rookie hype here, but I believe expectations are higher for Williams in Year 1 than they were for Trevor Lawrence a few years ago.

Those expectations should be muted more than they seem to be right now. The past seven quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall, dating back to Jameis Winston in 2015, have produced an average Year 1 season of roughly 14 starts, 16 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and about 3,100 pass yards. Pretty tame numbers collectively, even with a few positive outliers in the group.

Granted, the Bears offer Williams some things that few of those rookie QBs had: an exciting WR corps, the makings of a solid offensive line and other good foundational pieces on offense, not to mention an improved roster on defense and special teams. Williams is an exceptional talent, the likes of which the Bears might never have had at the position. The schedule also is quite manageable.

Bears fans might want and expect immediate fireworks, but I’m here to say that the show might start a bit slowly. Things might not be as frustrating as they were for Zach Wilson in 2021, but 2023 Jordan Love might be a decent comp. Love was a guy who waited his turn for three full years with the Packers — and yet, through nine games last season, Love looked ordinary, not really cranking it up several notches until Green Bay’s playoff push.

I could see Williams trudging through a Love-like performance in the first half of his rookie season, if not for a bit longer, before things really start to hum. Eventually they will. I’m not worried about Williams’ long-term projection. But I do believe the pressure to be great immediately comes from a chimerical perspective.