Exclusive: Battle for Iran’s closest-ever election revealed in new poll

As the 2024 election season heats up in the United States, Iranian voters have cast their vote for the final round of their snap presidential race. Newsweek has obtained exclusive polling data on the tight, high-stakes bout between a reformist and principalist, both with the potential to shape the course of the Islamic Republic’s outlook.

The survey, based on five waves of polls carried out between June 30 and July 4 by independent Toronto-based polling organization VoxNations, each with a sample size of around 800 Iranians above the voting age of 18 and a margin of error of between 3.4 and 3.5 percent, shows hard-liner conservative Saeed Jalili barely taking the lead in the latest count with 49 percent.

According to the same July 4 wave of responses, Masoud Pezeshkian, his rival and the only reformist of the six candidates who were approved by the Guardian Council and four who remained in the race, received 47 percent of the vote. He previously came out on top in the first four polls but fell as more respondents chose a candidate.

Still, the 4 percent of those who said they were undecided, did not know or did not answer, as well as the 3.5 percent margin of error, in the latest poll could sway the election in either direction.

“In the tight race between Jalili and Pezeshkian, neither candidate has been able to become the front runner, and everything hangs on whether Pezeshkian will be able to successfully implement his get-out-the-vote campaign on the day of the election,” Amir Farmanesh, CEO of VoxNations/IranPoll, told Newsweek. “This is the tightest presidential election the Islamic Republic has ever experienced.”

“In this election, candidates’ standing is significantly linked with turnout, and if the turnout changes on the day of the election, the candidates’ votes might also change,” Farmanesh said. “If the participation rate significantly increases in the second round, relative to the first, we can expect to see a change between survey results and the election outcome.”

Pezeshkian, a parliamentary representative of the Tabriz, Osku and Azarshahr electoral district who previously served as health minister and heart surgeon, won the first round of the extraordinary contest held exactly one week ago. It had been 40 days since the untimely death of President Ebrahim Raisi and his entourage in a helicopter accident near the border with Azerbaijan.

Pezeshkian, the first reformist to appear on the ballot since 2017 and a member of Iran’s sizable Azeri ethnic minority community won 42.5 percent of the vote in the June 28 round. Jalili, a close aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has possesses ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic, garnered 38.6 percent.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, conservative speaker of Parliament and former commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), gathered 13.8 percent. Firebrand cleric and former Justice Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi obtained only 0.8 percent.

Because no single candidate managed to top the 50 percent marker required for a clear victory, a runoff between Pezeshkian and Jalili is being held on Friday.

The race has emerged as one of the most unpredictable in the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic and has exposed divisions within the principalist camp, particularly between Jalili and Qalibaf. While hard-liner Raisi’s 2021 landslide victory previously saw the lowest-ever turnout in Iran’s post-1979 Islamic Revolution history, the first round of this year’s vote has so far demonstrated even greater disillusionment.

Just 40 percent of Iran’s 61 million eligible voters showed up to the polls last Friday in spite of predictions of a better showing and appeals by both Khamenei and the IRGC for a strong presence at the ballot.

Two other vetted candidates, Vice President Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, dropped out of the contest in favor of fellow conservatives just ahead of the first round. Notably, they did not explicitly endorse either Jalili, Qalibaf or Pourmohammedi at the time.

Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator with high positions in influential organizations such as the Supreme National Security Council, the Expediency Discernment Council, and the Foreign Relations Strategic Council, has long voiced skepticism of dealing with the West. This aversion is only strengthened by the U.S. decision to unilaterally abandon the multilateral nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, a move that has spurred massive sanctions on the Islamic Republic and an acceleration of its nuclear program.

Qalibaf, on the other hand, has expressed openness toward talks with Washington and its allies but official results showed his reputed pragmatism and IRGC connections failed to mobilize enough voters to uplift his campaign to the final stage. Pourmohammedi, the only cleric on the ballot, displayed an even more ambitious appeal for a departure from the status quo in the Islamic Republic, though he ultimately secured the smallest number of voters.

As the votes are tallied across Iran, questions remain as to how much of Qalibaf’s conservative base can be redirected toward Jalili and whether Pezeshkian could rally sufficient support to reverse Jalili’s steady gains over the past week.

“We are currently observing last-hour efforts on behalf of the Pezeshkian campaign to get out the vote, which, if successful, could lead to results that are more favorable towards his campaign,” Farmanesh said.

Though Pezeshkian and his open calls for domestic and foreign policy reforms initially won the largest share of Iranian voters, conservatives have increasingly consolidated power in Iranian politics, with Khamenei at the helm of the system. Neither Khamenei nor the IRGC have not publicly endorsed any candidate.

In a speech delivered Friday, Khamenei, who cast his own vote that same day, struck a positive tone despite the record-low turnout of the June 28 vote.

“Praise God, it is a good day,” Khamenei said. “It’s a day where the people are present and are participating. It’s a day where our dear people are actively involved in an important political matter of the country, that is, the elections.”

“I’ve heard that people’s enthusiasm and interest are greater than before,” he added. “I hope that is the case. If that is the case, it is something to be pleased about. God willing, our dear people will be able to vote and choose the best [candidate].”

The U.S., meanwhile, has cast doubt on the legitimacy and importance of Iran’s election, with State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel questioning the reliability of any official numbers and the contest’s capacity to result in major shifts in Iran’s direction.

“Our view is that these elections in Iran are not free and fair,” Patel told reporters on Monday, “and we have no expectation that these elections and whatever the outcome might be will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or lead the Iranian regime to offer more respect for human rights and more dignity for its citizens.”

Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected such allegations and have called into question the repercussions of the U.S.’ own democratic process, particularly the country’s policies in the Middle East at a time when conflict and crises were escalating.

Last week, after incumbent Democratic nominee U.S. President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump sparred in a televised debate that included several references to Iran, the Iranian Mission to the United Nations shared exclusively with Newsweek a largely dismissive reaction to the affair.

But the outcomes of presidential elections this year in both Tehran and Washington have the potential to impact the course of the unrest sweeping the Middle East since the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas last October. The still-raging conflict in the Gaza Strip has spurred violence on at least six other fronts across the region, including the first-ever direct exchange of attacks between Iran and Israel, as well as growing concerns of an even bigger escalation erupting.