European elections: Far right eyes vote surge and ditches German AfD – BBC News

If Ms Meloni’s EU grouping, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), does well in the elections there is a chance they could find common ground with the centre right of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Ms von der Leyen’s European People’s Party is likely to end up as the biggest group and she has left the door open to an alliance with the ECR as long as they are pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and in favour of rule of law.

The ECR includes not only Brothers of Italy, but also Poland’s right-wing populist opposition party, Law and Justice, Spain’s Vox, Riikka Purra’s Finns Party – part of the Finnish government – and Jimmy Akesson’s Sweden Democrats, who work with the Swedish government without being in it.

It is hard to imagine them all signing up to Ursula von der Leyen’s demands, especially when some centre-right parties in her group would not even countenance such an alliance. But if they did, then the European Parliament could steer policy in dramatically different directions, on green policies, migration and asylum.

If the two far-right groupings – ECR and ID – were to somehow overcome their internal differences, then they could form a powerful bloc too.

Sabine Volk is very doubtful of “one mega-coalition” of far-right parties, as is Matthias Dilling, a European politics specialist at Swansea University.

“The far right in Europe has had a history of division,” he says. “I don’t know whether we would see a single far right group as they continue to be, internally, fairly heterogeneous.”

The ID group, which is home to France’s National Rally, also includes Italy’s League, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang and the Danish People’s Party.

Opinions differ on what makes a party far-right, but Marine Le Pen, like Mr Wilders, objects to the label.

Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde – perhaps the best-known observer of Europe’s far right – says at its core it combines nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. He defines nativism as a “xenophobic form of nationalism”.

While France’s National Rally and Brothers of Italy have worked hard to shed the far-right label, Matthias Dilling says Cas Mudde’s three pillars are “very clearly present” in both parties.

Sabine Volk says policies on immigration and anti-feminism often tie far-right movements together. Some parties might back gender equality, but ideally would prefer women to stay at home, she argues.

Brothers of Italy recently pushed through a law allowing anti-abortion groups into abortion clinics to try to stop women terminating pregnancies.

Although some commentators see Hungary’s ruling nationalist-conservative Fidesz party as far-right, they are not in either far-right grouping.

Most far-right parties have traditionally sought to challenge the EU as a supranational force, and many still do.

But Ms Meloni’s party has left behind its “once vehement opposition to Brussels”, says Prof Leila Simona Talani of King’s College London. Her European Election manifesto says “we want Europe to be a political giant with a leading role internationally”.

Meanwhile, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) is fighting its election campaign on the slogan “Stop EU madness”, against a backdrop of Volodymyr Zelensky kissing the president of the European Commission and buzz phrases such as “asylum crisis”, “eco-communism” and “corona-chaos”.

Despite a succession of national scandals, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl is leading the EU election polls and could win national elections in the autumn.

Eurosceptic rhetoric remains widespread on the far right, but there is less talk now of leaving the EU.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party did back a Dutch “Nexit” referendum to leave the EU but now says: “I see there’s no longer support for a Nexit in the Netherlands”.

The same goes for The Finns Party, which does not actively seek a Finnish exit, or “Fixit” from the EU any more: “It is not realistic that Finland would unilaterally leave the EU” in the near future, it says.

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson has not dropped the idea completely, and wants to remove Sweden’s EU membership from its constitution.

Marine Le Pen has never been a fan of the EU either, but she no longer talks of leaving it. She has sought to accuse its officials of “promoting Islamism and wokeism” and of seeking to scrap Europe’s borders. Her party is now led by Jordan Bardella, who is number one on the EU election list. But a former boss of the EU’s Frontex border agency, Fabrice Leggeri, is at number three.

How this patchwork of nationalist politics plays out in the European Parliament after the votes on 6-9 June is hard to predict.

But the parties on the far right are far better organised than before, as the Madrid rally showed. Even Argentina’s President Javier Milei was there.

“It’s part of a long trajectory [for the far right] to form international ties and international networks,” says Matthias Dilling.

The question is whether they have the same ambition as Giorgia Meloni.

“I want to try something that’s not easy but fascinating, to repeat in Europe what we’ve achieved in Italy,” she told Italian TV.