Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate.
That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing.
Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future”. Moscow has relied heavily on Beijing to prosecute the conflict.
Orbán’s office declined to comment when contacted by the Financial Times, which has seen his letter. Trump’s campaign team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
His trips to see Putin, Xi and Trump over the past two weeks while holding the EU’s rotating presidency have shocked his allies in the bloc and Nato.
Many fear Orbán’s support for a peace settlement while Russia still controls vast amounts of eastern Ukraine plays into the Kremlin’s hands and undermines western resolve in support of Kyiv’s territorial integrity.
“We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter sent to European Council president Charles Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.”
That means the EU should anticipate the shift in US policy, Orbán said, and either embrace the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take on more responsibility for funding Ukraine’s defence.
JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio who Trump on Monday selected as his running mate, used an opinion piece in the FT in February to call for Europe to take on a larger burden in supporting Ukraine.
“I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine,” Orbán wrote in his letter.
The Hungarian prime minister has long been the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, criticising western sanctions on Moscow and military support for Ukraine while demanding a ceasefire in the war and peace talks.
That is in contrast to the EU’s joint position that it should aid Ukraine’s defence and that only Kyiv can decide on when to open negotiations with Russia.
“Our European strategy in the name of transatlantic unity has copied the pro-war policy of the US,” Orbán wrote.
“We have not had a sovereign and independent European strategy or political action plan up to now. I propose discussing whether the continuation of this policy is rational in the future.”
He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to begin a new chapter in our policy . . . [and] make an effort to decrease tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.”
Orbán’s description of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine tallies with a policy paper on the conflict written by two allies for the former president who are expected to take senior national security roles in his administration if he wins November’s US election.
The plan by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute proposed that the US continue to strengthen Ukraine’s defences, but future military aid would require Kyiv to participate in peace talks with Russia.
Additional reporting by Felicia Schwartz in Denver
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