Can McDavid’s Oilers overcome the Panthers? Breaking down the Stanley Cup Final

The Athletic has live coverage of the Stanley Cup Final Game 1 matchup of Panthers vs. Oilers

SUNRISE, Fla. — Seven 100-point seasons, five Art Ross trophies, four Ted Lindsay awards, three Hart trophies and one Rocket Richard Trophy, and Connor McDavid is now four wins away from the trophy he most covets — the Stanley Cup.

This should be one heck of a Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers, who in mid-November were in 31st place in the NHL before a coaching change sparked a 16-game winning streak, and the Florida Panthers, who just ousted the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers to win their second consecutive Eastern Conference championship.

The Oilers, back in the final for the first time since losing to Carolina in Game 7 in 2006, will attempt to become Canada’s first Stanley Cup champion since 1993. They’ll look to become the second team in NHL history to win the Stanley Cup after being 10-plus points out of a playoff spot during the regular season (St. Louis in 2018-19).

For the state of Florida, it’s been a minute since perhaps the actual “State of Hockey” has won the Stanley Cup — like a whole three years. This is the fifth consecutive year one of the two Florida-based NHL teams represented the East in the final.

“It’s kind of like a Christmas Eve feeling right now,” said the Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk. “It’s been a long week trying to keep your mind off it as much as possible, and just enjoy the warm weather outside as much as you can, but it’s hard not to think about Game 1 and now that it’s finally almost here, it’s more exciting now.”

Added McDavid after a long, busy buildup to Saturday, “I’m excited to get the madness over with.”

McDavid, who was drafted No. 1 in Florida’s Amerant Bank Arena in 2015, and Leon Draisaitl are 1-2 in playoff scoring with 59 combined points with Evan Bouchard leading all defensemen with 27 points and Zach Hyman following up his 54-goal regular season by leading all goal scores with 14.

Tkachuk, who has yet to have that big moment we became so accustomed to during last year’s run to the final, leads the Panthers with 19 points with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe having 17 each.

Special teams could be massive in this series.

The Oilers can become the first team since the 2011 Lightning to finish the playoffs ranking first in both power-play and penalty-kill percentage (min. 10 games played). Edmonton has 19 power-play goals (37.3 percent) and has allowed just three against (93.9 percent), killing off 28 in a row entering this series.

Florida’s power play has scored on 23.3 percent of its opportunities and its 14 power-play goals are tied for the most in a single postseason in franchise history. The Panthers’ penalty kill is at 88.2 percent to trail only the Oilers and pretty much shut down the Rangers’ daunting man advantage.

Draisaitl leads the league with six power-play goals and Hyman has scored five. Sam Reinhart and Verhaeghe have four apiece. Reinhart scored 32 combined special teams goals in the regular season.

What’s each team’s recipe to win?

Nugent-Bowman: Special teams. Just look at the numbers. They’re downright dominant.

The power play has been the backbone of this team since Glen Gulutzan was hired and assumed the duties ahead of the 2018-19 season. They had the most effective power play in league history last season. It perhaps won them the Los Angeles series on its own by scoring on half of its 18 chances. You can bet they’ll get more than the 11 opportunities they got against Dallas in this series.

For as good as the power play has been, the penalty kill has probably been even better. The Oilers killed off all 14 Stars man advantages last round — and got a short-handed goal from Mattias Janmark.

Russo: A relentless forecheck. When they have the puck, they usually grind teams into oblivion, which is a big reason they have gone large spurts in the postseason of not allowing shots or even shot attempts for 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 minutes at a time.

It was unbelievable at times the way they kept the Bruins and Rangers on their heels and from generating anything.

At five-on-five, they’re exceptional and in the third period, they have outscored opponents 25-11.

Their top three lines play the exact same way with the top two lines having star power Mr. Clutch, Carter Verhaeghe — the Panthers’ all-time leader in goals (24) and game-winning goals (nine, including five in overtime), two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov (all-time leading scorer with 54 points) and 57-goal scorer (27 on the power play) in the regular season Sam Reinhart.

Sam Bennett, who scored four times in the Eastern Conference final, and Matthew Tkachuk can light you up with Evan Rodrigues on the wing and the third line with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen has been outstanding since Vladimir Tarasenko moved to their line in Game 3 of the third round.

Which skaters need to play well for each team to win?

Nugent-Bowman: Remember those Detroit Red Wings teams from the late 1990s? They had the Russian Five. The Oilers’ fearsome fivesome doesn’t have a neat moniker, but they’re just as impactful to the Oilers when they’re on their game.

The Oilers quintet is backed by one of the best all-around defensive pairings in the sport, Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. They’ve been together for almost the entirety of Ekholm’s tenure with the club dating to Feb. 28, 2023, and have dominated during that span. The Oilers have outscored opponents 18-9 in the playoffs at five-on-five in almost 300 minutes.

Up front, McDavid and goal-scoring ace Hyman are typically joined by two-way contributor Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Draisaitl replaces him after successful penalty kills or when the offense needs a boost. These six players drive the bus for the Oilers and must do so in this series.

Russo: Barkov and defenseman Gustav Forsling.

It’s going to be fascinating at home to see whether coach Paul Maurice matches Barkov up against McDavid’s line or Draisaitl. Barkov is a powerful man who does it all for Florida and was on the ice for just one total goal by Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin in the first three rounds. He’s vying to become the first Finnish captain in NHL history to lead his team to the Stanley Cup.

And if you’re an Oilers fan, wait until you see Forsling. Maurice believes “in his style, he’s the best defenseman in the world.” His stick is as good as it gets, his gaps are usually dead-on and he’s so fluid going with his quick starts and stops and ability to skate backwards, sideways and forward. And when he wants to jump up in the play, he has scored some huge goals this postseason, like the series clincher to snap a late deadlock in Game 6 against Boston.

Oilers winger Evander Kane has eight points in 18 playoff games. (Perry Nelson / USA Today)

Who’s one under-the-radar player that should make a big impact on the series?

Nugent-Bowman: Evander Kane, who has eight points in 18 games.

Kane went through a miserable 21-game drought late in the season and hasn’t contributed anywhere near his 2022 playoff rates.

But Kane played hurt through the regular season and revealed before the playoffs he was suffering from a sports hernia. He was limited to just 4:39 in the conference final-clinching game due to injury but practiced Friday and is expected to play in Game 1.

He bemoaned midway through the last series how the Dallas Stars weren’t willing to engage much after the whistle. That shouldn’t be a problem with the Panthers.

Kane took Tkachuk out of the 2022 series with Calgary. The Oilers should be in good stead if he does anything similar this time around.

Russo: Anton Lundell, who has 12 points in 17 games.

The man they call “Baby Barkov” because there are so many similarities in their game scored the winning goal in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference final and has impressive chemistry with the hardworking, nifty Luostarinen.

GO DEEPER

Anton Lundell, the Panthers’ ‘Baby Barkov,’ is growing up fast in these playoffs

But Maurice trusts the 22-year-old with already 47 games of playoff experience in every area and would have no problem putting him head-to-head with one of Edmonton’s big centers if Barkov’s line or Bennett’s line isn’t out there.

What is one potential weakness for each team?

Nugent-Bowman: The defense behind Ekholm and Bouchard.

Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have really struggled as a pairing in the playoffs. The coaching staff split them up after Game 3 of the Vancouver series and mostly kept them apart. However, they skated together as a duo on Friday. Nurse really appeared to be coming around over the last few games. How will any time spent with Ceci affect that?

Philip Broberg, who spent most of the season in the minors, played the last three games ahead of Vincent Desharnais. That took an effective penalty killer out of the mix. Now, it appears Broberg will start the series on his off-side, so Brett Kulak can slide back over to the left. That comes after the Oilers mostly kept him away from right defense in the AHL, insisting it would be best for his development.

Russo: They’ve really shown none throughout the playoffs, but if there is one, it would be if Kris Knoblauch can get McDavid or Draisaitl out there against Florida’s third defense pair of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Dmitry Kulikov.

But so far, both players have been great in the playoffs and especially contributed on the penalty kill. Ekman-Larsson has resurrected himself and Kulikov hasn’t looked like the defenseman who couldn’t get in the lineup at times in the playoffs for Edmonton or Minnesota in recent years.

What are the biggest lineup decisions each coach has to make?

Nugent-Bowman: The varied lines and pairings the Oilers have used this week have looked quite different than what they iced when they closed out Dallas on Sunday.

There were tweaks during their Wednesday practice. Friday represented an overall shift. Everything changed aside from their first line and top defense pairing.

Based on what we saw on the eve of the Cup Final, the most notable players sitting out are the two fourth-line centers, Derek Ryan and Sam Carrick, and hardnosed defenseman Vincent Desharnais.

The Oilers have never used Ryan McLeod and Adam Henrique as their two bottom-six pivots. It appears that’ll be the case on Saturday. Should one of Ryan or Carrick be reinserted into the lineup, one of McLeod or Henrique is bound to be shifted to the wing — likely in a top-six role.

Desharnais is on the outs right now, but a physical opponent should suit his skill set well.

Forwards

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman

Evander Kane – Leon Draisaitl – Dylan Holloway

Warren Foegele – Ryan McLeod – Corey Perry

Mattias Janmark – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown

Defensemen

Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard

Darnell Nurse – Cody Ceci

Brett Kulak – Philip Broberg

Goalies

Stuart Skinner

Calvin Pickard

Russo: Maurice basically has two sets of fourth-line wingers that he has been alternating on the flanks of center Kevin Stenlund. Steven Lorentz and Kyle Okposo is one combo and Ryan Lomberg and Nick Cousins is the other.

Lorentz and Okposo played the final two games of the Rangers series — both victories, so Maurice is expected to open the Oilers series with Lorentz and Okposo in the lineup. But typically it’ll take one loss for him to make a switch to Lomberg, who played very well against the Rangers, and Cousins.

As far as the top three lines, Maurice is expected to open with the same ones he ended the Rangers series with and go with the same six defensemen he’s used all postseason.

Forwards

Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart

Matthew Tkachuk – Sam Bennett – Evan Rodrigues

Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Vladimir Tarasenko

Steven Lorentz – Kevin Stenlund – Kyle Okposo

Defensemen

Gustav Forsling – Aaron Ekblad

Niko Mikkola – Brandon Montour

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Dmitry Kulikov

Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky

Anthony Stolarz

Will Sergei Bobrovsky rise to the occasion against the Oilers? (David Berding / Getty Images)

What’s one matchup that intrigues you?

Nugent-Bowman: Coaching. There’s never been a bigger disparity between the two bench bosses in terms of regular season games than this series. Paul Maurice has coached 1,849 NHL games, whereas Kris Knoblauch — hired Nov. 12 — has guided the Oilers in just 69 contests.

However, Knoblauch pulled all the right levers in this run. He knew when to remove Stuart Skinner and when to put him back in. Elevating Dylan Holloway and benching Corey Perry pushed them over the top in the Vancouver series. Making three lineup changes heading into Game 4 against Dallas, including adding in Perry and Ryan McLeod, sparked a turnaround.

Knoblauch has shown he’s unafraid to make tough decisions. That could bode well for the Oilers — providing he continues to make the right ones.

Russo: How Sergei Bobrovsky fares against the star-studded, high-octane Oilers.

So far, so good for Bobrovsky, who never seems to be fazed and has allowed two goals or fewer in 10 of his past 11 starts. He’s got a 2.20 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage, which is not bad considering he had a sub-.900 save percentage until midway through the Boston series and allowed five goals in Game 3 of the Rangers series.

Series prediction

Nugent-Bowman: It’s hard to pick against Florida, but I’ll go with my gut and say Oilers in six. This is the “Cup or bust” season and this team has salary cap issues, an aging roster, limited draft capital and a poor prospect pool. It isn’t quite now or never, but it sure feels like the Oilers need to get the job done as soon as possible. Why not now?

GO DEEPER

Is this the last stand for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers?

Russo: Panthers in five. They’re healthy, on top of their game in every way and have the experience of last year’s Stanley Cup Final appearance on their side. The two things they don’t have are McDavid and Draisaitl, but when one by one the Panthers say “the job’s not done” and “we’re not finished” and don’t plan to endure last year’s disappointment again, I wholeheartedly believe them.

Required reading

If you’re an Oilers fan — or a hockey fan in general — who wants to catch up on the Panthers this postseason, here are a number of features from throughout the playoffs.

• The NHL’s new Patrice Bergeron, Aleksander Barkov
• On ‘Mr. Clutch,’ Carter Verhaeghe
• How did so many teams throw Gustav Forsling away?
• On Vladimir Tarasenko’s quote to score one big goal a series
• Paul Maurice has been must-see TV throughout his profanity-laced playoffs
• Sam Reinhart’s career year was a ‘fluke,’ or the Panthers hope others believe
• On Sergei Bobrovsky’s resurrection
• On Kyle Okposo’s road to what he hopes is his first Stanley Cup

And if you’re looking for more on Edmonton, check these out.

• Why Oilers’ long-awaited return to Stanley Cup Final is extra meaningful
• How NHL’s leading playoff goal scorer is thriving in the shadow of his superstar teammates
• Oilers’ Evan Bouchard proving why ‘no moment is too big for him’ in the playoffs
• ‘You’re great. You suck’: The good and the bad of landing that big NHL contract

(Photo of Kevin Stenlund and Connor McDavid: Lawrence Scott / Getty Images)