Box Office: ‘A Quiet Place: Day One’ to Battle ‘Inside Out 2’ for No. 1 as Kevin Costner’s Epic Gamble ‘Horizon’ Eyes Concerning $12 Million Start

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Will audiences care about the world of “A Quiet Place” without John Krasinski or Emily Blunt?

That’ll be the presiding question as “A Quiet Place: Day One,” a prequel story in Paramount’s post-apocalyptic horror series, hits theaters on Friday. The film, which takes place a while before the Abbotts (the family at the center of the prior two movies) were forced into hiding from terrifying, sound-hunting creatures, is expected to collect a solid $40 million to $50 million from 3,700 theaters in its opening weekend. The prequel cost $67 million to produce.

Lupita Nyong’o and Joseph Quinn star in “A Quiet Place: Day One” — set during the early stages of a New York City alien invasion — while “Pig” filmmaker Michael Sarnoski took over directing duties from Krasinski. Though spinoffs usually don’t do as much business as direct sequels, “A Quiet Place: Day One” is impressively eyeing a similar debut to its franchise predecessors. Krasinski’s nearly silent film “A Quiet Place” became a sleeper hit in 2018 with a $50 million start and ended its run with a stellar $340 million worldwide. The sequel, “A Quiet Place Part II,” was repeatedly delayed because of the pandemic but eventually opened in May 2021 with $48 million and took in nearly $300 million globally.

Also this weekend, Kevin Costner’s epic gamble “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1” is targeting a worrisome $10 million to $15 million in its debut in 4,000 theaters. Those ticket sales would be ruinous for the big-budget tentpole, though Costner and distributor Warner Bros. are counting on the film to break out in America’s heartland.

They hope that’s the case because a sequel, “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2,” is scheduled to hit the big screen in two months, on Aug. 16. It’s an unprecedented release plan, one that’s especially risky because each film carries a $100 million price tag. Warner Bros. believes the big bet will help the movies feel less like routine screenings and more like cultural events. But what happens to “Horizon: Chapter 2” if audiences don’t turn out in force for “Chapter 1”?

Costner has more on the line than Warners, which is only on the hook to pay for distribution. The “Yellowstone” star and “Dances With Wolves” director, on the other hand, reportedly spent $38 million of his own money to fund the movie series, which he wants to expand to four parts. Set before and after the Civil War, the story depicts the expansion of the American western frontier. Costner who directed, co-wrote and produced the two-part Western, stars alongside Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington and Jena Malone.

“Horizon” is not in danger of nearing the top of box office charts. Instead, “A Quiet Place: Day One” will attempt to dethrone Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” which has ruled over the box office for two consecutive weekends. After scoring a remarkable $101 million in its sophomore outing (one of seven films ever to clear $100 million in its second weekend), the animated sequel is aiming to add $55 million to $65 million in its third frame. So far, “Inside Out 2” has generated $369.7 million domestically and $762.1 million globally to stand as the highest-grossing movie of the year. In a matter of days, it’ll be the first film in 2024 to join the coveted $1 billion club. Anxiety, one of the new emotions that’s explored in “Inside Out 2,” is officially the “it girl” of the summer.