The summer travel season is once again in full swing, but if you’re looking to jet off to a sun-soaked beach, you may have some difficulty thanks to recent calamities at Boeing. The U.S. airplane manufacturer has been besieged with numerous problems over the past half-decade, and as a result some travel experts now say that summer 2024 will bring extra headaches for vacation-goers.
This includes issues with the aviation supply chain as Boeing struggles to temper concerns over the safety of its airplanes, particularly the problematic Boeing 737 Max models. This is likely to drive up the cost of traveling, meaning that some people may have to put that summer jaunt on the back burner. How are the issues at Boeing leading to problems in the skies?
What at Boeing is causing problems?
Boeing’s safety and supply chain problems over the past few years have left a trail of chaos. Most notable are the supply chain issues; after a series of high-profile incidents, including the door plug being blown off of an Alaska Airlines flight, Boeing saw “intense federal and public pressure to improve the quality of its planes” and as a result, the company’s “production of 737 Max jets has slowed to a trickle,” said Forbes.
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What does a “trickle” mean? This past March, Boeing delivered 24 planes to airline clients, according to Forbes, which was a 53% decrease year-over-year. During the first two weeks of April, the company delivered just three planes, according to statistics cited by Forbes from the aviation analytics firm Cirium. In all, U.S. airlines are on track to receive 301 passenger airplanes in 2024, Martha Neubauer, a senior associate at AeroDynamic Advisory, said to Forbes, which is 40% fewer planes than the number initially expected for this year. It should be noted, however, that this is not entirely on the shoulders of Boeing; the airline’s main competitor, Airbus, has also had supply chain issues and “accounts for 38% of the missed deliveries this year to airlines,” Neubauer said.
But the vast majority of the supply issues indeed come from Boeing and the 737 Max, especially after “U.S. officials ordered a limit on the aircraft’s manufacturing” following the Alaska Airlines incident, said Bloomberg. While this was “intended to focus Boeing on safety, the move has put a major dent in the production of new planes — with thousands already on back order.”
How will this affect summer travelers?
While planes may be halted, the demand for summer trips is still high, which means travelers will likely feel it in their wallets. Vacationers should “expect to pay more for plane tickets this summer, as airline capacity struggles to keep up with demand,” said Business Insider.
This is especially true because 2024 is slated to break records for the most air passengers ever, with the International Air Travel Association predicting 4.7 billion people taking a vacation this year. But the problems with Boeing are “really going to trickle down to the consumer,” said Yahoo! Finance. Fewer planes available to fly, combined with building demand, could “translate to higher ticket prices, and you could be paying more for your next trip.”
This means that airfares “should stay elevated through 2024, instead of tapering … as occurred last year after May,” Robert Mann, the founder of airline consulting firm R.W. Mann & Company, said to CNN. Mann noted that fare-tracking data from earlier this year has shown a spike; fares “booked in February for travel this year were 5%-6% higher than the same month last year, far outpacing overall inflation,” said CNN.
While most of the issues will involve domestic flights, there are international concerns too. Michael O’Leary, the CEO of Irish carrier Ryanair, said the airline may see its ticket prices rise up to 10% due to Boeing delivery delays, per Barrons. Ryanair is “doing our budgets based on a fare increase of 5-10%, which to me feels reasonable,” said O’Leary.
When will things get better? It’s hard to say. There is “uncertainty over when aircrafts will be delivered to airlines around the world that had been planning on receiving these as part of their summer program,” John Grant, a senior analyst from travel data company OAG, said to Brides.
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