U.S. auto sales are expected to slow during the second half of 2024

The auto data and research firm expects sales growth to slow during the second half of the year to end 2024 at 15.7 million units, roughly a 1.3% increase compared to 2023. And, unlike in recent years, growth is coming from commercial sales compared to more profitable sales to consumers.

“Overall, we’re expecting some weakness in the coming few months,” said Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke during a mid-year review briefing Tuesday. “We basically are making some assumptions that we can’t quite hold the pace that we’ve been seeing. But we’re not expecting a collapse either.”

Such circumstances are largely good for consumers, some of whom have been waiting years to purchase a new vehicle amid unprecedented supplies of new vehicles and record high pricing during the coronavirus pandemic.

They’re a headwind for automakers, many of which posted record profits due to the high demand and low availability of new vehicles during the global health crisis. Wall Street has been predicting vehicle pricing and profit challenges for most automakers compared to the record or near-record levels of years past.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty that lies ahead, and it may make recent sales successes hard to build upon,” Charlie Chesbrough, Cox’s senior economist, said during the briefing. “We are concerned that the second half of the year cannot maintain the growth we’ve seen so far.”

Rental, commercial and leasing are showing signs of double-digit growth, while Cox expects retail share of the overall industry to be down 9 percentage points from 2021 to roughly 79%.

The sales “winners” through the first half of this year are expected to be General Motors, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor, according to Cox.

Chesbrough said if Toyota can continue its growth, it may once again challenge GM to rank as the top-selling automaker in the U.S. The Japanese automaker topped all other automakers for the first time ever in 2021.

Underperformers included Tesla, with sales estimated to be down 14.3%, and Stellantis, which is forecast to be down by 16.5% through June. Honda beat Stellantis in U.S. sales during the first half of the year, pushing the Chrysler and Jeep parent to No. 6 in sales, down from its recent No. 4 rank.

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares earlier this month said the company is correcting what he described as “arrogant” mistakes by himself and the company in the automaker’s U.S. operations that led to sales declines, bloated inventories and investor concerns.

“Higher supply means we officially bid farewell to the seller’s market that has defined the last four years … which means further deterioration in new vehicle grosses and dealer profitability,” Smoke said.