Expert warns Tories not to ‘overreact’ as polls predict a bloodbath

A leading expert has warned Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives not to “overreact” to dire poll predictions they are heading for a bloodbath at the election.

A bombshell survey suggests the party could be left with just 53 MPs – and Rishi Sunak would not be among them.

But Lord Hayward, who is also a Tory peer, said that the party had lost fewer than predicted seats in the council elections in May.

“And I see no evidence to believe (the polls) are any more accurate six weeks later than they were then,” he said.

Tory candidates are braced for the party to reallocate election resources after a series of dire poll results.

If the Savanta survey is correct, it would be the first time a sitting prime minister has lost his seat.

The Tories could also be left battling the Lib Dems to avoid third place, with Sir Ed Davey’s party set to gain 50 MPs.

Other polls also show that big hitters including Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly and Jeremy Hunt are all also on the cusp of being ousted.

But Lord Harward warned the Conservatives – and voters – not to “overreact” to the number of seats the Tories are forecast to take.

He told The Independent: “The parties and voters should not overreact to these polls.”

“If you look at local government election results, (the polls) were directionally correct, but got the numbers wrong. And I see no evidence to believe they are any more accurate six weeks later than they were then”.

He added: “It is the issues that matter, not the polls”.

Earlier, Professor Sir John Curtice said the polling evidence in the election so far suggests that the Conservatives are heading for their worst ever result “by a country mile”.

In recent days the Conservatives have urged voters not to give Labour a huge ‘supermajority” at Westminster.

On Thursday, cabinet minister Michael Gove admitted a Tory victory would be “a stretch”, but said he still thought his party could win.

He added: “We are absolutely the underdogs. It’s incredibly tough, we’re up against it. But it is possible and you’ve got to believe that in order to ensure that you do the electorate a service.

“So, of course we’ve got to point out what the consequences would be if Labour were in, what the consequences would be if Labour get a majority as some of these polls – and polls are snapshots, not predictions – as some of these polls indicate that they might. But you’ve got to fight it.”

Mr Gove pointed to polls which had got the outcome wrong in the past, including the 2016 Brexit result.

“It’s like in any contest, as the minutes tick down to the final whistle, then the scale of the challenge – the mountain – looks bigger. The difference between a sporting contest and an electoral one is, of course, some votes have been cast as postal ballots, but there are still people who are making up their mind.

“Now, there are still a significant number of people who are undecided. Will they all break for us? Experience would suggest not, but you’ve got to believe that it is possible. You’ve got to believe that it matters to fight as hard as possible.”

He also denied polls had an outcome on how the paty campaigns.

“My sense from previous campaigns has always been to acknowledge that some of these decisions, allocations of resources and so on, will be taken by people who have got a lot more information than is available to us as ministers or candidates.”