Devils-Flames trade grades: Jacob Markstrom is a big upgrade in goal at a low price

The trade

Devils get: Goalie Jacob Markstrom (Flames retain 31.3 percent of his salary)

Flames get: Defenseman Kevin Bahl, 2025 first-round pick (top 10 protected)

Sean Gentille: When the initial reports on this one started trickling out, the dots seemed easy enough to connect. The Devils, submarined in part by poor goaltending in what was supposed to be a breakout season, had identified Jacob Markstrom as the solution to their problems, and they’d been chasing him for months. His no-movement clause had been an issue — but those sorts of issues are often resolved, especially when the acquiring team is, y’know, good. Most of all, a solid prospect pool and a lottery pick in 2024 meant that Tom Fitzgerald had options available to meet any ask.

“Markstrom to the Devils for the No. 10 pick next week? Fair enough on both sides. Everyone gets a B-plus” is where I landed before we knew the details.

Then, we learned the details — and then, the grades changed. This is nothing less than a heist for New Jersey, who acquired the goaltender of their dreams for … what exactly? The No. 10 pick is staying put. The Devils’ prospect pool is intact. Their best NHL-ready young players are still in the fold. And, maybe most shockingly, they’re saving nearly $2 million on Markstrom’s cap hit for the remaining two years of his deal.

None of this is to say Markstrom is perfect; he’s not quite a franchise guy, mainly because he’s prone to the performance swings that seem baked into 95 percent of NHL goaltenders. He is, though, a firmly above-average starter with the potential to, at times, look like something more. Thanks to Calgary’s salary retention, that’s exactly what the Devils are paying him to be.

Maybe most importantly, last season, only Connor Hellebuyck and Jordan Binnington had him beat league-wide in Goals Saved Above Expected. That’s great for anyone, let alone someone who’s about to replace the Vitek Vaneceks, Nico Dawses and Akira Schmids of the world. The Devils didn’t miss the playoffs solely because of their goaltending — an injury-decimated defense was another huge factor — but they came pretty close. Now, they’ve turned that weakness into a strength for a protected pick and a third-pair defenseman.

That brings us to Calgary’s end of the deal, which starts with the obligatory disclaimer: GM Craig Conroy was in a tough spot because of the no-movement clause. The market was what it was. They’re not entirely incorrect — but they’re still excuses, and they’re similar to what we heard at the trade deadline. Conroy, tough as his situation may be, has yet to win a trade, and he’s running low on tradable pieces. It helps to have Dustin Wolf in the fold as the heir apparent, and it certainly seems like a large chunk of the Flames fan base was ready to move on from Markstrom. That doesn’t make this one any less underwhelming, especially given the very real possibility that Markstrom drives that 2025 first-round pick somewhere into the 20s.

When you lose a deal in this many ways — no prime pick, no prospect, no impact lineup player, money sent the other way — the grade can’t be anything but harsh.

Devils grade: A
Flames grade: D-plus

Shayna Goldman: Finally, the Devils bring in a true No. 1 goalie. Management’s plan to keep things status quo in net with Vanecek and Schmid to start the 2023-24 season burned them. So for the last few months, the question has been when, not if they were going to find a legitimate netminder to support this up-and-coming team. It didn’t happen at the deadline, with New Jersey moving out Vanecek’s contract and bringing in Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen. But that set them up to make a big move in the offseason — and here it is with the acquisition of Markstrom.

Markstrom is a really strong fit for the Devils. He’s coming off of one of his best seasons yet, where he saved almost 29 goals above expected in 48 games, according to Evolving Hockey’s model. Pre-deadline, according to their model, Markstrom’s numbers were extra flashy which may have been a result of him making some timely saves off broken plays and giveaways. That ability should fit well behind the Devils’ speedy system which suffered through some really dicey defensive breakdowns last year.

With Markstrom behind them, the Devils should be able to play to their strengths next season and do some damage in the East. So the fact New Jersey managed to swing this deal with salary retention and without moving the 10th pick or Alexander Holtz is a real feat. Fitzgerald addressed the team’s biggest area of need without over-leveraging themselves on just one position. The term on Markstrom’s contract also clicks for New Jersey given his age, 34, and their cap situation. It buys management two years to assess Schmid and Daws to see if either one will be ready to take over. And if management can sign Dawson Mercer to a bridge deal this summer, it sets him up for a raise when Markstrom is off the books.

As for the Flames, woof.

Calgary didn’t have a ton of leverage here. The goalie’s no-movement clause created one hurdle. And the vibes took a huge hit when Markstrom spoke about how unhappy he was with the entire situation back in March. So as much as management may have expressed that they were content going into next season with Markstrom, this was a move that had to happen.

Still, the return underwhelms. It feels like the Flames overplayed their hand and missed their best opportunity to bring back a haul from Markstrom ahead of the deadline. Bahl brings back a left-handed shot with size, and a 2025 first-rounder isn’t nothing, either. But Markstrom, especially with salary retained, is worth a lot more than that. Calgary should have been able to use the fact that the Devils were desperate for a No. 1 goalie to their advantage, and they really missed their chance to do that.

Devils grade: A
Flames grade: C-minus

Eric Duhatschek: There are two ways to evaluate the Markstrom deal: One is to assess the value on the basis of what was available. Two is to assess the deal on the basis of what was anticipated. Most thought the Flames could get more for a goalie of his stature. The return seems a little light. In that scenario, it’s a complete win for the Devils and you’re left asking, what were the Flames thinking? Why couldn’t they pull the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft out of the Devils – and failing that, at the very least, land Alexander Holtz?

Essentially, the correct answer is it was a crowded goalie market and the Devils had all the leverage. When they didn’t budge on surrendering a top 10, the options for Calgary were limited. Either shop Markstrom elsewhere, knowing he had a full no-move and would be extremely selective about where they move him, or take what they could. They did the latter.

In Bahl, essentially, they hope they’re getting a younger version of Nikita Zadorov. He’s a 6-foot-6 defenseman, 230 pounds, only 23, who was drafted 55th in 2018, traded originally to the Devils in the Taylor Hall deal with Arizona and played every game for New Jersey last year, partly because of all their injuries on the blue line. With Dougie Hamilton returning to health and Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes firmly established on their NHL roster, Bahl was available.

Usually, youngish defensemen with that size get incrementally better with every passing season. That presumably is Calgary’s hope — that he can play in its top six right away, replacing some of the minutes Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev gave the team last year, while landing a future first-rounder that will help its rebuild.

Calgary now has two first-rounders in 2024, two in 2025 and two in 2026 (the latter from the Hanifin deal to Vegas). Would you have liked the top 10 in 2024? Absolutely. That would have given the Flames back-to-back picks, at Nos. 9 and 10. That didn’t happen.

This, in effect, is delayed gratification — pushing the team deeper into a rebuild and turning the goaltending job over to Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar, likely in a tandem. So a defensible return, but not ideal. But it IS a first-rounder and a young player for an asset, Markstrom, that cost them nothing to acquire in the beginning. He signed originally as a UFA.

For the Devils, though, excellent work. They got a goalie to help them get to the next level of their development. However, you may want to parse the raw numbers on Markstrom last year, if you rely on the eye test. He was their best player, either he or MacKenzie Weegar. He makes the Devils an instant playoff contender, after missing out this past year.

The Devils have a couple of young goalies in the pipeline who can develop at a more leisurely pace while Markstrom and Allen hold down the duties in the moment. It’ll give new coach Sheldon Keefe something his predecessors didn’t have — the occasional big save with the game on the line. Fitzgerald used the leverage he had to extract a proven starter without meaningfully disrupting his NHL lineup.

A great short-term outcome for them. For Calgary, the returns will be assessed years down the road, as the rebuild accelerates.

Devils grade: A
Flames grade: B-minus

(Top photo of Jacob Markstrom: Terence Leung / NHLI via Getty Images)