Nuclear warning issued over Chinese arsenal

China’s nuclear weapons stockpile is growing rapidly and the country may have deployed nuclear warheads for the first time, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warned in a new report.

China expanded its nuclear forces from approximately 410 warheads in January 2023 to about 500 by January of this year, said the institute in its annual report on global security and armaments, published Monday, numbers roughly consistent with Pentagon estimates released in October.

And in a first for the East Asia country, “China may also now be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime,” SIPRI wrote, estimating two dozen such warheads are currently deployed.

In terms of size, China’s nuclear stockpile is a distant third compared to Russia and the U.S. whose thousands of warheads apiece comprise nearly 90 percent of the world’s total. The U.S. and Russia also account for nearly all of the world’s strategically deployed weapons.

Most of the nine nations known to possess nuclear weapons are either building out their nuclear arsenals or have plans to do so, according to Hans Kristensen, an associate senior fellow with the institute and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country.”

Asked about SIPRI’s estimates Monday during the Chinese foreign ministry’s regular press conference, spokesperson Lin Jian referred the reporter to China’s 2019 white paper on defense. The document stresses that China maintains a no-first-use policy and restricts its nuclear capabilities to “the minimum level required for national security.”

Lin took aim at Washington’s nuclear policies, which had a “serious impact” on global stability.

“If you are truly interested in issues about strategic security, I would also recommend that you turn your attention to the U.S.’s heavy investment in upgrading its nuclear triad, and increase in nuclear-sharing and extended deterrence.

China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a written request for comment.

The SIPRI report follows a senior White House aide Pranay Vaddi’s warning last week that China, Russia, and North Korea are “all expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck pace.”

If this continues, Vaddi said the U.S. should be prepared to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons.

The gross number of the world’s nuclear weapons is declining amid Russia’s and the U.S.’s disassembly of their retired warheads.

However, this is coinciding with a rise in the proportion of functional nuclear weapons in reserves, SIPRI Director Dan Smith said.

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” the institute quoted him as saying.