Celtics-Pacers predictions: Anonymous scout, coach, exec pick Eastern Conference finals

— Josh Robbins, Sam Amick, Darnell Mayberry

When the Boston Celtics face the Indiana Pacers in the 2024 Eastern Conference finals, it will be a matchup few people expected to see when the regular season began.

Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and boosted by key offseason additions Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, the Celtics were considered by league GMs as a co-favorite to win the NBA title. On the other hand, the Pacers were an afterthought in the East despite the presence of up-and-coming point guard Tyrese Haliburton. But here they are.

Boston, which lost Porziņģis to a calf injury during the first round, ousted the Miami Heat in the first round and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round in gentleman’s sweeps. Indiana defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round in six games and the New York Knicks in the second round in seven.

Are there caveats involved? Yes. The Celtics benefited from Jimmy Butler’s absence in the first round and Jarrett Allen’s absence in the second round (plus Donovan Mitchell missing games 4 and 5). The Pacers faced a Bucks team that didn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series and Damian Lillard for two games and a Knicks team that was undone by an almost bizarre number of injuries.

Boston won three of its five regular-season games against Indiana, but it should be noted that Indiana’s mid-January addition of Pascal Siakam could change the equation. Siakam was on the Pacers’ roster for only one of those matchups, a 129-124 Celtics victory on Jan. 30.

So how will the Eastern Conference finals play out? To help answer that question, we enlisted the help of a league scout, coach and executive and asked for their analyses and predictions. We granted them anonymity because their employers did not permit them to discuss other franchises publicly. Anonymity also provided them the freedom to be completely candid with their assessments.

(Editor’s note: The experts’ comments have been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.)

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers

Scout’s outlook: The addition of Siakam is huge for the Pacers, obviously. It gives them a true go-to guy. I wasn’t sure how he would be integrated, but he’s fit in quite well. I love the way they play. They share the ball. It all starts with Haliburton. They move it. It’s not an accident that they’re the highest-scoring team, because they play team basketball and they’ve got a lot of guys who can shoot it. I think their bench is better than Boston’s bench. I would take (Obi) Toppin, (T.J.) McConnell, (Ben) Sheppard and (Isaiah) Jackson over (Sam) Hauser, (Payton) Pritchard and (Luke) Kornet. …

The absence of Porziņģis is going to be a factor since he’ll miss the first two games, and I think that gives the Pacers an advantage. I mean, who would you rather have, (Myles) Turner or (Al) Horford? Right now, I think you’d rather have Turner.

The pressure’s on Boston. It isn’t enough for them just to beat Indiana. This is like free money for Indiana. The Pacers can kind of play freer, and they showed they could play better defense at times in the Knicks series. Winning Game 7 on the other team’s court? Yes, the Knicks were depleted, but still, that’s hard to do under almost any circumstances. That’s got to give them a boost.

So I’m not counting out the Pacers. I’m not saying they’re going to win, but I think it’s going to be a competitive series. Boston’s got their work cut out for them. Tatum and Brown, those two guys have got to be at a very high level. The Celtics were the best team in the league, but they’re minus Porziņģis; they’re probably not the best team in the league without Porziņģis. Home court always matters. … That’s an advantage for Boston. …

Jrue Holiday, he’s kind of like an X-factor. He’s so much in the background. Sometimes you don’t even know he’s on the floor. But he’s capable and has won (a title). I think he needs to produce in this series because Indiana can score. A lot of this is going to revolve around pace. The slower, the better for Boston.

Coach’s outlook: I think with Kristaps out, the series will probably do the same thing that Boston did against Cleveland. Indiana sneaks one of those first two and then Boston locks in and takes care of business and goes 4-1 in the series.

Indiana is going to have to shoot the s— out of the ball like they did (Sunday). They’re not going to stop Boston. They’re going to have to outscore them. And I think it’s a tough order when you’ve got Jrue Holiday on Indiana’s best player. They’re going to make Tyrese’s life tough and try to force him left everywhere. They can put size on him. Jaylen Brown can guard him. It’s just can those other guys make shots when he sprays it out and gets off of it?

(Myles) Turner being able to make that 3 killed New York. (Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau) is so traditional, so he kept (Isaiah) Hartenstein in coverage, which allowed Turner to get loose on all those 3s. Boston has done more switching in the past (so) they’ve experienced that switching so they can easily switch Turner if it gets to that where he’s killing them with 3s. They can force him to try to post or offensive rebound. And they just have more size to be able to deal with Turner.

But obviously, for Boston it starts with Tyrese. You’re going to have to try to slow him down, keep him out of transition and try to make his life miserable. But I also think you’re concerned with (T.J.) McConnell coming in and changing the pace of the game. You’ve got to find a way to remove his spark and remove his energy from the game. He’s sparking them with defense, confidence, leadership and timely buckets. And he’s a pace-changer. He’s just an unsung hero.

Executive’s outlook: Celtics in five. The Celtics are in a weird spot, where they just steamrolled two teams 4-1 and 4-1 in the playoffs, and people are like, “What’s wrong with the Celtics?” And they did it without one of their best players. Yes, they do rely a lot on jump shooting. But they’ve got like six dudes that can do it, and they just have one more player (than the Pacers), it feels like. Even with Kristaps out, they always have one more player that Indiana’s not going to be able to account for.

I do think Indiana is gonna push pace even more than usual and see if getting into the Boston bench deeper than Boston wants to go and/or wearing down their guys that played so much, a little like they did to the Knicks, is (a possibility). If I was in Rick Carlisle’s shoes, that’s what I’d be doing. But the Celtics are well-rested. They’ve got two of the top 10 players in the world, and Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are just fantastic two-way players. The amount of dribble penetration Indiana got is gonna go down, even without Kristaps behind them to rim protect. I just think Boston has too much firepower. All the respect for what the Pacers have done, but I just think Celtics in five.

Scout’s pick: Celtics in six
Coach’s pick: Celtics in five
Executive’s pick: Celtics in five

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(Top photo of Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)