The Four Biggest X Factors of the 2024 NBA Conference Finals

The 2024 conference finals are set, and no matter their outcome, the NBA will crown a new champion in June. To preview both matchups, here’s a look at one player each from the Minnesota Timberwolves, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, and Indiana Pacers whose value, volatility, and indisputable impact are worth a deeper look. There’s a very good chance all four will have a hand in deciding which teams advance to the NBA Finals, for better or worse.

Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves

We’ve reached a point in the Gobert discourse (again) where his awkward, unsightly aesthetic has almost completely clouded his true impact. He was criticized ad nauseam—by fans, commentators, and fellow players on TV who don’t understand the difference between a personal slight and keen analysis—for, among other things, the unforgivable crime of allowing an all-time tour de force by the best player on planet Earth in Game 5 of the second round.

But when the dust settled and Minnesota beat Denver, reality was laid bare: Gobert is a winning player. The NBA playoffs aren’t a test of machismo; they’re a constant battle of resolve, intelligence, and skill. The four-time Defensive Player of the Year’s contributions in all those areas might look different than those of other award-winning talents, but he contributes nonetheless. This was his 12th playoff series and the 11th in which he averaged a double-double. It’s silly to denigrate someone so familiar for everything he can’t do instead of appreciating, with clear eyes, all that he does.

Against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves were plus-49 with Gobert on the court and minus-13 when he sat. Yes, he was pulverized by Nikola Jokic one-on-one. He also provided incredible back-line help that neutered multiple areas of Denver’s vaunted offense, whether it was deterring the lob to Aaron Gordon, allowing the low man to stay home in the corner, or giving Jokic’s primary defender a safety net. Then, on offense, this dude has been a foul-drawing monster all playoffs long, a skill (yes, a skill) that shined in Game 7 when he towed Minnesota into the bonus.

The only players to draw more fouls per 100 possessions in this postseason (minimum 200 minutes) are Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic, with Jayson Tatum right behind. That’s basically this year’s MVP ballot!

Gobert’s defensive assignment against the Mavericks will be more traditional than it was in the second round; Dallas doesn’t employ one of the most singular centers in league history. When his man sets a ball screen, he’ll have to be up higher on the floor than usual, though, constantly cognizant of double drags, empty corner pick-and-rolls, and an offense that is far more obsessed with the 3-point line than Denver was.

The Mavericks have gorged on corner 3s all year, especially in these playoffs. P.J. Washington (more on him later), Josh Green, and Derrick Jones Jr. have combined to hit 39 percent of those shots through two rounds. Most have been wide open. Gobert’s job will be to take some of those off the table—by allowing teammates to stay home and not rotate behind the play—and make Dallas exchange them for harder 2-point shots off the dribble while limiting lobs to and putbacks from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. His hands will be full (the more aggressive Chris Finch makes his defensive scheme, the more opportunities Dallas will get to feast behind the arc), but there aren’t many, if any, rim protectors who are better equipped to deal with such a daunting challenge.

Al Horford, Boston Celtics

During Boston’s Finals run in 2022, Horford averaged 35.4 minutes and 12 points per game while drilling 48 percent of his 3s—including an absurd 15-for-24 showing against the Golden State Warriors. Since then, Horford’s role has narrowed, and his playing time has shrunk. The Celtics traded for Kristaps Porzingis last June, which allowed them to better manage their 37-year-old big man’s workload. Horford came off the bench for the first time in his career this season. He averaged a career-low 26.8 minutes and never appeared in a back-to-back.

It’s unreasonable to expect the oldest player left in these playoffs to replicate past production or, more importantly, be as spry as he once was. But as Porzingis nurses a strained calf that’s sidelined him since April 29, the Celtics are leaning on their 17-year veteran more than they probably wish was necessary. (The night Porzingis got hurt, Horford played the entire fourth quarter for the first time since February 13.)

The basic on/off numbers from Round 2 suggest Horford is still an invaluable contributor. Against the Cavs, the Celtics were a team-high plus-53 with Horford and a team-low minus-22 without him. (None of his teammates were even close to having the same impact; in five games against Cleveland, Boston maintained a positive scoring differential when every player except Horford hit the bench.) Their defense allowed a muggy 104 points per 100 possessions with Horford and a problematic 123.6 points per 100 possessions with his backup, Luke Kornet. (In the playoffs, his plus-18.6 net rating is first among all players who qualify.)

But those who watched Celtics-Cavs didn’t have to look too hard to spot the scuff marks. Before he turned the clock back in Game 5—a vintage, vibrant, two-way pièce de résistance that featured six 3s and several momentous hustle plays—Horford was, at times, a liability on both ends. He missed all 10 of his 3s in Games 3 and 4, and he was targeted repeatedly by Donovan Mitchell. Regardless of whom Horford was on, Horford’s man was eager to set ball screens that forced him to defend a pick-and-roll.

On this play, Mitchell could’ve gone at Horford or Sam Hauser. He chose the former, then easily created space for a stepback 3:

Here’s another step-up screen set by Isaac Okoro along the sideline. Horford’s primary job here is to take away the 3, which he does, to the delight of Boston’s coaching staff. But being that high on the floor leaves Horford vulnerable off the bounce, and Mitchell takes advantage.

When Horford was in a deep drop—a coverage Boston eventually abandoned—Mitchell wiped his hands and said thank you:

Life got a little easier for Horford after Cleveland’s superstar went down with a calf injury, and he repeatedly stonewalled Darius Garland in Game 5. But the Celtics weren’t exactly puffing their chest with him on the floor. Boston pre-switched whenever it could to keep Horford away from the ball. He hid on Okoro and Marcus Morris and changed matchups on the fly. Here he is instructing Jrue Holiday to take Evan Mobley to avoid coming out to the perimeter to deal with a dribble handoff or eventual pick-and-roll.

And here’s Tatum switching onto Mobley before Garland gets a second screen that makes Horford come out to contest his 3:

ost of this was a smart, well-executed strategy, and the teammates behind him did a pretty good job of shrinking the floor. And despite how vulnerable he looked at various spots throughout the series, the Celtics were happy with Horford’s performance (when asked to address it in public).

“I don’t think [Horford] struggled defensively in the series,” Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla said after Game 5. “What goes into winning each game is different. What goes into winning each series is different. Once Mitchell went out, we made some adjustments defensively about how we were gonna guard, and it was up to really all the guys to take on the individual challenge. We went to more switching, and they had to guard their yard and defend at a high level. And I thought Al did a great job with that.”

But they aren’t out of the woods. How much of what Horford did in Game 5 is sustainable for an entire series against Indiana’s explosive offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton, a palpitating whir (at his best) who will watch what Mitchell did before he got hurt and think he can do the same?

Even if Porzingis returns in the conference finals, Horford’s ability to hold up in any coverage that requires him to be on the perimeter will be critical. If Mazzulla chooses to switch, can Horford keep the ball in front and compel jumpers that are then rebounded by smaller teammates? Or will he be more in a drop, coaxing midrange pull-ups from some capable shooters? If Horford struggles to execute the game plan in a situation where he’s thrust into heavy minutes, this series could go longer than anyone expects.

P.J. Washington, Dallas Mavericks

P.J. Washington stands on business. Even in games when his impact is hardly felt for the first 40 minutes—as was the case in Game 6 against the Thunder—Washington has found ways to make humongous plays and shots. His go-ahead free throws with 2.5 seconds left and Dallas trailing by one were the stuff of legend.

It’s been an eye-opening playoff run for Washington. On the Charlotte Hornets, he was costume jewelry. In Dallas, he’s a two-carat diamond. The Mavericks obviously saw Washington as a dramatic upgrade over Grant Williams. But no one saw his performance against the Thunder coming. Not Mark Cuban, Nico Harrison, or Jason Kidd. And certainly not Mark Daigneault, whose gameplan incited Washington to set Oklahoma City’s defense on fire in the middle of this series.

In Games 2, 3, and 4, Washington’s fingertips were volcanic ash. He scored 29, 27, and 21 points, launching double-digit 3s in all of them. Exactly half went in. With Maxi Kleber on the shelf, this was the outside threat Dallas needed; it was plus-21 with Washington on the court and minus-21 when he sat.

When he was matched up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 6, either picking him up in transition or on a switch, Washington’s individual defense (in front of some terrific help) was phenomenal. He shadowed the ball, didn’t fall for pump fakes, and vacuumed up all the space SGA is used to creating for himself in the midrange.

Against the Timberwolves, he’ll likely spend plenty of time guarding Towns—solid, without necessitating any compromising double-teams—and Dallas will be comfortable enough switching him onto Anthony Edwards or Mike Conley when engaged in a pick-and-roll.

On offense, Washington’s success behind the arc makes it harder for defenses to blitz Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He’s another option who can’t be ignored, complicating help rotations when Lively or Gafford find themselves in the middle of the floor with a four-on-three advantage.

The Wolves won’t put two on the ball, though. As already mentioned above, they’ll drop Gobert (to varying levels) and live with a rushed jumper as Jaden McDaniels breathes down the shooter’s neck. That scheme either lets help defenders stay home or allows them a beat longer to tag the roller and get back to their man, a.k.a. Washington. How he handles those closeouts will be a critical part of this series, which, if Washington looks anything like he did once the Thunder started running him off the line, may be good news for the Wolves.

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Can a franchise player also be the biggest X factor in a playoff series? Tyrese Haliburton says yes. When he has confidence in his stepback 3 and aggressively drives downhill with a scorer’s mentality, Haliburton is a tempo-bending instigator. In the paint, at his best, he’s a virus infecting the defense’s motherboard.

But if he’s passive and unable/unwilling to create individual offense—a recurring theme in these playoffs—the two-time All-Star may spend his first conference finals veering dangerously close to a net-negative player. (In 69 regular-season games, Haliburton took fewer than 10 shots six times, including the night he hurt his hamstring. In seven playoff games against the Knicks, he did it twice.)

Haliburton’s defense is a few ticks past liability against even the most inept offenses. Against the best offense in the league, he may be a debilitating pressure point, poked and prodded until it gets the mismatch it’s looking for.

It’ll take the best basketball of Haliburton’s life for Indiana to reach the Finals. This year, the Pacers’ worst net rating against any team was against … the Celtics (minus-11.9 points per 100 possessions in five games). A lot of that is thanks to a 51-point loss in which Haliburton didn’t play, but his true shooting percentage in the other four matchups was just 52.9. One of those games was his first back from a season-defining hamstring injury and another was the game in which Haliburton suffered said injury, but that number still isn’t very surprising. Boston can switch every screen, on and off the ball, mucking up Indiana’s half-court offense and exasperating Haliburton’s tendency to go east-west instead of north-south. Against the Celtics, and particularly in Indy’s in-season tournament win, he made some difficult and extremely deep shots with a hand in his face. He also had a tough time dealing with their cadre of elite on-ball defenders.

Boston has a ton of creative options when it comes to how they want to match up on defense. (For example, they can stick Jrue Holiday on Myles Turner, put Tatum on Haliburton, and stick Horford on Pascal Siakam, allowing a seamless switch that would neutralize Indy’s 1-5 pick-and-roll. Turner’s effectiveness in these spots will help determine how efficient Indiana’s offense can be.)

When Haliburton has the opportunity to get downhill on a big man (assuming Horford starts in a drop and Porzingis stays there), he has to trust his floater against a defense that refuses to haphazardly help off the 3-point line. In the playoffs, he’s shot 60 percent in the non-restricted area of the paint, attempts the Celtics are happy to concede.

And unlike the second round, Haliburton isn’t likely to get quality spot-up chances from an opponent that’s bullied into a double-team. The Celtics have several large bodies, including Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Horford, to put on Siakam.

On the other end, Haliburton should shiver watching film of what the Celtics did to Garland in Round 2. The Pacers will have an interesting question to ask themselves when Hali is forced into an action. Should he hedge out, like he did against the Knicks, and give up the occasional open 3 to whoever he’s guarding (be it White, Holiday, or Payton Pritchard)? Or should the Pacers, on occasion, do exactly what Boston wants and switch, inviting more inert, isolation offense from a team that’s at its best when the ball is getting pinged around the floor against a flailing scramble?

There’s no good answer here, which is why Boston is so heavily favored to win. But if the Pacers want to be competitive, Haliburton needs to resemble a speed bump on defense (at the very least), while steering a Ferrari when his team needs to score.