Let’s play scout: Who should the Guardians draft at No. 1? – Terry Pluto

CLEVELAND, Ohio – The MLB Draft is Sunday and the Guardians have the No. 1 overall pick.

I’m doing a scouting report on the projected top four players: Georgia’s Charlie Condon, Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana, Florida’s Jac Caglianone and West Virginia’s JJ Wetherholt.

Scouting has dramatically changed over the last 25 years. Yes, it’s analytics-driven. I dug up some numbers. I used the D1Baseball website, along with Baseball America and ESPN.

I also listened to the D1Baseball draft preview podcast. That featured David Seifert, a former Phillies scout who now works for the website. Two others from the D1 site were on the podcast: Aaron Fitt and Mike Rooney. They also had Chris Burke, a former MLB player who does a great job covering college baseball for ESPN.

Since we’re dealing only with four college hitters, it’s important to know hitting stats are inflated. More home runs have been hit in Division I in 2024 than any other time in his century. Several baseball people believe the balls have been “juiced up,” not sure why. But they are flying.

Three of the four players set their school’s all-time single-season home run record in 2024: Condon (37), Caglianone (35) and Bazzana (28).

As you read this, it’s very possible I know just enough to have everything completely confused. But here we go:

THE BASICS: Condon led Division I baseball in homers (37) and batting average (.433). It’s a rare combination. That happened in only his second college season. The 21-year-old was a red-shirt as a freshman. I recently wrote a story where Scott Stricklin (Condon’s first college coach) explained how Condon went from “true walk-on” to a star.

MORE BASICS: Caglianone hit more homers (35) than he had strikeouts (26). It’s a remarkable stat, especially since he also batted .419 (1.419 OPS) and had a 30-game hitting streak at one point this season. He increased his walk total from 17 (2023) to 58 this season. He cut his strikeouts from 58 to 26. He also homered in nine consecutive games in 2024.

A COMMENT: I talked to a college coach who has competed in the SEC. “Cags (Caglianone) has big league written all over him. He’s a physical specimen (6-foot-5, 250 pounds). He has the raw ability to be a superstar.”

HIT THE BALL IN THE AIR: I remember some coaches telling me there was nothing wrong with hitting ground balls when I was a kid. Those coaches were wrong. The pros are looking at a player’s line drive and fly ball rate. They hate high ground ball rates. Caglianone had a 42% ground ball rate, the highest of the four players.

STRANGE CAG STAT: In 316 plate appearances for Florida, Caglianone had only eight doubles and no triples. Perhaps it was due to the high ground ball rate. He either hit singles, or when he put the ball in the air – it flew over the fence.

MORE WALKS THAN STRIKEOUTS: All four players had more walks than strikeouts: Condon (57/41), Caglianone (58/26), Bazzana (76/36) and Wetherholt (30/17).

THE WOOD BAT FACTOR: Last summer, Bazzana played in the Cape Cod League, where top college players use wooden bats. He hit .375 (1.037 OPS) and was the league’s MVP. Wetherholt batted .321 (.978 OPS) in the same league, but had 32 plate appearances compared to 158 for Bazzana. Condon was 12 of 46 (.261, .648 OPS) in the league. Caglianone didn’t play. Those stats are part of the reason many scouts consider Bazzana the purist hitter in the draft and most MLB-ready.

A PHONY WORRY?: Some evaluators mention Condon hit much better at home (.500, 26 HR) compared to on the road (.342, 11 HR). I looked into Georgia’s home park. Foley Field is 350 feet down the left-field line, 404 in center and 314 in right field. The power alleys are 370 feet. Condon is a right-handed hitter, meaning he pulls the ball to left field – where it’s much deeper than right field.

DIGGING DEEPER: In 2023, Condon batted .410 (12 HR) at home compared to .387 (13 HR) on the road. No real difference. Of more significance, he batted .412 in the tough Southeastern Conference.

EVEN DEEPER: Condon played 37 games vs. teams that went to the NCAA tournament, hitting .357 with 19 HR. I could only find that stat on another player – Bazzana hit .345 with 6 HR in 15 games vs. teams in the NCAA tournament.

CHASE RATES: That means swinging at balls out of the strike zone. Caglianone was at 37%, Condon at 23%. This often is a sign of trouble to come. The Guardians always worried about Oscar Gonzalez swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone, and it eventually led to problems in the Majors. Despite swinging at more bad pitches, Caglianone fanned only 8% of the time compared to 13% for Condon. Caglianone also is gradually lowering his chase rate while he doubled his walk rate from 2023 to 2024.

HE CAN PITCH: Caglianone is a lefty first baseman who also has been clocked at 100 mph as a pitcher. In two years with Florida, he had a 12-6 record and a 4.45 ERA. In 148 innings, he fanned 170 and walked 105. He’s wild. He would be a pro prospect just as a pitcher, but not likely a first-round pick. He does a nice job with the glove at first base. Can he play the outfield? Scouts seem split on that question. He has had little experience there.

HE CAN PLAY SEVERAL POSITIONS: Condon recently learned to play third base. The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder has played a lot of outfield, which probably will be his position if drafted by Cleveland.

HE JUST HITS: Bazzana is a native of Australia who is obsessed with hitting and analytics. A lefty hitter, he hits lefties and righties. He walks a lot. He has the highest “barrel rate” and lowest “chase rate” of the four players. Barrel rate means hitting the ball with the barrel of the bat, where you are most likely to hit it hard.

A COMPARISON: I’ve heard scouts compare the 6-foot, 199-pound Bazzana to Jason Kipnis, only with a chance to be even better. One theory is the Guardians will draft Bazzana (a very safe pick) and convert him to the outfield. Another theory is they’ll leave him at second base. If he moves through the minors fast, then keep him at second and move Andrés Giménez from second to shortstop.

TOO SHORT?: The Guardians have several position players listed under 6-foot: José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez and Giménez. That won’t stop them from drafting Bazzana.

ABOUT WETHERHOLT: He is the hardest to evaluate because he missed six weeks in 2024 with a hamstring problem. He’s also had that before. In 2023, the West Virginia shortstop batted .449 (1.304 OPS) with 16 HR in 55 games. Heading into 2024, he was ranked the top college prospect in the country. He has a sweet lefty swing. He batted .331 (1.061 OPS) with 8 HR in 36 games. The hamstrings were an issue. He went from 36 stolen bases in 2023 to six in 2024.

MY OPINION: I’d stay away from Wetherholt with the top pick. There are two prime power guys (Condon and Caglianone) and one exceptional hitter (Bazzana) who seem more impressive.

COMING IN HARD: Condon hit 5 HR and had a 1.865 OPS with pitches at least 95 mph. Caglianone didn’t hit a homer off a pitch at least 95 mph. I feel uncomfortable with this data because I don’t have a full breakdown. It was mentioned on the D1Baseball Podcast.

BIGGEST UPSIDE: Most talent evaluators believe it’s Caglianone, who some have even compared to Bryce Harper. He also could be the biggest bust.

SAFEST PICKS: It’s Bazzana and Condon, in that order. Wetherholt has his fans, and they’ll say the 2023 Wetherholt also belongs on this list. Nonetheless, his injuries should be a concern. I’ll give my recommendation for Cleveland’s choice in a separate column.