What a dip in jobless claims means for job seekers

Initial jobless claims for the week ending in July 6th ticked lower to 222,000, according to the US Department of Labor. Madison Mills and Brad Smith report more on the labor market and what the dip in jobless claims means for job seekers.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl

Video Transcript

17,000 fewer Americans filed for unemployment claims last week down to 222,000.

That’s according to the US labor department.

So what does this mean for everyday job seekers?

Our very own Madison Mills joins me here in studio with more.

Hey, Matty, hey Brad.

So if you are a job seeker right now, this is not the best environment that we have seen over the course of the past four years following the pandemic.

But I want to run through why we’re seeing that in some of the numbers today, as you mentioned, claims falling by 17,000 to 222,000 now and fewer Americans file for unemployment benefits on a weekly basis.

That is indicative of layoffs.

So see this number falling means that layoffs are not happening as frequently.

That’s good.

If you’re currently in a job where I’m seeing some toughness and where economist rather are seen some toughness is if you are currently out of a job and you are looking now, this is showing up in the continuing claims data because that has risen recently, which is indicating that folks are having trouble finding new jobs we also see the total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits that did go down a little bit, but it’s still at 1.8 5,000,004 week average of claims also fell.

But interesting to see that we’re continuing to have that overall unemployment rate over 4%.

That’s the data that we got off of that critical jobs report.

And just in terms of anecdotal data, we getting the sense of just that tightness, your stomach right now from folks, especially people who have been looking for a job for a while.

We’re not seeing openings as frequently and we get that data in something called the job opening labor turnover survey, which of course, you know about Brad, but the openings piece has put a little bit of pressure on the labor market, particularly for workers who have been out of work and are still looking.

But at least on the layoff side, we’re seeing lay off sticking to around 1% which is a nice low number also impacts the wage improvements that some of those workers who are changing jobs are looking for as well.

I mean, whether it be because you got a bad boss or because you just want to make a little bit more or get into an industry that you actually have a true aspiration to be in as well.

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A lot of those job switchers look for a strong labor market to be able to use that to say ok. Now I can perhaps make a little bit more in the next job that I step into here.

It’s interesting as well within the headline figure that we’re talking about of 222,000 that is still below this four week moving average here sitting at about 233,500 right now for the past four weeks at this juncture.

Yes.

So another reminder that we aren’t necessarily seeing these broader layoffs yet.

One potential example that might be tough is we saw the layoffs coming from into it yesterday.

The company citing A I as the reason behind some of those layoffs and that is a challenge that’s going to, I think continue to be in the news for workers.

But you bring up a great point on what we’re talking about here, Brad of the wage piece.

And we of course, know that that is the best way to increase your earnings is by switching jobs, not by getting a raise at the job you currently have.

So if people aren’t able to switch jobs, that could certainly be a head wind for our personal earnings and where possible employers don’t be stingy.

Ma.

Thanks so much.

Thank you.