Russia’s frenemy China is quietly trying to dampen Putin’s influence

• Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are meeting in Kazakhstan Wednesday. 
• It comes amid increasing tensions between two of the group’s most powerful members. 
• Russia and China are competing over influence in Central Asia. 

The leaders of a club of countries touted by Russia and China as a counterweight to Western global power are meeting this week in Kazakhstan.

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet China’s President Xi Jinping.

During their discussion, they will reportedly seek ways to expand the organization as part of their shared mission to roll back US global power.

But despite their “no limits” partnership brokered over shared enmity toward the US and its NATO allies, there are growing differences between frenemies Putin and Xi.

Ukraine has shifted the balance of power

The leaders are in fierce competition for influence over the original members of the SCO — the Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

The SCO was formed as a regional security pact, but has in recent years expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran. Belarus, another opponent of NATO, is expected to be admitted this week.

The Central Asian republics were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are seen as traditionally part of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.

But the Ukraine war has shifted the balance of power.

Russia’s Ukraine invasion has eaten up the Kremlin’s resources, money, and energy, while countries trading with Russia run the risk of incurring Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, Beijing has been quietly seizing advantage, brokering trade deals, and building political influence in the region.

“The war in Ukraine has proven to the central Asian countries that the diversification of their ties with the world is key to their successful existence in the region,” Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Guardian.

China is building car plants and power stations in Ukbekistan and Kazakhstan, brokering surveillance software deals, and expanding its direct railway line into Kazakhstan, to further strengthen trade links.

Trade between China and Central Asia grew by 27% in 2023 to $89 billion, according to Chinese customs data.

Although Russia is likely to be concerned by the developments, it cannot do much about them.

A lopsided partnership

Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for diplomatic and economic support amid attempts by the West to isolate it over the Ukraine war.

“The importance of Chinese aid and indirect support for Ukraine takes precedence for Moscow and will shape its approach toward Beijing as long as the confrontation with the West continues,” wrote Emil Avdaliani, a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, in January for the Centre for European Policy Analysis.

Russia is seeking to strengthen trade with the Central Asian republics and, according to reports, is using them to obtain goods banned under Western sanctions. But it can’t compete with China’s economic might.

While Russia has brandished its ties with China as proof of the failure of the West to isolate it, it’s a friendship that comes at a steep cost.

“We are friends with Russia but at the same time, we are looking for opportunities,” Mirshohid Aslanov, founder of the Tashkent-based think tank Center for Progressive Reform, told The Wall Street Journal. “Very eagerly, we are looking eastwards.”