Joe Biden’s Mental Fitness Is a National Security Threat

Joe Biden Is Making America Less Safe: Many political debates come down to one line. President Gerald Ford’s declaration that “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration” may have handed the presidency to Georgia governor Jimmy Carter. In 1980, Ronald Reagan closed his debate with Jimmy Carter by asking, “Are you better off than you were four years ago,” a simple question that juxtaposed the metaphorical forest with Carter’s penchant for explaining the trees. Seeking re-election four years later, Reagan hobbled his challenger, former vice president Walter Mondale with his famous “I will not exploit for political purposes by opponent’s youth and inexperience” quip. In 1988, Governor Michael Dukakis hemorrhaged support when he appeared more technocratic than emotional when asked whether he would seek the death penalty should someone rape and murder his wife.

A single line will not define the June 27, 2024 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but rather the sheer spectacle of a president who appeared confused and unable to articulate even the simplest points. Democratic operatives might panic as they scramble to replace the incumbent and presumptive nominee. Biden, meanwhile, appears so far unwilling to drop his election bid.

Pundits navel-gaze, but the real storm might not be political. The ramifications of the exposure of Biden’s incompetence is profound. America’s adversaries are sophisticated. They readily factor America’s political calendar into their decision-making. Adversaries might hedge to formalize agreements before U.S. elections if they believe they could get a better deal from a new administration. Conversely, they might rush diplomacy if they fear the alternative to whomever is in the White House.

Enemies also know the United States is most distracted prior to an election, or in the weeks after as a new administration prepares to take office. Adversaries have agency. They often time attacks to maximum advantage. Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi bombed Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in the short period between Vice President George H.W. Bush’s 1988 election and his 1989 inauguration. By the time investigators found Libyan fingerprints on the attack, Reagan was already out of office. The length of investigation undercut momentum for retaliation.

Likewise, Russian President Vladimir Putin could have invaded Georgia at any time, but he timed his assault to coincide with the U.S. election campaign between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain. George W. Bush was a lame duck, and the difficult legacy of the Iraq war undercut partisan will to trust Bush in his last weeks. Obama and McCain sparred over reaction with dueling press statements, but neither had the power to act. By the time Obama triumphed on election days, Russia’s land grab was already a fait accompli.

In September 2020, it was Azerbaijan’s turn as it invaded the self-governing Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh as Trump and Biden battled it out on the campaign trail. President Ilham Aliyev timed his invasion literally to get away with murder.

The stakes this year are higher and go beyond the president being a lame duck. American enemies believe Biden to be weak and enfeebled. Presidents and prime ministers who have seen Biden as both president and vice president have told me that he is not the same man.  After the debate fiasco, Chinese media mock Biden as “habitually confused.”

Danger is looming. China has made no secret of its desire to take Taiwan by force, and Russia openly covets not only Ukraine but also Moldova and the Baltic states. Iran may now also accelerate its efforts to overwhelm Israel directly or by proxy. The list of possibilities is longer. President Nicolas Maduro is deeply unpopular in Venezuela, but an invasion of oil-rich Guyana could rally nationalists around his floundering regime. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s is in a similar position, and may calculate now is the best time to wipe out the Kurds in northern Syria regardless of U.S. forces partnering with them to keep the Islamic State at bay. Kim Jong-un in North Korea is volatile on the best of days, but the belief in U.S. paralysis may be too tempting to pass up.

The Joe Biden Problem Is Bigger Than We Realize

Biden’s fumbles may have started a clock toward war across the globe, with adversaries and enemies having more than four months to exploit Biden’s apparent mental incapacity.  It is one thing to debate replacing Biden as nominee, but that may no longer be enough to keep peace. International security might now depend on the 25th Amendment governing presidential disability and succession.  Vice President Kamala Harris may not exude competence, but she is in charge of her own faculties, a low-bar but a necessary one nonetheless.

This article was originally published in the National Security Journal.