Friday could be the busiest U.S. air travel day ever. Here’s what to expect at SFO, OAK, San Jose

Friday could set a new record for U.S. air travel, as the Transportation Security Administration expects to screen over 3 million passengers departing from airports for the first time ever.

It would be another apex following June 23’s record-setting 2,996,193 passengers screened as cheaper airfares, a strong dollar and the upcoming July 4 holiday push more people to travel. More than 32 million departing passengers are expected to be screened by TSA between June 27 and July 8, up 5.4% from last year.

But the Bay Area’s three major airports don’t expect to break records set in 2019, officials said.

San Francisco International Airport will be busy, with around 166,000 passengers expected on Friday. That’s 12% below the all-time daily record of over 189,000 passengers screened on Aug. 30, 2019, said SFO spokesperson Doug Yakel. Friday’s projection is also below the over 168,000 passengers on June 30, 2023, the last Friday of June last year.

There are multiple reasons for the gap. As the Chronicle previously reported, the number of Chinese tourists coming to San Francisco — the biggest spenders of any foreign country before the pandemic — remain below 2019 levels. The number of weekly flights between SFO and China is also below pre-pandemic levels. Travel between China and the Bay Area has been dampened by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. State Department telling U.S. citizens to “reconsider travel” to mainland China. The economy of China is also in a slump, with an ongoing real estate crisis.

Remote work and fewer Moscone Center conventions booked in 2024 compared to last year has also dampened business travel activity.

SFO will benefit from last week’s early reopening of a runway that had been closed since January for construction, leading to more delays. The $2.5 billion Harvey Milk Terminal 1 is also complete.

TSA wait times at SFO on Friday afternoon were an estimated 0 to 15 minutes, according to the agency’s app.

United Airlines, the biggest carrier at SFO, expects its busiest period across the U.S. ever between June 28 to July 8, with over 5 million passengers nationwide. That’s up 7% compared to last year. United’s top destinations from SFO include Honolulu, London, Frankfurt, Boston and Hong Kong.

San Francisco Bay Oakland International Airport, which was renamed last month, expects around 40,000 passengers on Friday and over 100,000 between Friday and Sunday. Friday, along with July 3 and July 7, are expected to be the busiest travel days. Daily comparisons to 2019 weren’t available, but the airport’s passenger volume is about 80% to 85% of 2019 levels, said spokesperson Kaley Skantz.

Skantz said Oakland airport is benefitting from new airline routes, including Delta’s new nonstop service to Atlanta and Viva Aerobus soon flying to Monterrey, Mexico. Those additions occurred before the airport’s controversial renaming, which spurred a lawsuit from San Francisco.

“We are hopeful for new opportunities,” she said.

Oakland TSA wait time estimates were 0 to 15 minutes on Friday afternoon. At San Jose Mineta International Airport, wait times were 15 to 30 minutes.

San Jose airport said there are 350,000 plane seats slated for departures and arrivals between June 27 and July 5, but no passenger projection was provided. However, passenger volume is expected to be below last month’s Memorial Day travel week, said Ana State, an airport spokesperson.

Overall, San Jose’s 2024 passenger volume is expected to be around 10% higher than last year, but still around 20% below 2019.

“Business travel is still not at the level we saw before the pandemic,” State said. “Now we are navigating changes around low cost travel.”

That includes more flights from low cost carriers like Frontier and Zipair, which flies to Tokyo. Thanks to booming tourism to Japan, Zipair expanded from three flights a week last year to daily flights this year, State said.

Reach Roland Li: roland.li@sfchronicle.com; Twitter: @rolandlisf